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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,161
  • Sep 14, 2011 8:42am Sep 14, 2011 8:42am
Quoting Alorente
Here is the current picture:

The RSI trendline (Bottom) is still holding. The Fast Trix and Slow Trix on the THV are green and the Fast is above the Slow which is very bullist. The 60 EMA is above the 200 SMA and still green and rising. The Euro still looks like sh-- and the S&P about the same. Those move opposite to the dollar recently. I could go on and on. According to my system which has given me a 93% long term rate of wins, it is not time to close the trade yet.

If you donīt believe in your system completely itīs better to try golf or bowling...
Is this a 4hr chart ?
  • #27,162
  • Sep 14, 2011 8:55am Sep 14, 2011 8:55am
Quoting Alorente
Here is the current picture:

The RSI trendline (Bottom) is still holding.

You gotta dance with who brung you ...

I don't doubt you but I'm wondering why my version of the RSI has broken the trend line?

Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy110914h4.gif Size: 27 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #27,163
  • Sep 14, 2011 10:04am Sep 14, 2011 10:04am
Quoting SIgurs
Is this a 4hr chart ?
Yes. H4.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,164
  • Sep 14, 2011 10:14am Sep 14, 2011 10:14am
Quoting smikester
I don't doubt you but I'm wondering why my version of the RSI has broken the trend line?

Chart:

Attachment
You donīt have the correct trendline. The one I reflect on my chart begins with the bottom on 7/14 4:00 and connects with the bottom of 7/27 8:00.

I still have almost two hours left on the current candle. If it closes at this level, the trendline will be broken. A lot can happen in that time.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,165
  • Sep 14, 2011 10:46am Sep 14, 2011 10:46am
Quoting Alorente
You donīt have the correct trendline. The one I reflect on my chart begins with the bottom on 7/14 4:00 and connects with the bottom of 7/27 8:00.

I still have almost two hours left on the current candle. If it closes at this level, the trendline will be broken. A lot can happen in that time.
It's going to be a very close call. See other Jpy related pairs recovering from lows of day, but not the Usd/Jpy. Interesting to follow.
  • #27,166
  • Sep 14, 2011 12:46pm Sep 14, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting Alorente
You donīt have the correct trendline. The one I reflect on my chart begins with the bottom on 7/14 4:00 and connects with the bottom of 7/27 8:00.

I still have almost two hours left on the current candle. If it closes at this level, the trendline will be broken. A lot can happen in that time.
Looks like ema's crossing on 4hr chart. So you're probably out of your position. Next support in the low 76's.
  • #27,167
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:04pm Sep 14, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting SIgurs
Looks like ema's crossing on 4hr chart. So you're probably out of your position. Next support in the low 76's.
Iīm still in the trade. Attached is the chart right now. The Trix is still green with the fast trix over the slow trix on the THV. I found the correct channel for the Price Action. I can tell its the right one because the midline (dashes) shows clear support and resistance for the candles and also the candles are respecting both walls of the channel neatly.

So where are we. More of the same, even though my Coral (60EMA) is turning yellow which is a warning signal, and the RSI trendline is getting hit a bit but still within the current bar which still has to close. If we close this bar under 76.60 that should do it for the longs, but I still say we can turn around before that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 120 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,168
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:11pm Sep 14, 2011 1:11pm
Yeah,,I must admitted today moves damn slow...very very slow,this pairs reluctant to accept her love or turn it down,lets see
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,169
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:24pm Sep 14, 2011 1:24pm
Okay the long wasn't a good idea. Just got back to see was stopped out -15. Was hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Back to plan A: wait for rally, then sell!
  • #27,170
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:35pm Sep 14, 2011 1:35pm
Personally : I am Set Buy Stop @ 76.89 and Stoploss @ 76.54 apply 1 Hour before Asian Open
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,171
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:55pm Sep 14, 2011 1:55pm
Ok, whether it's wishful thinking or just instinct, this looks like an intervention waiting for a place to happen.
The lowest level touched was 75.93 after the Aug. 4th yentervention.
Prior to that event, it was hovering around the 76.65 area, which is where it is looks like it may reside for a bit now.
I've seen the yen and swissy during interventions which is why I'd like to build a nice ladder of longs up to 80.00 with tp that will hopefully trigger before sl does.

Any suggestions?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.gif Size: 56 KB
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #27,172
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:12pm Sep 14, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting jabbawest
Ok, whether it's wishful thinking or just instinct, this looks like an intervention waiting for a place to happen.
The lowest level touched was 75.93 after the Aug. 4th yentervention.
Prior to that event, it was hovering around the 76.65 area, which is where it is looks like it may reside for a bit now.
I've seen the yen and swissy during interventions which is why I'd like to build a nice ladder of longs up to 80.00 with tp that will hopefully trigger before sl does.

Any suggestions?
Iīm with you, guy. Not necessarily because of a possible intervention but simply because I see a change coming in the charts for the dollar in the short and medium term. You are probably right though that an intervention is near. If not now, when?

I donīt know about building a ladder. In a fast market during intervention it is risky to jump in. I rather build my position now, which is what I have been doing since 76.40. My position average cost is 76.58.

Anyway. Good luck.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,173
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:20pm Sep 14, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting Alorente
Iīm with you, guy. Not necessarily because of a possible intervention but simply because I see a change coming in the charts for the dollar in the short and medium term. You are probably right though that an intervention is near. If not now, when?

I donīt know about building a ladder. In a fast market during intervention it is risky to jump in. I rather build my position now, which is what I have been doing since 76.40. My position average cost is 76.58.

Anyway. Good luck.
Well,So you expected Intervention mate?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,174
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:25pm Sep 14, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting FXMindset
Well,So you expected Intervention mate?
I think they will probably do something. Mostly because of what has happened to the EURJPY in the past week. The European market is an important one for Japan. They will do something, but when and what form will it take? Who knows?
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,175
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:31pm Sep 14, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting Alorente
I think they will probably do something. Mostly because of what has happened to the EURJPY in the past week. The European market is an important one for Japan. They will do something, but when and what form will it take? Who knows?
Ok,For Information only,Daily Open and 4H before tokyo open @ 76.80 Match Well,so buy stop above that area may not a bad idea
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,176
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:37pm Sep 14, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting Alorente
I think they will probably do something. Mostly because of what has happened to the EURJPY in the past week. The European market is an important one for Japan. They will do something, but when and what form will it take? Who knows?
European market is the most important one for Japan. Eur/Jpy is well of lows and chart is looking quite good. So no need for intervention as far as Euro is concerned. Weakness can be found in Usd/Jpy, other pairs coming off lows.

Usd/Jpy is closest to its lows. Guess they will base need of intervention on Euro and not on Usd.
  • #27,177
  • Sep 14, 2011 3:11pm Sep 14, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting SIgurs
European market is the most important one for Japan. Eur/Jpy is well of lows and chart is looking quite good. So no need for intervention as far as Euro is concerned. Weakness can be found in Usd/Jpy, other pairs coming off lows.

Usd/Jpy is closest to its lows. Guess they will base need of intervention on Euro and not on Usd.
The Euro has only begun to fall. It should be under 1.20 by the end of the year. Iīm sure the Japanese government is wringing their hands about this. Not sure what they can do about it though. Probably nothing, but they have to show themselves to be trying at least. Itīs a race to the bottom with industrialized nationsīcurrencies and they canīt afford to be left behind.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,178
  • Sep 14, 2011 3:19pm Sep 14, 2011 3:19pm
Looks like USDX bull flag, trying a long again @ 76.63 giving stop a little room

Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,179
  • Sep 14, 2011 6:11pm Sep 14, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting Alorente
I think they will probably do something. Mostly because of what has happened to the EURJPY in the past week. The European market is an important one for Japan. They will do something, but when and what form will it take? Who knows?
I notice that BOJ and Azumi have been very quiet on the rhetoric front lately.......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,180
  • Sep 15, 2011 12:00am Sep 15, 2011 12:00am
Quoting realjumper
I notice that BOJ and Azumi have been very quiet on the rhetoric front lately.......
They Prepared something BIG due USD Starting Bullish now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 30 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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