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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,381
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:44am Sep 20, 2011 2:44am
Quoting FXMindset
what is the last three times am intervented ?
The appreciation of the Japanese yen prompted the Central Bank of Japan to intervene in its currency markets on 4 August 2011, selling an estimated JPY 4.5 trillion in the third major intervention in the currency markets since September 2010 and the second since the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011.

September 2010: unilateral monetary easing
March 2011: G7 monetary intervention
August 2011: Japanese intervenes in domestic currency market

Despite these interventions Jpy is stronger then ever. So one might begin to wonder how effective these measures are at the end of the day.
  • #27,382
  • Edited 3:38am Sep 20, 2011 3:03am | Edited 3:38am
As someone said earlier on here, the Japanese tend to be more patient than most other cultures. Especially within the fast paced investment world. Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression of Japanese people is that they also don't like to interfere with the natural order of things. It is to my understanding that they believe that things will work itself out on its own without having to force the issue. I suppose that doesn't explain all the threats of intervention, but maybe it explains part of the reason why they're hesitant to intervene.

That and they probably don't want to piss off other countries, lol.
  • #27,383
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:04am Sep 20, 2011 3:04am
As I was typing that last comment, it seems we are getting strong movement in yen selling and euro buying. Correction? Or the start of a new trend??
  • #27,384
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:13am Sep 20, 2011 3:13am
Quoting FXMindset
am always believe whatever the JPY cross sell or buy will always brings affect to UJ pairs,,and here the EJ Monthly,due the europe situation now and break the monthly trend,am expected to see 92-93 level at EJ which probably will giving a lot sells pressure for UJ also,Call me Insane
I would not call you insane. I feel that there is every possibility that EUR/JPY will continue to head south. We are now at the lows last seen more than a decade ago and there is very little obvious support until at least the big figure of 100 and the next stop is the 90's. With the Euro weakness, I think we will be seeing Dollar strength and maybe this pair will move into the 80's. Certainly the strong Yen is killing the Japanesse economy and a pegging to the Dollar in the way done with the Swiss with the Euro must be a possibility.
  • #27,385
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:25am Sep 20, 2011 3:25am
the japanese are soooooooo patient. maybe i can learn something from them? :-))
  • #27,386
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:41am Sep 20, 2011 3:41am
Quoting freiburg
the japanese are soooooooo patient. maybe i can learn something from them? :-))
I want to meet a Japanese girl and have her teach me "patience".

http://www.firfilika.com/tasarim/gal...sian_girls.jpg

http://phillips.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83...a6fd970b-320wi
  • #27,387
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:55am Sep 20, 2011 3:55am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I want to meet a Japanese girl and have her teach me "patience".

http://www.firfilika.com/tasarim/gal...sian_girls.jpg

http://phillips.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83...a6fd970b-320wi
  • #27,388
  • Sep 20, 2011 4:02am Sep 20, 2011 4:02am
Quoting Wulfgar
What's up The Dude! LOL. Hope all is well man. Good luck.
  • #27,389
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:29am Sep 20, 2011 5:29am
japanese economy isnt worse. there will be no intervene above 75.90. any way , longing UJ do not have much risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 23 KB
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #27,390
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:31am Sep 20, 2011 5:31am
Quoting ChristopherM
I would not call you insane. I feel that there is every possibility that EUR/JPY will continue to head south. We are now at the lows last seen more than a decade ago and there is very little obvious support until at least the big figure of 100 and the next stop is the 90's. With the Euro weakness, I think we will be seeing Dollar strength and maybe this pair will move into the 80's. Certainly the strong Yen is killing the Japanesse economy and a pegging to the Dollar in the way done with the Swiss with the Euro must be a possibility.
80? Maybe Next Month,Based On Monthly Chart this month 92-93 Possible and UJ Lowest at 74,xx
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,391
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:40am Sep 20, 2011 5:40am
I'm long cus I'm a ruthless bastard!
Stop -23 TP +94.
Never closed below the green line, good R:R.

USD/JPY H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ1.png Size: 230 KB
  • #27,392
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:00am Sep 20, 2011 6:00am
Quoting fosking
I'm long cus I'm a ruthless bastard!
Stop -23 TP +94.
Never closed below the green line, good R:R.

USD/JPY H4
Attachment
May the force be with you sir
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,393
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:06am Sep 20, 2011 6:06am
Quoting realjumper
May the force be with you sir
Thanks. It's my first gamble on UJ for a while so I expect to be stopped lol, always happens when I've not traded it for a while.

How's trading going your end? What game are you going to see at the World Cup?
  • #27,394
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:14am Sep 20, 2011 6:14am
Quoting fosking
Thanks. It's my first gamble on UJ for a while so I expect to be stopped lol, always happens when I've not traded it for a while.

How's trading going your end? What game are you going to see at the World Cup?
It's worth a punt fosking....you never know your luck with this pair.

Trading has been quite good thanks.....a bit slack today, but generally speaking it's all good thanks.....and you?.....hows your trading going?

I won't be seeing too many of the RWC games.....Argentina (Pumas) will be playing in my town so I'll go that game, but the other games I can see will be in Wellington (about 2 hours from here) but those games will be quarter finals games so I don't know who will be playing.

But I support the All Blacks.....and any team playing Australia!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,395
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:24am Sep 20, 2011 6:24am
Quoting realjumper
It's worth a punt fosking....you never know your luck with this pair.

Trading has been quite good thanks.....a bit slack today, but generally speaking it's all good thanks.....and you?.....hows your trading going?

I won't be seeing too many of the RWC games.....Argentina (Pumas) will be playing in my town so I'll go that game, but the other games I can see will be in Wellington (about 2 hours from here) but those games will be quarter finals games so I don't know who will be playing.

But I support the All Blacks.....and any team playing Australia!...
My tradings going good aswell thanks.

The French game should be a good one to watch. We have Romania next so it shouldn't be too much of a problem, but you never know with our lot!
  • #27,396
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:30am Sep 20, 2011 6:30am
Quoting fosking
My tradings going good aswell thanks.

The French game should be a good one to watch. We have Romania next so it shouldn't be too much of a problem, but you never know with our lot!
Glad your trading is going well

France is a good team......the All Blacks got kicked out of the World Cup by France before, so they cannot be underestimated. Not sure about Johnny Wilkinson in the England team......hmmm.....very inspiring player so anything is possible!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,397
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:36am Sep 20, 2011 6:36am
Quoting realjumper
Glad your trading is going well

France is a good team......the All Blacks got kicked out of the World Cup by France before, so they cannot be underestimated. Not sure about Johnny Wilkinson in the England team......hmmm.....very inspiring player so anything is possible!!
Yeah Wilkinson has got to get his form back if we are to seriously compete. I think once the pressure starts to mount he'll find it.
It was nice to see Ireland beat Australia though!
  • #27,398
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:49am Sep 20, 2011 6:49am
Quoting fosking
Yeah Wilkinson has got to get his form back if we are to seriously compete. I think once the pressure starts to mount he'll find it.
It was nice to see Ireland beat Australia though!
LOL.....oh yes.....it certainly was good!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,399
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:29am Sep 20, 2011 8:29am
Quoting fosking
I'm long cus I'm a ruthless bastard!
Stop -23 TP +94.
Never closed below the green line, good R:R.

USD/JPY H4
Attachment
good luck fosking, learn them a lesson!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,400
  • Sep 20, 2011 9:00am Sep 20, 2011 9:00am
Quoting freiburg
I know the Swiss German mentality is probably more action oriented, and the Asians have endless patience. But these endless hints will be taken as non-serious if they don't do something, and so they probably will do something. Maybe tonight ?
It not a matter of 'will be taken" non-serious, these hints "are" not taken seriously. Todays action is, again, a sign that markets don't expect intervention anytime soon.

Mind you, if the FED's move later this week is ill received things could get much uglier. Imo, the Jpy will remain strong or even become stronger if Japanese authorities keep on expressing their concerns without strong intervention.

Hard to put a TG on that, but 70 to 73 doesn't seem impossible. Just my 2c.
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