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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,361
  • Edited 11:33pm Sep 19, 2011 9:39pm | Edited 11:33pm
I'm hesitant to go long right now because Japan may need that 75 level in order to move the market north. Fighting the tide might not be worth the cost right now. However, if price comes down, then they can buy the longs that all the corpses are relinquishing for cheaper and in greater bulk. Just then the tide might be on their side.
  • #27,362
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:54pm Sep 19, 2011 9:54pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I'm hesitant to go long right now because Japan may need that 75 level in order to move the market north. Fighting the tide might not be worth the cost right now. However, if price comes down, then they can buy the longs that all the corpses are relinquishing for cheaper and in greater bulk. Just then the tide might be on their side.
Best to stay away from this pair I think......Azumi is making noises about bleating to the G20 in 3 weeks time (forexlive.com) which seems to be saying that there will be no intervention until at least then.......maybe!!!

Who knows?........BOJ and Azumi/Noda et al are looking just as incompetent as ever........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,363
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:12pm Sep 19, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting realjumper
Best to stay away from this pair I think......Azumi is making noises about bleating to the G20 in 3 weeks time (forexlive.com) which seems to be saying that there will be no intervention until at least then.......maybe!!!

Who knows?........BOJ and Azumi/Noda et al are looking just as incompetent as ever........
Or maybe Azumi/Noda will intervene before the G20 and show up to the meetings dressed like this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: carboard_box_robot_costume.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #27,364
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:20pm Sep 19, 2011 10:20pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Or maybe Azumi/Noda will intervene before the G20 and show up to the meetings dressed like this...
If they intervene before the G20, and the results are anything like their last attempt, they'll show up looking like this.....
Attached Image
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,365
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:27pm Sep 19, 2011 10:27pm
Quoting realjumper
If they intervene before the G20, and the results are anything like their last attempt, they'll show up looking like this.....
yummy
  • #27,366
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:42pm Sep 19, 2011 10:42pm
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_wvoLtwni0k...esting-cat.jpg
  • #27,367
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:49pm Sep 19, 2011 10:49pm
Yen Strong across the Board in all crosses... I expect some sort of intervention in the next 2-3 days if things don't improve on their plate... They want to surprise the market..
  • #27,368
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:47pm Sep 19, 2011 11:47pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
Usd/Jpy Buy at 76.15/20 then 75.95/00 then 75.60/65, sell at 77.05/10 then 77.25/30 then 77.55/60

Usd/Jpy This pair is on daily downtrend, had hit yesterday low at 76.30/35(Good buy) after a successful breakout strategy started from yesterday support at 76.85, today retracement at 76.70, break is to good resistance at 76.95/00, above here is toward the above sell signals, while low price level is at 76.25/30, below would extend weakness to the above buy signals
Stoploss?and Do you responsible for your signals recommendation?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,369
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:16am Sep 20, 2011 1:16am
I look @ my charts and it points to 74.50....a new historical low....
  • #27,370
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:25am Sep 20, 2011 1:25am
Monthly Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Monthly.png Size: 44 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,371
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:29am Sep 20, 2011 1:29am
Quoting Demon Bane
I look @ my charts and it points to 74.50....a new historical low....
filet mignon, lobster and champagne awaits.

I concur.
  • #27,372
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:31am Sep 20, 2011 1:31am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
filet mignon, lobster and champagne awaits.

I concur.
Hmmm......I'll have the humble pie and a glass of water then please
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,373
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:36am Sep 20, 2011 1:36am
Quoting hantousha
Yen Strong across the Board in all crosses... I expect some sort of intervention in the next 2-3 days if things don't improve on their plate... They want to surprise the market..
How can intervention be a surprise when all authorities have been doing is shouting from the sidelines, warning that they will act ? Markets are calling their bluff by pulling the pairs towards all time lows, no nervous behaviour around those levels, just a calm, confident and steady drop. Apparently markets do not fear intervention, perhaps they have become used to the Japanese rethorics, perhaps they don't expect the Japanese to take the same drastic measures as their Swiss counterparts did.

Imo, we may conclude that this indecision is taking its toll on the Jpy. Chances are that Usd/Jpy will no longer be able to hold the 76.30-76.50 support area.

Credibility is the name of the game. Seems like the Japanese are losing bits and pieces every day.

==========
Just read the article below. This kind of action will, imo, not stop the Jpy from rising.

Japan annouces policy package to rein in yen's rise




English.news.cn 2011-09-20 11:58:43TOKYO, Sept. 20 (Xinhua) -- The Japanese government announced Tuesday a policy package featuring financial assistance to keep businesses domestically to tackle the recent sharp rise of the yen.
The previous measures taken by the Japanese government had failed to ease the strengthening currency in an effective way. Under the fresh package, the government planned to increase subsidies for companies to launch new facilities in Japan and encourage firms to develop overseas energy resources.
The measures came at a time when domestic manufacturers might accelerate the shift of production abroad amid a rising yen.
The yen briefly hit a postwar high against the U.S. dollar in August. The rising trend has negatively impacted the global competitiveness of Japanese exporters and eroded their earnings.
The package will be financed by a planned third extra budget for fiscal 2011.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english201..._131149117.htm
  • #27,374
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:46am Sep 20, 2011 1:46am
Quoting Alorente
Here is the chart this morning. The bottom wall of the channel was respected nicely. So is the RSI trendline. The Trix is still rising, green and nicely open (The distance between both lines is steady, not closing). The only thing that bothers me a bit is that the coral has turned red, but it is still above the 200SMA so I´ll give it the benefit of the doubt. The picture as a whole is still consistent with a move to the top of the channel at 78. I´m still holding my long position.
Could you please post another chart ?
  • #27,375
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:46am Sep 20, 2011 1:46am
Quoting SIgurs
Just read the article below. This kind of action will, imo, not stop the Jpy from rising.
I agree.....that 'package' seems to geared more towards helping people in Japan deal with a strong Yen, rather than lowering the Yen.

The Swiss deal was different in that their main problem was with the weak Euro......Japans main problem is the weak greenback. If they were to engage in a SNB type intervention, USA would be very pissed off (I imagine), because Uncle Sam doesn't want a stronger dollar, and that would be the 'side effect' of Japans intervention.

Japan is in a difficult position......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,376
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:02am Sep 20, 2011 2:02am
am always believe whatever the JPY cross sell or buy will always brings affect to UJ pairs,,and here the EJ Monthly,due the europe situation now and break the monthly trend,am expected to see 92-93 level at EJ which probably will giving a lot sells pressure for UJ also,Call me Insane
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Monthly.png Size: 40 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,377
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:10am Sep 20, 2011 2:10am
Later this week the FED will probably reveal its plan to revive the US economy. Would not surprise me to see that some QE3 will be part of it.

Does anyone have an idea what that might do for the Usd/Jpy ?
  • #27,378
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:15am Sep 20, 2011 2:15am
Quoting FXMindset
am always believe whatever the JPY cross sell or buy will always brings affect to UJ pairs,,and here the EJ Monthly,due the europe situation now and break the monthly trend,am expected to see 92-93 level at EJ which probably will giving a lot sells pressure for UJ also,Call me Insane
beautiful chart my friend named Ben.
  • #27,379
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:20am Sep 20, 2011 2:20am
Quoting SIgurs
Later this week the FED will probably reveal its plan to revive the US economy. Would not surprise me to see that some QE3 will be part of it.

Does anyone have an idea what that might do for the Usd/Jpy ?
One would think it would weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen.

HOWEVER!...

What if this strengthening we are seeing this week is pricing this in. Then when news comes out it could be no effect or maybe even yen selloff.

BUT!...

It may very well depend on how much QEing is done. I hope my response helps although it doesn't, lol.
  • #27,380
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:22am Sep 20, 2011 2:22am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
beautiful chart my friend named Ben.
Ben Here..
and I am will tell the world that NO QE3 will be announce later as I said before we will have a lot measure Tools to recover our economic until before "Election"

USD Will be bought as Eur & CHF Sell

And Japanese goverment need to intervence a little bit more to combine with the USD Strenght temporarly for going upside

Oh Yes,Our Intervention before wont take any fast effect as everything needs process and our accumulation of intervention will brings effect at least 5-6 month..what is the last three times am intervented ?

Happy Trading all
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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