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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,801
  • Sep 29, 2011 9:42am Sep 29, 2011 9:42am
Quoting Alorente
At what level do you get back in? Iīm still holding, by the way.
I don't know what level....I had so many gains that I just wanted to lock them in. This is the dilemma! If you are true, then the big money is still to be made.

My theory is that USD/JPY is in no hurry to get back up. So I thought about sleeping on it and see what is the price at midnight (CET) or first thing in the morning (in Europe). I'm thinking 76.50-60 = get back in.

But with better US GDP numbers, the BOJ could have the wind in the back with an intervention, i.e. it sticks more. This is a difficult, twisted, and dangerous game. Looking for all the advice I can get!
  • #27,802
  • Sep 29, 2011 9:44am Sep 29, 2011 9:44am
Quoting freiburg
I don't know what level....I had so many gains that I just wanted to lock them in. This is the dilemma! If you are true, then the big money is still to be made.

My theory is that USD/JPY is in no hurry to get back up. So I thought about sleeping on it and see what is the price at midnight (CET) or first thing in the morning. I'm thinking 76.50-60 = get back in.
76.80 hold very well so far
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,803
  • Sep 29, 2011 9:49am Sep 29, 2011 9:49am
Quoting FXMindset
Whats your R2 level Yaoming?
76.865
  • #27,804
  • Sep 29, 2011 9:52am Sep 29, 2011 9:52am
The candle may back to 76.350..
According to my chart...
Comment is welcomed..
  • #27,805
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:03am Sep 29, 2011 10:03am
Quoting yauming
The candle may back to 76.350..
According to my chart...
Comment is welcomed..

I think your charts are out of order cause mine are showing 79.00+
And anyone getting out now must not like making the green stuff
Happy Trading
  • #27,806
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:07am Sep 29, 2011 10:07am
This is what we need to happen to turn the US around and get King Dollar back on the table:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...FyY2giOiIifQ==
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,807
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:20am Sep 29, 2011 10:20am
Quoting extract
I think your charts are out of order cause mine are showing 79.00+
And anyone getting out now must not like making the green stuff

Hi extract,

May be u r right..
I just follow my chart and post it..
Thanks for giving comment..
  • #27,808
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:21am Sep 29, 2011 10:21am
One thing that is driving this is the talk of BOJ easing being announced in October. This will be just one of many weapons Japan will use over the next few weeks to ensure a longer term and more effective weakening of the Yen. No surprises here, they have been giving plenty of hints over the last 6 weeks.
  • #27,809
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:33am Sep 29, 2011 10:33am
Quoting SIgurs
Hmmmm .... both Gbp and Eur far better movers towards the Jpy, both up more than 1% and further off all time lows when compared to the Usd (up 0.25%).

Doesn't look like a break out to me, imo just a dead cat bounce.
I choose to see it in a different way. The Dollar Index is DOWN today .37% and yet USD/JPY is UP .35%

Itīss normal that the Euroīs appreciation today is larger than the dollarīs because of the steep fall it has suffered during the past weeks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,810
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:37am Sep 29, 2011 10:37am
Quoting freiburg
I don't know what level....I had so many gains that I just wanted to lock them in. This is the dilemma! If you are true, then the big money is still to be made.

My theory is that USD/JPY is in no hurry to get back up. So I thought about sleeping on it and see what is the price at midnight (CET) or first thing in the morning (in Europe). I'm thinking 76.50-60 = get back in.

But with better US GDP numbers, the BOJ could have the wind in the back with an intervention, i.e. it sticks more. This is a difficult, twisted, and dangerous game. Looking...
I would forget about intervention. If it happens, great, but it is unpredictable. It should not be a factor in your investment decision.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,811
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:40am Sep 29, 2011 10:40am
Quoting yauming
The candle may back to 76.350..
According to my chart...
Comment is welcomed..
On my chart, R1 is at 76.78. R2 is at 76.91.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,812
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:42am Sep 29, 2011 10:42am
Quoting extract
I think your charts are out of order cause mine are showing 79.00+
And anyone getting out now must not like making the green stuff
I agree with your positive assesment, but what are the factors that make you believe that? I would really like to know...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,813
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:01am Sep 29, 2011 11:01am
if it drops a little bit more I'll start to scale back in.
  • #27,814
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:02am Sep 29, 2011 11:02am
Quoting freiburg
I learned my lesson in a BIG way, and from then on, I always use stop loss. ALWAYS. Religion.
Inevitable I believe we all have to learn that one the hard way.
There's something physiologically negative about a stop loss when you first enter the market, especially if you are fortunate enough to taste immediate success. "Huh?? Why would I want to stop? I'm winning here!!" *pushes button....win money--PUSHES BUTTON WIN MONEY!!!*
Then it happens, and the shame and guilt wash over you while you hate on yourself for not heeding the warnings from veteran traders.
But most of us, I hope, eventually apply a positive connotation to stop loss and are thankful we learned that lesson before losing everything.

Concerning interventions:
I've been lucky enough to catch two as they happened and feel that it's my moral and financial obligation to prepare for the next one according to my rules and with the knowledge I have of the past instances; mind you, that ain't much but I've done my homework and my MM can withstand a move against me if my first TP isn't banked.
However, if it happens again and the yen or franc do go through the first two BS and TP, then I'm fairly certain the pips will continue to roll in exponentially.
Meanwhile, I'll sit back and continue to hone my trend/news/S&D trading skills with the goal of living comfortably in a Central or South America.
We all prepare for a trading day, week, month or even a year in some instances. Why not prepare for an intervention too?

Sorry to butt in with the long post.
Anyway, hope everyone is doing well today, both physically and financially.
Enjoy the day and green pips to all!!
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #27,815
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:08am Sep 29, 2011 11:08am
Quoting Alorente
I choose to see it in a different way. The Dollar Index is DOWN today .37% and yet USD/JPY is UP .35%

Itīss normal that the Euroīs appreciation today is larger than the dollarīs because of the steep fall it has suffered during the past weeks.
Here's what I see ... rejection of price over and over again. After the initial sell off on August 4th, price was rejected at the 77.50 level several times, resulting in a drop lower to the low 76's. It now has tried numerous times to take out 77.00, so far without result ... again rejection of price.

Based on the above it wouldn't surprise me to see a drop below 76.00, unless someone steps in and says 'enough is enough' ! So yes, I think that intervention is, under current constellation, the only way this pair will move up considerably whilst at the same time being able to hold on to it's gains.

Just my 2 cents. Differences of opinion ... that's what's great about message boards like this.
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  • #27,816
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:09am Sep 29, 2011 11:09am
Ok, all in again!! SL in place off course.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL USD/JPY LONGS!!!!
  • #27,817
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:21am Sep 29, 2011 11:21am
Quoting SIgurs
Here's what I see ... rejection of price over and over again. After the initial sell off on August 4th, price was rejected at the 77.50 level several times, resulting in a drop lower to the low 76's. It now has tried numerous times to take out 77.00, so far without result ... again rejection of price.

Based on the above it wouldn't surprise me to see a drop below 76.00, unless someone steps in and says 'enough is enough' ! So yes, I think that intervention is, under current constellation, the only way this pair will move up considerably whilst...
I agree with most of what you say. It takes a long time to turn an ocean liner around and the steep decline from 123 for the past 4 years is a whopper of an ocean liner. Of course you will have many price rejections at points that would begin to indicate a trend change. I would be suspicious of it if it was otherwise. I also agree that it may go to 75 or even 70 before the final turn and you have to protect yourself in case one of those abrupt shakeouts happen, but I do believe that we are in the process of trend change. Itīs like making sausage. Itīs ugly to see but it is happening. It is in important trend changes like this one where the big fortunes are made.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,818
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:26am Sep 29, 2011 11:26am
Donīt feel bad. Change to the daily chart and youīll see the explosive nature of this moment. Donīt worry about the pennies. Concentrate on the dollars. The daily chart shows the first meaningful resistance at 77.30. When it gets there Iīll be watching like a hawk how it behaves.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,819
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:29am Sep 29, 2011 11:29am
Quoting Alorente
Donīt feel bad. Change to the daily chart and youīll see the explosive nature of this moment. Donīt worry about the pennies. Concentrate on the dollars. The daily chart shows the first meaningful resistance at 77.30. When it gets there Iīll be watching like a hawk how it behaves.
Please ignore this message. It was in answer to a PM I received and I posted it to the board instead.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,820
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:31am Sep 29, 2011 11:31am
Quoting Alorente
Donīt feel bad. Change to the daily chart and youīll see the explosive nature of this moment. Donīt worry about the pennies. Concentrate on the dollars. The daily chart shows the first meaningful resistance at 77.30. When it gets there Iīll be watching like a hawk how it behaves.
i deleted the rebelling comment because now i am in the money again. Ok, will ride up to 77.30. not selling anymore (but it was nice to squeeze out some cash a second time again).



we all climb the Great Wall of Worry together!!

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