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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #141
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:12am Sep 29, 2011 1:12am
updated chart
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/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #142
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:19am Sep 29, 2011 1:19am
You said yesterday that you thought about taking a short on the piercing of the trendline around 1.369

Quoting PipTrapper
Which trend line are you referring to?
  • #143
  • Edited 2:58am Sep 29, 2011 1:20am | Edited 2:58am
Hope my sell limits at .369, .370 and .371 were a good decision . Too bad I cannot change them from my work (proxy does not allow MT to get through ). So all I have is hope that in next 8 hours the get touched and the Euro will cease to grow after that
  • #144
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:25am Sep 29, 2011 1:25am
Quoting TheSwede
You said yesterday that you thought about taking a short on the piercing of the trendline around 1.369
Ahh yes. That was the falling channel resistance. But that is lower today and it has been breached around the .3663 area
Now we have to see if H4 closes above or below.

ADD: H1 chart showing channel resistance breach/pierce
.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #145
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:28am Sep 29, 2011 1:28am
Ok, forgive me for a stupid question but what is a falling channel resistance. No trendine?

Quoting PipTrapper
Ahh yes. That was the falling channel resistance. But that is lower today and it has been breached around the .3663 area
Now we have to see if H4 closes above or below.
  • #146
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:28am Sep 29, 2011 1:28am
if anybody understands german, this is the livestream of the discussion on EFSF, Schaeuble now on air

http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/beitr...g-im-Bundestag
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #147
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:30am Sep 29, 2011 1:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay we are in the zone now. Will be shorting on PA confirmation.
Hi !
Thanks for interesting analysis. This is what my chart tells me.
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  • #148
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:31am Sep 29, 2011 1:31am
Quoting TheSwede
Ok, forgive me for a stupid question but what is a falling channel resistance. No trendine?
Yes it is the same thing. 2 parallel trendlines. One at the top of the trend (channel resistance) and one at the bottom (channel support)

and I was referring to the bearish channel as seen in the solid falling blue line on the chart.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #149
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:31am Sep 29, 2011 1:31am
Quoting walb99
if anybody understands german, this is the livestream of the discussion on EFSF, Schaeuble now on air

http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/beitr...g-im-Bundestag
Thanks Walb99 but I don't speak the language.
.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #150
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:43am Sep 29, 2011 1:43am
Shooting star on M30. Waiting for confirmation on H1 at top of the hour.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #151
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:49am Sep 29, 2011 1:49am
I entered short at .3675 as chart speaks to me. Entry point determined at 5-min based on 1H chart. Hope she holds up, with the plus pips this month this will either add on or be 1st loss of month. I got out too early yesterday.
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  • #152
  • Edited 2:30am Sep 29, 2011 1:52am | Edited 2:30am
Sup peepz,

The last EU hour bar printed very high volume, compareable to the yesterday's high volume bar around this price. BUT notice that the current last hour bar did not make a new high! This is a sign of weakness approaching. Since I am done for the month, and protecting my profits, I did not take a trade, but thought to contribute. I took a trade call almost an hour ago at 1.3678 and posted the link where i called it. I would set the stop 150pips above yesterday's high, for a swing low profit taking.
Chart:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post4997733

Chart below: I drew two new circles showing the failed attempt to make a new high, and a new line on the bottom showing the same amount of high volume
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #153
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:54am Sep 29, 2011 1:54am
Hmmm. Not closed yet... wouldn't mind a close below1.3645. But Not sure that you can expect anything before the german vote.

I'm out today and tomorrow (never trade fridays).

Quoting PipTrapper
Shooting star on M30. Waiting for confirmation on H1 at top of the hour.
  • #154
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:56am Sep 29, 2011 1:56am
Quoting PipPipPip
Sup peepz,

The last EU hour bar printed very high volume, compareable to the yesterday's high volume bar around this price. BUT notice that the current last hour bar did not make a new high! This is a sign of weakness approaching. Since I am done for the month, and protecting my profits, I did not take a trade, but thought to contribute. I took a trade call almost an hour ago at 1.3678. I would set the stop 1500pips above yesterday's high, for a swing low profit taking.
Chart:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post4997733...
Nice entry PipPipPip.
I am looking for confirmation on H1 before entering. That style gets me in a bit later but with a better chance of downward momentum.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #155
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:00am Sep 29, 2011 2:00am
Quoting TheSwede
Hmmm. Not closed yet... wouldn't mind a close below1.3645. But Not sure that you can expect anything before the german vote.

I'm out today and tomorrow (never trade fridays).
If I was just trading intraday, I wouldn't trade Mondays or Friday either.
Difference for me is that I am position building. I am already a few hundred pips in the money so if this downtrend continues without any more significant up move, the gains will be exponential. If not, I still get out in positive territory.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #156
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:36am Sep 29, 2011 2:36am
Probably will look into position trading more. Adding it to my list. But not until I get a firm grasp on intraday.

Fridays are just not good to trade intraday signals are not as reliable as it is on the other days, and its good to get a day off reviewing the week and updating you charts.

Now we are down hope you got your entry...

Quoting PipTrapper
If I was just trading intraday, I wouldn't trade Mondays or Friday either.
Difference for me is that I am position building. I am already a few hundred pips in the money so if this downtrend continues without any more significant up move, the gains will be exponential. If not, I still get out in positive territory.
  • #157
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:38am Sep 29, 2011 2:38am
Quoting TheSwede
Probably will look into position trading more. Adding it to my list. But not until I get a firm grasp on intraday.

Fridays are just not good to trade intraday signals are not as reliable as it is on the other days, and its good to get a day off reviewing the week and updating you charts.

Now we are down hope you got your entry...
Yes I got my entry at 1.3642
A little late I know but in the greater scheme of things, 40 pips is nothing.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #158
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:41am Sep 29, 2011 2:41am
I also like confirmation. How do you handle SL on this position?

Quoting PipTrapper
Yes I got my entry at 1.3642
A little late I know but in the greater scheme of things, 40 pips is nothing.
  • #159
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:43am Sep 29, 2011 2:43am
Quoting TheSwede
I also like confirmation. How do you handle SL on this position?
My SL right now is just above 1.3940
I like to be nimble.
Things are dynamic in this market so if I am rigid, I will get taken out.
Slightly higher risk profile but you cannot have significant gains without significant risk.

Perhaps in calmer markets, I will day trade, but right now position trading works best for me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #160
  • Sep 29, 2011 3:23am Sep 29, 2011 3:23am
USD is gaining ground after the passing of the EFSF vote in Germany.

The EUR tried to penetrate deep into the sell zone but was met with aggressive rejection twice in the last three hours.

Is this a case of buy the rumor / Sell the news?

We shall see once NY starts trading.

Keep in mind that we have US unemployment claims and Final q/q GDP reports at 8:30am EST
Later at 10am EST we have US Pending Home Sales.

I opened a short at 1.3642 and I'm holding it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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