Circular Trendlines

Since the move upwards to 4280 was a strong move, probabilities run high that the black curve is the new support level, and we are at the bottom of the range having a higher low than 3800 in place.

This emphasizes how important is the 3800-3920 for this pair. Beyond that as we discussed on the Monthly and Weekly time frames, we run the chance of dipping lower to 3000 level, and market psychology does not want this to happen yet.

When 2 support levels are within a distance of 100-120 pips from each other, such as the situation here, where the separation between Circle #1 and Circle #2 is 100 pips, it becomes increasingly risky to short price action within this zone.

More time will be spent for a better sell position.

Here are the details...

Most probable area to short the eur is between 4120-4140

i think like u my trend lines show me same

mister bubble

There are 3 high probability sell areas here...

I posted this before 5H
Same point u mention ,I told u most of time we have same view

This is my version of the same concept that you are using, except whenever I draw a line, I draw another one parallel to it and place it on the other end of the channel. So using this one I get the 4150-4175 region for a sell position. This is the area circled in the diagram.

Ur one of best 20 traders on FF, I told u

Thanks, its a privilage to have anybody who wants to contribute any technicals or comment about anything on this thread .

agree he is very good trader. and u not bad

you are very good also now i trade long distance trades like u and mister bubble . you said me that i have brave heart after your words i took 120 pips. for me enough. its better to trade long distance now i know how to trade a bit more

Good work bro
Sometime ur trade looks risky to me but i can't tell because i don't know ur TF and ur MM

I keep an eye on ur posts and looking forward to see more nice set up

GL

My system works on a 20-25 pip profit limit with a large stoploss.

I have the following components that are part of my money management:

1. What I do is that I have a excel spreadsheet where I dictate to myself that If I have X amount of money, how many lots I am allowed to go in with. This gives me a frame of reference in any market condition of how much to manage my risk.

2. I calculate my profit potential after 20 pips based on a fixed stoploss of 200 pips on the spreadsheet.
The way I use the spreadsheet is different than what I write in it:

The way its used is as follows:

Lets say that my spreadsheet says that if I have a $1000 then I am allowed to go with 1 10K lot for a target of 20 pips. When the time comes that I have to go in the market, I divide that 10K into smaller sizes and I actually dont go with 1 10K lot. I put 1 2K lot, then wait a bit, and see how it goes, and then I add another 2K lot as I see situation improving. If I put a 2K lot and it goes against me for a 100 pip or so, then I wait about 6-12 hours to see what is happening. I then re-analyze the market to see whether the reversal that I screwed up will go for me and how long I have to wait. In many instances, even if situation reverses against me, the lot size is so small that if after 200 pips it goes against me the loss is very minimal, and most often than not I devise alternate strategies to add lots in the direction that market is going to stop the loss from happening or make a smaller profit. I seldom loose even If market goes against me, because my inital risk is small, and I have lots more to cover myself and put into alternate strategies to make a profit.

So the purpose of the spreadsheet is to tell me how much I have to work in 20 pip increments for X number of lots. I divide X into smaller lots based on market sentiment. Never go in with the whole X lots. The work for X number of lots might take 15 minutes, or it might take 2 days. If on one lot I make 30 pips of profit, then I make sure on the other lot I go for 10 Pips of profit, so it averages to 20 pips.

3. I only go in the direction of the daily and H4 time frames. If the daily and H4 says its a sell, then I wait for sell opportunities, dont try buy situations.

My account does not grow into thousands of dollars overnight and lets say for a 10K lot where it might be 5 x 2K lots, In the worst case scenario I might be spending few days trying to find other market situations where I can rack up 20 pips on 5 2K lots. But usually 99% of the time 20 pips is a given.

4. I go with smaller lot sizes in the summer months.

5. Seldom loose money if I wait it out for 3-4 days. My loss is about 2 out of 10 trades and is about 1% to 2% of my account size.

6. I dont trade everyday, but I try to forecast everyday . I usually trade about 2-3 days in a business week.

7. I dont trade Non-Farm Payrolls.

8. All entries have to be at a trendline.

Current sentiment is still a sell, until a strong bounce to 4050 region

thank you for all your time here.

Could you elaborate on
#2 devise alternate strategies

and

#3 direction of the daily and four hour - What are you using to determine
direction or are you just looking at candles colors

Thank you
for your time

I will do my best to answer your question, but have to include some diagrams and some examples to show. But its a good question and I will definetly post an answer to it, just need a bit time.

Thanks

Very interesting thread, Kambooj thank you for your time and effort. Always interesting to see different ways of reading markets. One of my subscribed threads now
Keep it up!

gap opened clear on my trend line. its very strong trend line. i think that we will see 3666 first. than god now. maybe go lower maybe go higher. its independent how and where 4H candles closed . lets see stop loss now be +1

first TP hit now waiting 1.3740

Daily
The downward motion of the EUR is not done yet, and the final resting place of this drop
will be around the 3000 level.

Hourly
As for the interim for the next 2-3 days we will experience a retracement to a possible 3900 level. There is the 23.6 level at 3750 which is also important, if this level holds firm that means that the drop downwards will have the potential to go beyond 3000 level. The simple reason is out of observation that about 80%-95% of the time, when a impulse wave is in the initial stages of its development, the retracements that it will make initially are not more than 23.6, maximum 38.2 level. On a daily time frame, we only have 1 wave of a impulse being formed, and the other 4 waves are missing. This is a visual observation that is being made if you look at the daily time frame and compare what you see from September 1, 2011 to Nov 29, 2009 where the impulse wave was a 5th wave extension and came down to 1800 levels. We dont have 5 waves yet, but since the drop from 4550 was strong, we could be having a 1st wave extension trending impulse wave. But much is yet to be proven and unfolded before making the final claim.

It is highly recommended that long positions be put on the back burner, and in such situations you only consider or wait few days for a good short position to become available. 2 levels that