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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #2,301
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:39pm Oct 12, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi all,

After a few hours of scratching my head, squinting my eyes, pulling my hair, shifting in my chair, flipping pages in my notes, making some calculations, intensely watching all asset classes and analyzing every time frame on my charts, I finally have a plan to make a plan.

The Euro has made a huge comeback from the lows of last Monday at 1.3144
All asset classes priced in US Dollars have followed along.
The USD Index plummeted as a result
Definitely Risk-On, but what triggered it?

Now that I have had enough time to analyze everything,...
Excellent post PT. Really appreciate how you analyze the fundi's in a way I can understand it. I see you as a very disciplined trader and once I am awarded vouching privileges, you have one coming from me
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #2,302
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:43pm Oct 12, 2011 1:43pm
That is some well thought out analysis work, thank you very much for that! I think also that we are looking at hope in the system instead of hard numbers, once the main push is gone then all that is left is reality and that is Greece is cooked and the Euro is floating on a cloud.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #2,303
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:44pm Oct 12, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
This week's move needs to consolidate. When I get a signal that the time has come, I will post it. Until then or until I am convinced that we are in a longer term bull market, I am flat.
 .
That's the main reason I trade mid-term sentiments. For Longer-terms you have to stand those "fake hopes" or pullbacks .

I prefer to trade those fake hopes as long as they would last for the mid-term, or pullbacks, as long as they would last for the mid-term.

Nice analysis... now, I guess we have to wait for Trichet (again) ...

Pbh
  • #2,304
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:46pm Oct 12, 2011 1:46pm
Quoting Hardpike
Thank you PT
amazing analysis. just a pleasure.

I hope you are right... I am close to the "total disaster"

thank you

regards
I would not hold any shorting positions... Trichet is coming out in a few minutes. He was bullish last time, what would you expect this one.

But as long as you're not overleveraging, I hope you can rescue your trades with shorter-term ones

Good luck

Pbh
  • #2,305
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:48pm Oct 12, 2011 1:48pm
I must give you credit for that PT an excellent analysis! Very clear and concise! I like you am waiting for a turnaround. I think what will turn first is commodities. Gold and Silver theyre bothe playing out a bearish flag on the one day chart. I still feel there is further upside maybe 1723 on Gold and 35 on silver. However i don't see the same in Brent it could be me missing something but the upside looks very strong. But when we see a turnaround in these i think we can start to sell euro again. I made my views clear earlier that the 150 sma will provide a strong line of resistance failure to break and hold above that and I think we can resume shorting. Once again great analysis keep us posted
  • #2,306
  • Edited 2:03pm Oct 12, 2011 1:53pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi all,

After a few hours of scratching my head, squinting my eyes, pulling my hair, shifting in my chair, flipping pages in my notes, making some calculations, intensely watching all asset classes and analyzing every time frame on my charts, I finally have a plan to make a plan.

The Euro has made a huge comeback from the lows of last Monday at 1.3144
All asset classes priced in US Dollars have followed along.
The USD Index plummeted as a result
Definitely Risk-On, but what triggered it?

Now that I have had enough time to analyze...
Its such a blessing This Thread members lucky to have you mate..Its not about your analysis or whatever,Its about your kindness,Generous,share and giving at here...Luck & healthy always being with you

and so for gofer pips..,you dont post for the few hours,,generous,kind and good minded guy
Success already in your hand Mate..I know that
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #2,307
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:00pm Oct 12, 2011 2:00pm
Thank you PT. That's the only thing I've seen today that made sense.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #2,308
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:09pm Oct 12, 2011 2:09pm
PT, outstanding macro, just pulls it all together. I could just jump short with two standard lots right now....if only the world made sense like you. Thanks again for all your efforts and education to those of us whose emotions and strong opinions can make us more gamblers than traders at times.

Now that the thank you is out of the way, after 3PM on rally days after this many days on the Dow is often less than kind to bulls. We shall see.
  • #2,309
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:12pm Oct 12, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting tashkent
continued by Trichet speech after half an hour. what a busy day
Or did you mean this: http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/20...111012.en.html ?

Pbh
  • #2,310
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:13pm Oct 12, 2011 2:13pm
Quoting ntrprz
PT, outstanding macro, just pulls it all together. I could just jump short with two standard lots right now....if only the world made sense like you. Thanks again for all your efforts and education to those of us whose emotions and strong opinions can make us more gamblers than traders at times.

Now that the thank you is out of the way, after 3PM on rally days after this many days on the Dow is often less than kind to bulls. We shall see.
Whatever how confidence you are I think you still must trade wisely..thats the lesson for everyone and personaly I am that should learn and bear in mind

Trade wise and safe mate
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #2,311
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:20pm Oct 12, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting FXMindset
Whatever how confidence you are I think you still must trade wisely..thats the lesson for everyone and personaly I am that should learn and bear in mind

Trade wise and safe mate
That's what I mean. Exactly, I am picking up better money management techniques through this thread. Being honest, I have never played with enough that if I lost the whole thing it was more than a bad night at the casino, and until recently I treated it a bit that way at times. I am learning that perhaps patience is a virtue, a new lesson that you wonderful folks here are teaching me because I think long term, forex is a place every investor who plans for long term success NEEDS to be, do to the truly global nature of the market. That factor will only increase, imagine if you had a free floating Yuan? Someday it will and people with assets better be ready to protect their assets not just with traditional instruments, but through direct currency hedging.

So what better place to learn?!?!?!?!?!
  • #2,312
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:22pm Oct 12, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting Pbh
Or did you mean this: http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/20...111012.en.html ?

Pbh
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...s_closed=40523
this speech is not official though, therefore marked as of middle impact
As Above, So Below
  • #2,313
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:25pm Oct 12, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting ntrprz
That's what I mean. Exactly, I am picking up better money management techniques through this thread. Being honest, I have never played with enough that if I lost the whole thing it was more than a bad night at the casino, and until recently I treated it a bit that way at times. I am learning that perhaps patience is a virtue, a new lesson that you wonderful folks here are teaching me because I think long term, forex is a place every investor who plans for long term success NEEDS to be, do to the truly global nature of the market. That factor...
Honestly have been visited some threads...I can said that this the most nice thread i ever visited one,Piptrapper controlled it very well....and some members here really nice...

However,its all about attitude..


Good Job!
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #2,314
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:29pm Oct 12, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Today, the ECB, the FED and the BOJ, in coordinated action, dumped USDs and JPYs and bought up EURs while Trichet was on TV talking up the Euro Zone saying all will be rectified, Greece will not default and the banks will survive, while the BOJ was saying that they are going to put a floor on the JPY.

Not so fast. Nothing is solved. The sovereign debt still exists and will keep growing. Greece will still default. Obama still has no jobs bill. The housing sector in the US is still in shambles... and a whole load of other stuff I am sure I don't...
Good job, PT. When I think of "fundamental analysis" - I am really only trying to think about what may be the underlying conditions that produce the dominant capital flows. In these critical conditions most of the "news items" shown on the FF factory panel, for instance, are irrelevant imho.

How are the largest players going to move their money? Fx is a vast liquid market and conditions always are changing, but sometimes things are quite stark. When the CB's are intervening in the market all other considerations take a back seat. They can inject the types of sums that move an active e/u market 1,000 pips/week, 300+ pips a day, 50-100 pips an hour maybe - with minimal pullbacks.

A trader must abandon any impetus to try to counter such moves, and ideally, to go with them. If you are a TA trader, you don't have to know what the CB's might be doing - you can see it on your charts: the hot legs up with only a flag in response, or at best a small fractional pullback - those are buying opp's, not places to counter.

Anyway, I'm done on e/u for the week and probably won't risk any more capital until I see big hands moving the rate one way or the other.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,315
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:32pm Oct 12, 2011 2:32pm
Thank you everybody for all the nice comments.

In reality, it is not me that keeps this thread orderly and free of noise and nuisance. It is you the members that do that. All I did was create the thread and write the rules. Everybody has chosen to follow the rules and support/promote the spirit.

I have the power to block posters who try to disrupt this thread. So far the block list is empty.

So, I want to say thanks to all of you for keeping this thread clean and healthy

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,316
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:36pm Oct 12, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting The Fool
Good job, PT. When I think of "fundamental analysis" - I am really only trying to think about what may be the underlying conditions that produce the dominant capital flows. In these critical conditions most of the "news items" shown on the FF factory panel, for instance, are irrelevant imho.

How are the largest players going to move their money? Fx is a vast liquid market and conditions always are changing, but sometimes things are quite stark. When the CB's are intervening in the market all other considerations take a back seat. They can...
  • #2,317
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:37pm Oct 12, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
In closing, I have not very often seen a retrace on a daily chart that has moved so far, so quickly without at least pulling back to a previous fib level. This week's move needs to consolidate. When I get a signal that the time has come, I will post it. Until then or until I am convinced that we are in a longer term bull market, I am flat.

Cheers
PT
Dear PT, very good fundi work! Thanks my friend!
you know my stand, I try to be like soros.

my take is, ppl are scared to short, bc they believe shes gonna go up. but they dont want to buy at these levels either, waiting for some pullback.
a lot of ppl like you and I, wanna wait & see.

lets see what next.

i think looking at charts and eyes will get used to prices and feel comfortable to buy at these levels. 3700 stops were big and deep, once broken, i dont think its gonna be that easy to fall back.. we'll see..

NO MAS, NO BIAS!
  • #2,318
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:39pm Oct 12, 2011 2:39pm
What's on my mind? EST

Today:

8:30 pm EST

AU employment change 10.1K e, -9.7K p
AU unemployment rate 5.3% e, 5.3% p

Friday:

8:30 am EST

US retail sales 0.5% e, 0.0% p
US core retail sales 0.2% e, 0.1% p

Good economic data expectations ... Fake hope is about to start playing harder . As we all can see, today we have AU employment changes with good expectations: Employment chante: +20K and Unemployment rate: Unchanged.

Therefore, I expect to continue to see risk appetite in the meanwhile. As long as the Euro is concerned, I already gave my opinon a few posts earlier.

I would probably wait for a techinal indicator buy signal before jumping in the market (Asian session open, or during it).

Here's a chart

Pbh

*e: expected
*p: prior
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie 2.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #2,319
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:46pm Oct 12, 2011 2:46pm
Quoting Pbh
What's on my mind? EST

Today:

8:30 pm EST

AU employment change 10.1K e, -9.7K p
AU unemployment rate 5.3% e, 5.3% p

Friday:

8:30 am EST

US retail sales 0.5% e, 0.0% p
US core retail sales 0.2% e, 0.1% p

Good economic data expectations ... Fake hope is about to start playing harder . As we all can see, today we have AU employment changes with good expectations: Employment chante: +20K and Unemployment rate: Unchanged.

Therefore, I expect to continue to see risk appetite in the meanwhile....
Pbh, this is the EurAnalysis thread not the AudIstic thread
However, since you are mentioning a currency that has shown more strength than the euro today, you may also want to have a look at USDCAD. But no comments on it unless you want to start a CadAmonium thread
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,320
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:51pm Oct 12, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Pbh, this is the EurAnalysis thread not the AudIstic thread
However, since you are mentioning a currency that has shown more strength than the euro today, you may also want to have a look at USDCAD. But no comments on it unless you want to start a CadAmonium thread
. Most of my analysis are based on risk appetite and risk aversion sentiments. Let's see if I can get a vouch and start the Risky thread (lol, I'm not that creative ).

Gotta read post #1 again and keep focused as I'm usually policing

Pbh
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