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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,421
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:10pm Sep 20, 2011 5:10pm
Quoting Faller
More food for thought......the yen is weighted at 13.60% against the USD. During his consolidation period from August 10, 2011 till today the yen has moved in a tight range of 100 pips ish........while the USDX (dollar index) has moved from its lows of 73.91 all the way up to 78.30. So you do the math....if the yen is weighted 13.60% against the moves of the US dollar and the yen has not moved at all during this very big move up on the US dollar......you have to ask yourself........is the spring just coiling tighter and tighter......why...
yes right, it's its safe-haven character doing this (accelerated by the removal of the CHF in that respect).
Considered safe havens now USD and Yen and more and more people thinking, he is USD so safe, driving them more to the last one the YEN causing the development you describe.
As a mater of fact the Yen is not as safe as most think, so a turn will come and see your 80.50 level as a level achievable very fast if safe-haven search becomes less relevant
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,422
  • Sep 20, 2011 7:54pm Sep 20, 2011 7:54pm
Quoting Faller
At these levels we still need a tight stop loss because if it starts to run it will run big time because where is the support? Other then intervention.......Look at swissy when it was at all time lows of 81......it dropped to 70 before things turned around......so be careful......I know I am.....this is not a fools game. Keep it tight.

Closed earlier position at daily roll.....was happy for the nice spike down and with no open positions was able to have a good dinner with the family and then a nice family walk to the park......got back an hour ago to see this nice move........like I said be careful.....use tight stops because it is tough picking bottoms. Looks like this one will run for a while......they may just be waiting for big Ben to announce his announcement that he is going to announce QE3
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,423
  • Sep 20, 2011 7:59pm Sep 20, 2011 7:59pm
Usd/Jpy Buy at 76.20/25 then 76.05/10 then 75.85/90, sell at 76.75/80 then 76.90/95 then 77.05/10

Usd/Jpy This pair is on daily downtrend, retracement at 76.55/60, break is to 76.85/95, above would change trend direction, while low price level is at 76.15/20, below is to extend weakness to the above buy signals
  • #27,424
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:10pm Sep 20, 2011 8:10pm
like I said....this could run a bit......wow.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,425
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:14pm Sep 20, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
Usd/Jpy Buy at 76.20/25 then 76.05/10 then 75.85/90, sell at 76.75/80 then 76.90/95 then 77.05/10

Usd/Jpy This pair is on daily downtrend, retracement at 76.55/60, break is to 76.85/95, above would change trend direction, while low price level is at 76.15/20, below is to extend weakness to the above buy signals

what does this mean??
Inserted Video
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,426
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:17pm Sep 20, 2011 8:17pm
Quoting Faller
like I said....this could run a bit......wow.
This doesnt come as a surprise. Economic Numbers remain bad.
Thinking that bof mof weak reaction is main cause for strenghtening
Jpy. Words no longer impress.
  • #27,427
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:20pm Sep 20, 2011 8:20pm
wow both buy & sell done well.
  • #27,428
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:20pm Sep 20, 2011 8:20pm
iz a nice move.....
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,429
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:26pm Sep 20, 2011 8:26pm
BOJ checking rates ?????
  • #27,430
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:26pm Sep 20, 2011 8:26pm
This is around the same time of night of their last intervention.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,431
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:28pm Sep 20, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting lasty
BOJ checking rates ?????

keep laughing.......and watch your account go boom!
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,432
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:33pm Sep 20, 2011 8:33pm
The drop to 76.09 or thereabouts straight after the Asian open was bound to get the attention of BOJ.......whether this bounce has anything to do with them is hard to say........their efforts are usually several hundred pips, not 50 or 60.

Time will tell
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,433
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:33pm Sep 20, 2011 8:33pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
Usd/Jpy Buy at 76.20/25 then 76.05/10 then 75.85/90, sell at 76.75/80 then 76.90/95 then 77.05/10

Usd/Jpy This pair is on daily downtrend, retracement at 76.55/60, break is to 76.85/95, above would change trend direction, while low price level is at 76.15/20, below is to extend weakness to the above buy signals

how did that work out for you?
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,434
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:36pm Sep 20, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting realjumper
The drop to 76.09 or thereabouts straight after the Asian open was bound to get the attention of BOJ.......whether this bounce has anything to do with them is hard to say........their efforts are usually several hundred pips, not 50 or 60.

Time will tell
Could just be the start.....last time they set there sell orders through many price levels that continued all the way into the London open.......like you said time will tell......to me this looks like a little intervention happening.....the spikes are not recovering very well......so something is up.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,435
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:53pm Sep 20, 2011 8:53pm
Quoting Faller
Could just be the start.....last time they set there sell orders through many price levels that continued all the way into the London open.......like you said time will tell......to me this looks like a little intervention happening.....the spikes are not recovering very well......so something is up.
This is no intervention, just à technical bounce off 76.
  • #27,436
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:59pm Sep 20, 2011 8:59pm
Quoting SIgurs
This is no intervention, just à technical bounce off 76.
75 is like à magnet knowing that bof and mof statements
are nothing nut cheap talk
  • #27,437
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:59pm Sep 20, 2011 8:59pm
That may have been a big exit for somebody.
  • #27,438
  • Sep 20, 2011 9:02pm Sep 20, 2011 9:02pm
The last hour candle had a range of 52 pips with a net change of 1 pip.
  • #27,439
  • Sep 20, 2011 9:06pm Sep 20, 2011 9:06pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
That may have been a big exit for somebody.

my point exactly......something is up.......someone knows something......that move was not just a technical bounce from 76.......it did not even hit 76............like I said something is up.

I do like the hour chart at this time.....will see how things react in the 45 mins.......
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,440
  • Sep 20, 2011 9:13pm Sep 20, 2011 9:13pm
maybe the yen based silver futures traders at ubs are just making sure they have their hedges set
I fought the SNB and the SNB won.
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