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EUR/CHF

  • #1,161
  • Aug 31, 2011 6:36am Aug 31, 2011 6:36am
Quoting Haqu
Yeah, i always wait for the day closure, in current panic movements on the market, we can still end the day with EUR/CHF at 1.1900 . Playing save, as the global economical situation is difficult.
I think my friend all your concerns will be resolved in next 45minutes.
You don't have to wait till day candle closure.
First important news coming this week: ADP-Non Farm Employment.
Same story every month…
a) bad news for US economy EURCHF returns to its downtrend
b) good news for US economy bulls coming and EURCHF going up
c) results as expected - we consolidate (hesitate) and wait till Friday Non-Farm

That's it...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #1,162
  • Aug 31, 2011 10:05am Aug 31, 2011 10:05am
Good data for US and the retracment from bearish movement wasn't long, and we are going down again! So i think, the end of the day will send me a sell signal
  • #1,163
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:12pm Aug 31, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting Haqu
Good data for US and the retracment from bearish movement wasn't long, and we are going down again! So i think, the end of the day will send me a sell signal
Hi Haqu
Oh no... The ADP Non-Farm Empl wasn't "good".
As you can see ADP was about 10% below expectations.
This is why at the moment I stay bearish on EURCHF.
This is quite common investors buy "safe heaven" currencies when things are going wrong.

Actually I've had CHFNOK position opened since yesterday and today’s ADP help me a lot. At the moment I am about 2.00 % in profits and I think to close the deal soon, as it can reverse anytime, anywhere and it makes me real headache
I took CHFNOK instead of EURCHF because I couldn't find on EURCHF charts clearly visible support/resistance lines, neither clear swing high and lows. It was to "choppy" for me in last few days.
Yeah... good luck with your trade.

Here's the chart how it looked on CHFNOK...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFNOK.jpg Size: 104 KB
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  • #1,164
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:15pm Aug 31, 2011 1:15pm
Days Low till now :1.1523 (Currently 1.1533)

IMO:
1) Bears seems exhausted ( just made new lows twice , after 3 hrs with 2 Rejection pin bars in between, with no follow through & back up)
2) 1.1515-1.1530 (1.1500 as a whole) is a very important R turned S level !
3) If breaks next imp. S @ 1.1400.
4) Any movement up DOES has potential of retrace back to 1650's & 1750's level (latter probably tomorrow, if don't see more new lows by then)
5) USDCHF - Again at support levels .Similar PA & no follow through on new lows. Back up.
6) The PA, momentum & time it takes to reach those upper levels (if so), will surely give a clue about further possibilities

BIAS :
Neutral to Mild bullish (More time it spends here , more emphasis on retracement)

Lets WnWatch



P.S. Started adding longs at these lows with levels @ point (2) in mind.
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #1,165
  • Sep 1, 2011 5:26am Sep 1, 2011 5:26am
I belive this confirmed the end of retracment and back to the trend movement!

The EURO zone is near a great economic slow down, or even at the edge of recesion, so we are going back so save heaven franc. Bad data for us will only confirm this movement.
  • #1,166
  • Sep 1, 2011 5:57am Sep 1, 2011 5:57am
Hi Traders

The end of the week would be very interesting.
Pay attention on today’s ISM at 3.00pm (London time)
Please note that expectations are very low this time.
First time in last two years (August 2009) expectations are so low , below 50. Just like during "bank crisis" back in 2009.
This is psychological test for investors.

If now, even such low figures disappoint the market again, I believe all trades will rush for buying “safe heaven” swiss frankie again.
And this could be a massive move testing new lows.
On the other hand, if data will be a positive surprise, we can see EURCHF returning to its highs up again...
------

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: corel014.jpg Size: 46 KB
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  • #1,167
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:18am Sep 2, 2011 9:18am
this pair is by far one of the most volatile pair in fx market, wonder why not many people discussing it. daily swing can generate more than 400 pips, crazy stuff.

today is the first time i traded this pair, and I was happy in euro session and sad in ny. euro swiss can randomly jump or drop 100pips at will. any tip trading this thing ?
Lets Soar The Sky
  • #1,168
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:29am Sep 2, 2011 9:29am
Quoting soartosky
this pair is by far one of the most volatile pair in fx market, wonder why not many people discussing it. daily swing can generate more than 400 pips, crazy stuff.

today is the first time i traded this pair, and I was happy in euro session and sad in ny. euro swiss can randomly jump or drop 100pips at will. any tip trading this thing ?
True... I usually use daily or 8H charts for my setups, but when trading CHF 1hour charts do me my best setup.
Wise money management is crucial when trading CHF.
1Lot (100K) position in EURCHF is like opening (400K) in EURUSD when considering real risk & reward ratio.
Well, good for gambling anyway
Sometimes you can have 2% in an hour or two !!!
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #1,169
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:32am Sep 2, 2011 9:32am
Quoting soartosky
this pair is by far one of the most volatile pair in fx market, wonder why not many people discussing it. daily swing can generate more than 400 pips, crazy stuff.
CHF is a panic currency, it's nearly all the time in some kind of panic mode. Panic selling, panic buying. All the CHF pairs are very risky to trade for the average people and might be suitable only for the professionals.
Enter Signature
  • #1,170
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:51am Sep 2, 2011 9:51am
what u think about gap from 12-15 august?
we closed it and we can go extend south walk or big retracement in north ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,171
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:49am Sep 2, 2011 10:49am
Quoting soartosky
this pair is by far one of the most volatile pair in fx market, wonder why not many people discussing it. daily swing can generate more than 400 pips, crazy stuff.

today is the first time i traded this pair, and I was happy in euro session and sad in ny. euro swiss can randomly jump or drop 100pips at will. any tip trading this thing ?
In big pic seems to like the weekly pivots and drilled down the psych levels. Top chart is 4hr.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,172
  • Sep 2, 2011 12:34pm Sep 2, 2011 12:34pm
There should yet be time for a swing tonight based on 15/30min bollinger bands (5,3). Pretty much squeezed, looking RSI and volumes for direction.

Prefer to upside.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #1,173
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:10am Sep 6, 2011 3:10am
what the hell happened?
  • #1,174
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:12am Sep 6, 2011 3:12am
Quoting ProreX
what the hell happened?
omg 800 pips...crazy!
First rule is not to lose. Second rule is not to forget the first rule...
  • #1,175
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:13am Sep 6, 2011 3:13am
SNB set a 120 minimum for CHF. 900 pip move on the session EUR/CHF.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,176
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:19am Sep 6, 2011 3:19am
Quoting Fudomyo
SNB set a 120 minimum for CHF. 900 pip move on the session.

What the fffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff#$%@#%@#~! I'm glad I wasn't trading this yet, a peg what a banking scam. Now I wonder what other currency is next, so I can ride it all the way down/up... LOL!
  • #1,177
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:25am Sep 6, 2011 3:25am
I wonder if someone was short on swiss pairs without a SL?

More important if people had SLs did they work with such a volatile market?


Anyway so I just bought some Eur/Chf @ 1.20

lol

Sl 1.1850
TP heaven
  • #1,178
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:29am Sep 6, 2011 3:29am
Quoting Bernanke_Sr
I wonder if someone was short on swiss pairs without a SL?

More important if people had SLs did they work with such a volatile market?


Anyway so I just bought some Eur/Chf @ 1.20

lol

Sl 1.1850
TP heaven
They would not have been filled. But who would have been short anyway?

This has been on the wires today, so the markets had fair warning which was why it crept up prior to the announcement.

Besides price already had broken resistance, so the bull move was on before the thrust candle.




You bought at the close target. Why?

The move is complete.
  • #1,179
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:31am Sep 6, 2011 3:31am
missed the long entry - got short @ 1.2137 took already Profit (~100 Pips within 5 minutes) That's what I call scalping
  • #1,180
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:36am Sep 6, 2011 3:36am
so if the swissie is not the safe heaven any more - Gold could reach 2000 $ very very soon - wanted to short XAU/USD first - but that would be a suicide mission...
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