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EUR/CHF

  • #1,201
  • Sep 6, 2011 9:10am Sep 6, 2011 9:10am
I'm long from 1.2030. I guess there would be few people selling if the price happens to dip below 1.2. With proper MM tight stops may be more of a hazard in the short term than any kind of benefit. If the price should break significantly downwards below 1.2 I doubt many of those stops would be filled either and may only serve to lock in losses. Is this right or am I smoking my socks?
  • #1,202
  • Sep 6, 2011 11:16am Sep 6, 2011 11:16am
In short time, maybe, is possible enter long with eur/chf. But i think that keeping the chf weak above 1.20 will be difficult if the EZ still with problems and another countries too.
I´m not sure, perhaps in a few day we´ll see the chf reaching new highs.
no intervention can beat the market
  • #1,203
  • Sep 6, 2011 11:27am Sep 6, 2011 11:27am
Quoting BluEyeDemon
Hate to show u this pic then
Attachment
Nice job.
  • #1,204
  • Sep 6, 2011 11:37am Sep 6, 2011 11:37am
Quoting halkins
Guys, I've got an idea for SNB
I think Switzerland should take over Greece and become one country

I can see nothing else but only advantages:
1. Swiss will throw billions...
Be careful what you wish for! The Swiss might join the Euro and if that happens, it would indeed be what you described above.

And it would be one less volatile currency for us to trade.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #1,205
  • Sep 6, 2011 11:55am Sep 6, 2011 11:55am
This step has been flagged well in advance by the Swiss press and politicians in the countries have given the SNB full backing in relevant measures. In addition, this is not the first time in Switzerland’s history where an FX target has been adopted. In 1978, the SNB defined a target for the franc against the German mark, noting the exchange rate would be influenced in a way such that DEMCHF settled at a level well above 80 francs for every 100 marks. The language is similar this time – and investors should be very clear about the terminology the SNB is not pegging the franc to the EUR in any way.
If the experience of the 1978 peg is anything to go by, the SNB should be successful in defending this level (Chart 1). However, the risks for this strategy are great and the SNB will need to carefully calibrate its money market operations, not only to maintain its current stance penalizing CHF holdings via negative implied and outright yields, but also to prevent inflationary pressures from accumulating.
  • #1,206
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:06pm Sep 6, 2011 12:06pm
I think it is very safe to long EUR/CHF around 1.2020 level with stop at 1.1980. i made a few orders around 1.2020 2 hours ago and closed most of them. I only have one long order at 1.2013 and i will keep that order open, with s/l 1.1980 and tp 1.2420.
if EUR/CHF back to 1.2020 again i will buy it again and set stop 1.1980. i think the risk/reward for this pair is very good now. even if my orders are stopped out i got enough profits from my last a few trade on this pair today so i wont lose money in total. But if SNB did actually protect the 1.2000 level, then it would be a big kill after for a while.
Let's see what will happen.
  • #1,207
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:57pm Sep 6, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting Yuchen
I think it is very safe to long EUR/CHF around 1.2020 level with stop at 1.1980. i made a few orders around 1.2020 2 hours ago and closed most of them. I only have one long order at 1.2013 and i will keep that order open, with s/l 1.1980 and tp 1.2420.
if EUR/CHF back to 1.2020 again i will buy it again and set stop 1.1980. i think the risk/reward for this pair is very good now. even if my orders are stopped out i got enough profits from my last a few trade on this pair today so i wont lose money in total. But if SNB did actually protect the 1.2000...
I'd place the stop below 1.1880. Keep the 1% rule for the pegs.
Then just enjoy either the ride up, if not then the interest rate differential for a loooooooooooong time unil they unpeg it.
Free money.
  • #1,208
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:16pm Sep 6, 2011 5:16pm
Quote
So Guys,
who banked more than 1000 pips in this move? Anyone?

i was long from 0.7814 from sept 2..on monday i decided for some weired reasons to better take profits and closed my position at .786 for +44 pips profits


  • #1,209
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:21pm Sep 6, 2011 5:21pm
GBPNZD 1.9444-high SELLING
EURCHF LOW 1.2000 LONG
EURJPY 108.00 LONG


HOLDING THESE DIRECTIONS FOR A WHILE
  • #1,210
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:53pm Sep 6, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting hutrader
I'd place the stop below 1.1880. Keep the 1% rule for the pegs.
Then just enjoy either the ride up, if not then the interest rate differential for a loooooooooooong time unil they unpeg it.
Free money.
Pretty much my strategy. A SL that is too tight has a good chance of going wrong.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #1,211
  • Sep 7, 2011 3:28am Sep 7, 2011 3:28am
Hey guys, how exactly SNB finances its purchases? Don't you think that selling EUR/CHF could bring enourmous profits, if all long get stopped out and SNB finds itself unable to stay with the purchases?
go go go
  • #1,212
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:04am Sep 7, 2011 4:04am
...in case money runs out they will just print new money and causing inflation in switzerland

the more interesting question is where will all the euros go they bought...they cannot invest in german bonds cause it would weaken the Euro again causing trouble for themself
  • #1,213
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:07am Sep 7, 2011 4:07am
Chaps, anyone keen to comment on CHFTRY ? on the chart it is looking very tempting to buy. I am bearish USDCHF anyway, I dont think the CB action can impact mkt fundamentals in mid term, so looking for strange plays that can give the view a bit more umph. Turkey has a C/A deficit which will not tolerate USDTRY below 1.72 plus plenty of freaky political headlines..
  • #1,214
  • Edited 6:00am Sep 7, 2011 4:11am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting torkay77
...in case money runs out they will just print new money and causing inflation in switzerland

the more interesting question is where will all the euros go they bought...they cannot invest in german bonds cause it would weaken the Euro again causing trouble for themself
I watched in media that it's possible they will just PRINT empty money if needed, as between both, higher inflation would be better than extremly dear franc...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #1,215
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:33am Sep 7, 2011 4:33am
How will they print money? 9/10 of the francs are in foreign hands!!! Swiss banks are the safest in the world, how will they break this thrust? Their financial system will simply fall apart. They CAN't print indefinitely money...
go go go
  • #1,216
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:36am Sep 7, 2011 4:36am
Quoting @40
How will they print money? 9/10 of the francs are in foreign hands!!! Swiss banks are the safest in the world, how will they break this thrust? Their financial system will simply fall apart. They CAN't print indefinitely money...
Zimbabwe..
  • #1,217
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:52am Sep 7, 2011 4:52am
Quoting @40
How will they print money? 9/10 of the francs are in foreign hands!!! Swiss banks are the safest in the world, how will they break this thrust? Their financial system will simply fall apart. They CAN't print indefinitely money...
Yes, They can print money. With their strong CHF they can buy unlimited supply of paper and ink and print money. They will hire more people and reduce unemployment.

Question is, what next? They will buy unlimited amount of USD, EUR, ... and what next?

The best solutions for Swiss is announcement for eurozone
  • #1,218
  • Sep 7, 2011 5:03am Sep 7, 2011 5:03am
Ok, they will print as much franks, as there are euros in circulation? If eurocrysis deepens, and euro colapses (which is not unthinkable) this will be the greatest deal on the FX market. Someone is there to buy your inflated euros at great stable price indefinitely
go go go
  • #1,219
  • Sep 7, 2011 5:15am Sep 7, 2011 5:15am
Quoting @40
Ok, they will print as much franks, as there are euros in circulation? If eurocrysis deepens, and euro colapses (which is not unthinkable) this will be the greatest deal on the FX market. Someone is there to buy your inflated euros at great stable price indefinitely
Yes, and after that you will own money from country without economy. EU is under forest fire and Swiss can't survive because their economy is under middle of that fire...

Or SNB can hold 1:1.2 during this month, and after that will set limit around 1.3 announce negative interest rate, gold swiss franc, ... don't forget year '78!

Sold francs buy gold.
  • #1,220
  • Sep 7, 2011 5:38am Sep 7, 2011 5:38am
And what exactly happened in 78? SNB set an exchange rate target in 1978 and maintained it, although at the cost of high inflationin... after that the franc depreciated by 20% against the German mark within three weeks and followed an inflation of 7%


But the situation was different then...
go go go
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