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EUR/CHF

  • #1,241
  • Sep 9, 2011 10:17am Sep 9, 2011 10:17am
Yesterday evening i had some kind of intuition and adapted the Cablerun EA to trade EURCHF. It was running all night and day and makes about each 15-30 minutes a profitable trade. I am really impressed. Nomally I consider this EA as highly risky as it blindly sells or buys against the trend (each 17 pips) but the Idea with EURCHF was: We are near to 1.20 which means downside risk is limited. I only scalp long. I guess this should be a quite safe kind of trading right now? Any comments?

Quoting fx-season
qouted from Halkins : "“a small retracement” in CADCHF means a massive 5% profits if succeed."

i did like CHF pairs because of volatility indeed , escipially gbp/chf.

but after general CHF regulation , i can't be very sure about the volatility.

also , after eur-chf 1.20 fixation , chf pairs are correlated with eur in a sense ?
gbp/chf is looking like related with eur/usd ? and correlated with eur/gbp ?

regards.
  • #1,242
  • Sep 9, 2011 11:35am Sep 9, 2011 11:35am
Quoting rwenzlofsky
We are near to 1.20 which means downside risk is limited. I only scalp long. I guess this should be a quite safe kind of trading right now? Any comments?
I posted above about dangers for trading CHF …
My intuition says not to trust SNB and not to trust the common opinion that if price hits 1.2000 everything goes up automatically.
I don’t know why, but this is what I feel.
If something is too obvious, it means it may not work, hence I remember all investment bubbles bursts.




We can ask ourselves questions:

  1. What if price hits 1.2000 and SNB delays its intervention for 3, 4 days?
  2. Are you/me ready for this drawdown if they delay?
  3. We have to understand that SNB statement was published not to protect us (traders), but for Swiss exporters… and exporters don’t care about hourly price fluctuations and charts. They have their home bank spreads which are updated once, twice a day.
  4. What if majority of traders setup their trades on 1.2000 with stop loss let’s say on 1.19700 and price breaks through, hits the stop loss and triggers a massive chain reaction? Surely price bounces back afterwards to 1.2000, but you will be kicked out of the market...

Well, let the other test it, I'll stay aside.
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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #1,243
  • Sep 9, 2011 12:18pm Sep 9, 2011 12:18pm
All scalpers be v careful...

This is a fire, market might break 1.20 also

SNB intervention might not work, unless its co-ordinated...
  • #1,244
  • Sep 9, 2011 4:44pm Sep 9, 2011 4:44pm
Guys

The SNB can defend the 1.20 barrier for a long time to come.
Just remember when you go short you betting against the SNB, the one institution which can influence directly their own goods (currency) as they please in many ways, no ECB no Benny no G7 to ask for any permission.
I regard this as very low risk free ride, thank you very much P.Hildebrand.
Furthermore I would suggest to open a USD/CHF chart and that is the real reason why today the EUR/CHF has not dropped further.
So ask yourself if the EUR is doomed where does the money go, USD or CHF, if not sure study the recent movement on USD and maybe you will find the answer.
  • #1,245
  • Sep 10, 2011 9:10am Sep 10, 2011 9:10am
Guys, i think many of you just don't get SNB seriously.
They said "no strong franc" and there will be no strong franc!

This is a CAP not a PEG and it can go only one way...
You should also know this is not target, target is probably around 1,40 and do you know what will happen?

People will buy CHF cause they don't belive that this is CAP. Swiss will print CHF, a LOT of CHF, until people realise that CHF is not safe heaven any more! And suddenly we'll have a lot of new unwanted CHF in the game...oh yeah baby.

So, you go and buy more CHF if you want EURCHF at 2.00
  • #1,246
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:17pm Sep 11, 2011 12:17pm
Any of you super-duper world class traders know the exact time of the SNB to Euro peg breaking news, as reported by Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, etc.?

For anyone who has an exact time, I would appreciate naming the source of breaking news (name of feed).


Thanks
  • #1,247
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:44am Sep 12, 2011 9:44am
I think thre is a great opportunity for the pair to hit 1.25 during this week.

I am long @1.2060
  • #1,248
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:11am Sep 12, 2011 11:11am
Quoting Bernanke_Sr
I think thre is a great opportunity for the pair to hit 1.25 during this week.

I am long @1.2060
Why do you think this will hit 1.25 this week?
I'm long too, and I would be excited if this pair hits 1.25.
but I suppose as long as the euro crisis is still looming this pair will lurk around 1.203 - 1.218. imho
  • #1,249
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:54am Sep 12, 2011 11:54am
Quoting 82nd
Any of you super-duper world class traders know the exact time of the SNB to Euro peg breaking news, as reported by Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, etc.?

For anyone who has an exact time, I would appreciate naming the source of breaking news (name of feed).


Thanks
9.02 British Summer Time if I remember well. Ran Squawk
  • #1,250
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:56am Sep 12, 2011 11:56am
Quoting tonny47
9.02 British Summer Time if I remember well. Ran Squawk
Thanks bro. Many pips to you
  • #1,251
  • Sep 12, 2011 1:17pm Sep 12, 2011 1:17pm
No reason for any trader not to buy Euro/chf pair at current price.
We are just 30 to 40 pips far of 1.20 Crucial support.
Even if in worst case it gets penerated before SNB act, it would take more than 10 or 20 or more tests for this level to be penetrated so you'll gain big money by buying buying buying...
Especially if you have no other position opened for other pair, go ahead and buy then forget & wake up seeing it at high levels..Simple as that

Good Luck
  • #1,252
  • Sep 12, 2011 3:55pm Sep 12, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
No reason for any trader not to buy Euro/chf pair at current price.
We are just 30 to 40 pips far of 1.20 Crucial support.
Even if in worst case it gets penerated before SNB act, it would take more than 10 or 20 or more tests for this level to be penetrated so you'll gain big money by buying buying buying...
Especially if you have no other position opened for other pair, go ahead and buy then forget & wake up seeing it at high levels..Simple as that
Good Luck
So might be better to buy CALL OPTIONS or apply any other option strategy...
At least you won't be hit by any spikes and you can sleep well not being worried about your stop loss orders...
Just collect yr money in the midle of October
(BLUE) is the profit line on expiry date

Here's profit line of 6 weeks simple (1Lot size)
BUY CALL OPTION (strike:1.2000)
Attached Image


Here's profit line of 6 weeks simple (1Lot size)
BUY CALL OPTION (strike:1.2200)
SELL CALL OPTION (strike: 1.2400)
Attached Image




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  • #1,253
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:12pm Sep 12, 2011 4:12pm
Ha ha ha,,, this is fcukng funny...
It's ALWAYS WIN scenario.
The risk is limited only to downside, with breakeven on 1.1870
If price doesn't fall below 1.1870 you always cash out your money...
And price cannot fall below 1.2000 because SNB.
Geeeess.. I'm into it

6 weeks PUT options combination (1lot size-expiry 24.10.2011)

Attached Image


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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #1,254
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:30pm Sep 12, 2011 4:30pm
resistance is pretty much gone, just need a 20pip break upwards to clear it
  • #1,255
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:36pm Sep 12, 2011 5:36pm
Buy mode @ 1.20
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euchf.png Size: 60 KB
  • #1,256
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:15pm Sep 12, 2011 6:15pm
Yes Halkins, It is clearly a Win Win Scenario but maybe SNB would kiss our ** and open the game for play before another intervention, in all cases it would be a good gameplay, till 1.2000 get penetrated(if does later on) would have kept buying and gaining quick pips so SNB not smater than us if they would like to play it dirty...LOL
Today retracement at 1.2010/20, break is to 1.1900/10, while high price level is at 1.2300/10
  • #1,257
  • Sep 12, 2011 7:02pm Sep 12, 2011 7:02pm
I am also weary about how easy it is to trade this; might be too good to be true. However, I am long. If it does touch 1.20 it should bounce straight off this the first time with all the traders buying at that point.

Another thing is carry, I'm not really phased by carry and its not the reason I trade it, but I read below that it does for many traders. AUD longs would be great but with EURCHF what is the motivation for ppl to go on about carry? I'm happy not to be paying for a position, but holding it to make barely 1 pip a day u would need to have 10 standard contracts to make it worth while?

Can someone tell me what contract sizes are average with the ppl who trade this pair? usually 1 lot?
  • #1,258
  • Sep 13, 2011 3:47am Sep 13, 2011 3:47am
Hi guys,

regarding the fundamental stress Swiss has with its currency exchange, I would guess we will see a side movement in EUR/CHF for quite a time. The ATR is really low and the annoncement of the Swiss government to fix it above 1.2 may further strengthen the side trend

Regards
Numa
  • #1,259
  • Sep 13, 2011 4:26am Sep 13, 2011 4:26am
I think 1.20 will be crashed down!
go go go
  • #1,260
  • Sep 13, 2011 6:02am Sep 13, 2011 6:02am
Quoting @40
I think 1.20 will be crashed down!
Agree.

Could be a problem if all that paper&ink in SNB stays on stand by
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