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  • #601
  • Sep 21, 2011 3:20pm Sep 21, 2011 3:20pm
There was a couple of other nice technical setups on UCAD and ENZD today too, but only other trade for me was a more discretionary trade based on technicals and fundamentals on UJ.
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  • #602
  • Sep 22, 2011 1:34am Sep 22, 2011 1:34am
Quoting lovejoy80
Main setup I'm watching at the moment.
Price getting close again...
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  • #603
  • Sep 22, 2011 5:04am Sep 22, 2011 5:04am
Quoting lovejoy80
Price getting close again...
When AU broke support and GU bounced of support this was a sign to cut the trade for a small loss. Part of being a good trader is being able to analyse new information about your trade from relevant sources and act on it in a logical manner (i.e. without emotions).
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  • #604
  • Sep 27, 2011 4:46am Sep 27, 2011 4:46am
Couple of setups on the watchlist...

Also closely looking at Gold, Silver, Oil, S&P.
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  • #605
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:35am Sep 27, 2011 9:35am
Quoting lovejoy80
Couple of setups on the watchlist...

Also closely looking at Gold, Silver, Oil, S&P.
Silver resulted in a nice quick win. Entry @ 33.50, SL @ 33.80, Exit @ 33.12 +1.27R
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  • #606
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:44am Sep 27, 2011 9:44am
As was EU.

FTB with TL and RN confluence...plus we have information from EP and USDX which provides further confluence.
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  • #607
  • Sep 27, 2011 12:20pm Sep 27, 2011 12:20pm
i see the reversal..
js watching...if price reach 61.8 Fib(77.00)

good for short eh?
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  • #608
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:31pm Sep 27, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
i see the reversal..
js watching...if price reach 61.8 Fib(77.00)

good for short eh?
Looks good to me as does AJ @ 78.

If CJ decided to come down from here then a return to the intra-day congestion could be a good setup - as long as the market is moving in an orderly fashion of course - watch the risk aversion!
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  • #609
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:42pm Sep 27, 2011 5:42pm
Hi LJ,

Thanks for this wonderful thread. I have noticed something interesting and wanted to share it here. Attached charts are Weekly S&P 500 comparison of 2008 (before and after recession) and current charts. Both chart patterns looks pretty similar and if it continues that way in next few weeks, we are in for a real down ride. Failure of retest of 1250 will confirm the next down move.

What's your expert opinion on this.

Thanks

Alifari
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #610
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:54pm Sep 27, 2011 5:54pm
Quoting alifari
Hi LJ,

Thanks for this wonderful thread. I have noticed something interesting and wanted to share it here. Attached charts are Weekly S&P 500 comparison of 2008 (before and after recession) and current charts. Both chart patterns looks pretty similar and if it continues that way in next few weeks, we are in for a real down ride. Failure of retest of 1250 will confirm the next down move.

What's your expert opinion on this.

Thanks

Alifari
1250 is definitely a key area for the S&P futures and it's a setup I'll be watching closely if price gets there.

I'm not sure I would be comparing it too much with 2008. I mean it's a retracement to the broken neckline of a H&S pattern like it was i 2008 but just because these setups are similar doesn't in my view necessarily mean that price will tumble like it did in 2008. I just don't think one pattern like that can be used to reliably predict that the same will happen now.

There is of course at huge amount of uncertainty in the market due to both the Eurozone issues + the contagion affect this has on the global banking system and the global economy and the fear of of another global recession.

So there is certainly fundamental factors that could cause a sustained bearish move, but technically I would not myself be looking at that chart in 2008 and think this is a high probability pattern that will repeat itself - the reaction at 1250 is potentially a high probability pattern because this is a well known pattern that repeats itself over and over again. But I couldn't convince myself that just because it fell like it did in 2008 that it means with high probability that it will fall the same way again - I would most likely manage it in the same way I the majority of my touch trades.
  • #611
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:09pm Sep 27, 2011 6:09pm
1st page updated with details of how to follow some of my trades.
  • #612
  • Sep 28, 2011 2:43am Sep 28, 2011 2:43am
Quoting lovejoy80
Looks good to me as does AJ @ 78.

If CJ decided to come down from here then a return to the intra-day congestion could be a good setup - as long as the market is moving in an orderly fashion of course - watch the risk aversion!
A simple intra-day confluenced touch trade...straight to first trouble area.

By itself it's a good setup...but what if you go further than that and look at what other correlated FX pairs are doing and go further still and look at what inter-market correlated assets are doing ...
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  • #613
  • Sep 28, 2011 2:45am Sep 28, 2011 2:45am
Quoting lovejoy80
A simple intra-day confluenced touch trade...straight to first trouble area.

By itself it's a good setup...but what if you go further than that and look at what other correlated FX pairs are doing and go further still and look at what inter-market correlated assets are doing ...
...First start with by looking at the location of other Yen majors, here's a couple.
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  • #614
  • Sep 28, 2011 2:49am Sep 28, 2011 2:49am
Quoting lovejoy80
...First start with by looking at the location of other Yen majors, here's a couple.
So we have FTB setups...good setups in their own right, but the fact that the Yen majors all have similar setups is correlated confluence.

But, we can go further than that...

We also know that USD and JPY pairs tend to move together when the main market driver is risk sentiment ... if you've been awake for the last couple of weeks you should be able to realise that this is exactly what is driving the market...and when this happen the market becomes very predictable (i.e. what rises and falls together in times of risk appetite and risk aversion).

A couple of the USD pairs...
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  • #615
  • Sep 28, 2011 2:52am Sep 28, 2011 2:52am
Quoting lovejoy80
So we have FTB setups...good setups in their own right, but the fact that the Yen majors all have similar setups is correlated confluence.

But, we can go further than that...

We also know that USD and JPY pairs tend to move together when the main market driver is risk sentiment ... if you've been awake for the last couple of weeks you should be able to realise that this is exactly what is driving the market...and when this happen the market becomes very predictable (i.e. what rises and falls together in times of risk appetite and risk...
Hmmm they are both at support - decent FTB setups again.

So what about the inter-market relationships...
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  • #616
  • Edited 8:54am Sep 28, 2011 3:03am | Edited 8:54am
Quoting lovejoy80
Hmmm they are both at support - decent FTB setups again.

So what about the inter-market relationships...
So...equities at good support, with USDX at FTB resistance and EURX at a good congestion support area.

Lastly, throw in USDCHF and you've got the final piece of the picture.

Digest all this information and you've got an extremely high probability set of trades - a no brainer array of intra-day setups.

Of course the entries is only one part trading, the more important part is how you manage your exits, but that's for another day ... (but let me just say this - take 100% of your position off at the first identified s/r area every time is lazy trading for people with mindset issues - you'll never grow an account significantly if you manage trades like this - I know because I've been there and done it!). But if you've put yourself in a position to take high probability trades like this then you have an edge already ... if you make an edge from your trade management plan then you've cracked it.
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  • #617
  • Sep 28, 2011 4:59pm Sep 28, 2011 4:59pm
Thanks LJ for your detailed reply. I have learn't a lot from you. Keep up the good work.
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #618
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:30am Sep 29, 2011 1:30am
Quoting lovejoy80
A simple intra-day confluenced touch trade...straight to first trouble area.

By itself it's a good setup...but what if you go further than that and look at what other correlated FX pairs are doing and go further still and look at what inter-market correlated assets are doing ...
Another example ... (looks like I might need to amend my trading hours - yesterday's moves were prior to the start of my trading day and last night's were after! )

... look at how Yen and USD pairs hit S/R areas together (most prominent on the Yen pairs).

Now go and take a look yourselves at EURX, USDX and EP at the same time.

Knowledge about correlated pairs, assets can tell you a very powerful story as to what to expect next - they can produce some of the highest probability trading setups.

But, as with everything in trading nothing is 100% - however - when the market is being driven by risk sentiment the correlations are typically very strong.
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  • #619
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:31am Sep 29, 2011 1:31am
.
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  • #620
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:36am Sep 29, 2011 1:36am
So you can see how a good touch trade in it's own right can become a 'no-brainer' trade - all it takes it to look at the bigger market picture - you never know what additional confluence you might find!
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