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  • #1,221
  • Aug 24, 2011 12:55pm Aug 24, 2011 12:55pm
On happy68's contribution I have done a recount and Im afraid my count is even more bearish. I was concentrating on recent price action.

a full wave 3 down is really more bearish than a wave 3 of 5 so if this plays out 'Houston we have a problem'

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,222
  • Aug 24, 2011 10:18pm Aug 24, 2011 10:18pm
Quoting Olu
Thanks Happy68 for contributing to the thread. Yes you have a point. However I read it somewhere that we can have such extended throw-overs sometimes. Can you present a count?

Olu
Yes, sometimes there are extended waves, but not wave 2. I can not present a count because I don't like Elliott and have now time to analize. But I know the basic rules

You have very good trading system, why do you waste time with Elloitt?
  • #1,223
  • Aug 25, 2011 11:34am Aug 25, 2011 11:34am
Quoting Happy68
Yes, sometimes there are extended waves, but not wave 2. I can not present a count because I don't like Elliott and have now time to analize. But I know the basic rules

You have very good trading system, why do you waste time with Elloitt?
Thank you for your nice words about my system. As with all traders concentrate on monetizing the systems we have.

About Elliott waves. I use this system as an overview of longer term trading. As you know this thread is about making good trades that do not need close monitoring. No day trading is allowed on this thread because we have full time jobs. EW when I can count it right gives me a longerterm overview which I can hang my bullishness or bearishness.

I also use it to find the beginnings of the impulse moves. I am limited to main waves counts as I am not skilled eniugh to go down to the minute or sub minute level counting only the main TFs like the daily, weekly or higher. I am aware of its failings but my application of it has helped me more than it has impeded my trading success.

As traders everyday is a learning opportunity.

Hope this has answered your question.

Thanks again for contributing to the thread. I look forward to reading more from you

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,224
  • Aug 25, 2011 2:40pm Aug 25, 2011 2:40pm
If he signals QE3 then the

 

  1. stock markets will rally
  2. usdcad will weaken
  3. audusd will rally
  4. Commodities will rally
  5. Gold and silver will rally

If he just waffles on the opposite will happen

On the other hand we could have a 'buy the rumour sell the fact scenario' and the opposite of the scenarios listed above will happen

Dont you just love the fact that we are mainly technical traders.

Olu

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,225
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:21pm Aug 29, 2011 3:21pm
There was a holiday in the UK so no trading for me. Was busy spending time with the family. It turned out to be a very nice day

Can I just point you all to usdsgd. This pair has been in a consistent down trend for long and I dont feel it is done yet. Why? because I think we will have QE3 despite no signals as such from Bernanke

If we break to lows I will be going short. Before the break though we might get a rally of some sort. If that happens wait for the reversion to the trend, sell and then add to position when the low around 1.2000 is broken
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,226
  • Aug 29, 2011 4:51pm Aug 29, 2011 4:51pm
Please find uploaded a daily chart of October ICE Sugar

A clear price structure is showing on the chart where price made a top and has retested that top forming the beginnings of a double top price pattern.

At this stage we cant call it a double top because to break 26.38 area to the downside. If it does the target will be 21.00 area!

Conservative traders need to wait for the break of 26.38 looking for 21 area
Aggresive traders can try to sell as close as possible to 31.50 stop above 32.00 looking for 21 area and using the 26.38 break to add to positions

your own personal d/d is necessary. By the way if price blows past 31.85 the pattern has failed

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,227
  • Aug 30, 2011 6:22pm Aug 30, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting Olu
Please find uploaded a daily chart of October ICE Sugar

A clear price structure is showing on the chart where price made a top and has retested that top forming the beginnings of a double top price pattern.

At this stage we cant call it a double top because to break 26.38 area to the downside. If it does the target will be 21.00 area!

Conservative traders need to wait for the break of 26.38 looking for 21 area
Aggresive traders can try to sell as close as possible to 31.50 stop above 32.00 looking for 21 area and using the 26.38 break to add...


Hey BBO...I survived an earthquake and a hurricane all in the same week!!!

Yes, I like this very much...time always tells all.

Big trades are setting up.






windblown golfer
  • #1,228
  • Aug 30, 2011 6:37pm Aug 30, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting golferfx
Hey BBO...I survived an earthquake and a hurricane all in the same week!!!

Yes, I like this very much...time always tells all.

Big trades are setting up.






windblown golfer
Thank God you survived the nasty weather. My heart goes out to all that have lost family and belongings.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,229
  • Aug 30, 2011 6:39pm Aug 30, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting golferfx
You may use any of my pic's...I gather them from my friends and I don't think they are CW.



Good trade set up....GbpAud short @1.5600.

Target open for now.




good hunting,



golfer






Post-vacation update...300+pips

I'll watch the 1.4800 and unload a few.

Let's ride the trend as low as she goes.


golfer
  • #1,230
  • Aug 30, 2011 6:53pm Aug 30, 2011 6:53pm
Quoting golferfx
Post-vacation update...300+pips

I'll watch the 1.4800 and unload a few.

Let's ride the trend as low as she goes.


golfer
took 100 pips in the gbpaud. Looking for reentry
currently short the eurjpy
donated to the markets shorting the audusd and longing the usdcad
usdsgd refusing to break below 1.2000


Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,231
  • Aug 31, 2011 1:59pm Aug 31, 2011 1:59pm
Find uploaded a weekly chart of the gbpusd with 13/34 ema on it. These EMAs are about to cross confirming long term weakness in the pair

The weekly candle has not closed yet so no conclusions can be made yet. But is certainly one for the radar

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,232
  • Sep 1, 2011 7:15am Sep 1, 2011 7:15am
Quoting Olu
Find uploaded a weekly chart of the gbpusd with 13/34 ema on it. These EMAs are about to cross confirming long term weakness in the pair

The weekly candle has not closed yet so no conclusions can be made yet. But is certainly one for the radar

Olu









p.s. I think you have sma's on the chart ?
  • #1,233
  • Edited 3:10pm Sep 1, 2011 3:08pm | Edited 3:10pm
Quoting golferfx



p.s. I think you have sma's on the chart ?
Yes they were SMAs. Pls find uploaded the new chart with EMAs

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,234
  • Sep 1, 2011 4:49pm Sep 1, 2011 4:49pm
...game changer ahead ?






golfer
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  • #1,235
  • Sep 2, 2011 12:16am Sep 2, 2011 12:16am
Employment figures coming out today @1330uk time.

These figures are eagerly awaited by the market - and the Feds. Funny enough if the figures are bad QE3 is in the bag


Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,236
  • Sep 2, 2011 12:48pm Sep 2, 2011 12:48pm
found out the pair on golfer's chart two posts ago. If you sauced it out well done. If you didnt... Well done as well

The chart is a monthly chart of the usddkk and the preferred way to trade it is to wait for the breakout of the triangle and go with it. I have uploaded the monthly, weekly and daily charts and like golfer said you just know something is afoot and a breakout that will last and last is going to ensue. Looking at the chart it appears to want to breakout to the upside

 

  1. stochastich support an upside breakout on the 3 timeframes (very rare)
  2. daily price attacking the upper trendline ferrociously
  3. stoch on the weekly and monthly TF have turned up and are nowhere overbought meaning the potential for long periods of upward movement

My mentor would say patience. You dont want to get into chop, get stopped out and then watch the market go your way. 'Let the market show its hand' he would say.

Olu

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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,237
  • Sep 4, 2011 3:40pm Sep 4, 2011 3:40pm
Find uploaded a daily chart of the dollar index. This index which indicates the combined strength of the us$ against a basket of other major currencies. After a strong downtrend and recent consolidation it is showing some strength. It appears we have strong support around 73.50 and we have a breakout of the downtrend line.

This chart supports the analysis of the usddkk which is breaking out as we speak.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,238
  • Sep 5, 2011 6:23pm Sep 5, 2011 6:23pm
...not looking good Olu...is this the kiss goodbye ?


golfer
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  • #1,239
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:20am Sep 6, 2011 12:20am
Quoting golferfx
...not looking good Olu...is this the kiss goodbye ?


golfer
We are going to new lows imho. but I am selling after the breakdown. we have abit of retracement but it looks like the calm before the storm...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,240
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:41am Sep 6, 2011 5:41am
Please find uploaded a 4hr chart of the above commodity

I dont normally use line charts but one learns everyday and it strips out all the intracandle or intrabar volatility by charting only the close.

Price is just resting on the lower channel line and she might blow soon.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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