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  • #1,181
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:51pm Aug 2, 2011 7:51pm
Quoting efeezeefx
MONTHLY BEARISH BAT: Here's a trade for the future.....

Attachment
Hi - shorted this pair at 101.64 for 97 pips! Thanks for the heads-up, Efe!!
  • #1,182
  • Aug 2, 2011 11:10pm Aug 2, 2011 11:10pm
Quoting Olu
This pair ia a nightmare to short and when I saw that pinbar I knew I had my work cut out for me. The chart below show my argument why I think it will go down
Olu
Yes, the candle formed is not "perfect" As seen now, we should really see some more pressure downwards. Still will bet on long - have a pending order on 365 MA and resistance & new trendline at 1,3600. Will see what will happen from then on. Lots of buy pressure in my opinion on that level.
  • #1,183
  • Aug 3, 2011 12:11am Aug 3, 2011 12:11am
Quoting 21vs7
Yes, the candle formed is not "perfect" As seen now, we should really see some more pressure downwards. Still will bet on long - have a pending order on 365 MA and resistance & new trendline at 1,3600. Will see what will happen from then on. Lots of buy pressure in my opinion on that level.
you might be right here i just saw a 60 pip spike up...
also today might be an 'up' day in the stock market and this paiir is positively correlated
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,184
  • Aug 3, 2011 12:26am Aug 3, 2011 12:26am
There has been some 'verbal' intervention by the SNB. The result is a spike lowering of the chf accreoos the board

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,185
  • Edited 9:44am Aug 4, 2011 8:42am | Edited 9:44am
Short possibly coming up...
This pair has been in a strong downtrend of late and has recently had a 'massive' rally. However usually this is a selling opportunity not a change in trend

The yeild differential supports the aud so a short of this pair is carry positive

Stochastic is getting really oversold.

UK has more problems than Australia. If china has a problem then Australia has a problem

Even if this is a change of trend we will usually have a retest of the lows to bring in new buyers

I have drawn line that I think are relevant to price on the chart. Resistance is an area not a fixed line so price can decide to turn anywhere between these lines

One thing though, This pair goes down when the stock market goes up. Makes sense to look for yield and take more risk when all is well. At the moment the stock market is tanking and this pair is rising. Any intervention program e.g QE3,4,5 will send the stock market upwards and this pair down.
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,186
  • Aug 4, 2011 2:18pm Aug 4, 2011 2:18pm
Coming up on 1994 lows.

It's now on my radar.




golfer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,187
  • Aug 4, 2011 4:32pm Aug 4, 2011 4:32pm
Do we bottom here...

Maybe not.



Plan ahead,




golfer
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  • #1,188
  • Aug 8, 2011 11:40am Aug 8, 2011 11:40am
Nasty Nasty day on the markets today. Volatolity has gone throught the roof! VIX - the fear indicator is up 40%!

I eas looking for a bottom of some sort but nothing. Sometimes no position is a good position

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,189
  • Aug 9, 2011 2:15pm Aug 9, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting golferfx
Do we bottom here...

Maybe not.



Plan ahead,




golfer






I guess not BBO...further south ?

Whats the next target area ?






gFx
  • #1,190
  • Aug 9, 2011 2:23pm Aug 9, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting golferfx
Coming up on 1994 lows.

It's now on my radar.




golfer



We broke the '94 lows and we should grind lower from here until we see a good bottom/basing formation.

Trade the trend till it bends.

This is going to be fun.




gFx
  • #1,191
  • Aug 9, 2011 5:30pm Aug 9, 2011 5:30pm
Here is my elliott take on the aussie dollar. I have uploaded a 4h charted labelled with my elliott interpretation of the price action.

We had a nice run up and right now we are having a decline that looks impulsive to the downside. I could indicate 3 waves down. Wave 4 should be an upmove and should be theree waves up. We are near resistance @1.0400 and I feel the upside is not a lot anymore. That the wave 4 up is either complete or almost complete and could carry to 1.05xx area. So I expect a wave 5 down which should carry below the 0.9926 low. So I would be selling reversals in the 1.04xx area for a new low.


As usual please note that your own dilligence needs to be done...

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-4h-10082011-0120uk.jpg Size: 111 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,192
  • Aug 9, 2011 5:34pm Aug 9, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting golferfx
Do we bottom here...

Maybe not.



Plan ahead,
golfer
The chf pairs took it on the chin today. Everyone seems to be running into the chf for protection. chf gained 300+ points against the us$ and the euro yesterday.

As for a bottom, only time will tell. But once the price action gives us a clue it would be a beauty of a trade

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,193
  • Aug 11, 2011 2:32pm Aug 11, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting Olu
Here is my elliott take on the aussie dollar. I have uploaded a 4h charted labelled with my elliott interpretation of the price action.

We had a nice run up and right now we are having a decline that looks impulsive to the downside. I could indicate 3 waves down. Wave 4 should be an upmove and should be theree waves up. We are near resistance @1.0400 and I feel the upside is not a lot anymore. That the wave 4 up is either complete or almost complete and could carry to 1.05xx area. So I expect a wave 5 down which should carry below the 0.9926 low....
We went down as expected in what I would term a wave 1 of 5 of a bigger wave 5. Now we are retracing the move in what I call a wave 2 of the bigger 5 wave down.

Theoretically we shouldnt blow past 1.041x area bevore we have that big fall to bellow the last low. Wlliott allows for an extended retracement where we could hit 1.05xx. If we blow past there my elliott numbering is waaaaaay off!.

I relish nailing the decline. It would be the biggest opportinity to practice holding.

As Golfer says do your own d/D. Your account is your own and what you do with it is 100% your responsibility.

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,194
  • Aug 11, 2011 3:31pm Aug 11, 2011 3:31pm
This pair is signalling a sell

Price is under the ma
stoch has turned down too
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,195
  • Aug 15, 2011 3:38am Aug 15, 2011 3:38am
I have been doing a bit of elliott wave study as well as conventional tech analysis over the weekend

What am I expecting this wee and why?

I expect some attempt at rallying of the stock market and then we will shift to the downside again.

The reason I expect this is that according to elliott we are in a retracement wave 4 mode. When wave 4 completes we will start a wave 5 to the downside which will manifest in 5 smaller wave down. This is new lows territory. At the moment all the stoch markets are hitting resistance and are straining to go beyond resistance

When the markets give up on going up that is when to sell.

Implications of the above:

It means the us$ willl gain on all the other currencies because of the safe haven status. The dollar index will rally and the jpy and the chf will strenghten

In summary:

Stock market will rally for a day or two and then a fall will begin.

NB:
My Elliott wave analysis are on a macro level only and dont claim to be a guru. Google elliott to find gurus on the internet.


Conventional technical analysis
says patience and wait for the the end of all the retracements in the market and then sell. eg usdchf, eurchf eurjpy etc

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,196
  • Aug 15, 2011 6:33am Aug 15, 2011 6:33am
Quoting Olu
I have been doing a bit of elliott wave study as well as conventional tech analysis over the weekend

What am I expecting this wee and why?

I expect some attempt at rallying of the stock market and then we will shift to the downside again.

The reason I expect this is that according to elliott we are in a retracement wave 4 mode. When wave 4 completes we will start a wave 5 to the downside which will manifest in 5 smaller wave down. This is new lows territory. At the moment all the stoch markets are hitting resistance and are straining...


Good job BBO...I think your spot on.


Plan ahead !




golfer
Attached Image
  • #1,197
  • Aug 15, 2011 10:08am Aug 15, 2011 10:08am
Quoting golferfx
Good job BBO...I think your spot on.


Plan ahead !




golfer
I just need to find a way to monetize this observation. By the way love that picture. If you dont mind can I use it?

OLu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,198
  • Aug 15, 2011 10:14am Aug 15, 2011 10:14am
If we dont breakout up then we start to go down in that wave 5 move. If we break up I believe we have just postponed things for a day or two...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500-1H-15082011-1811uk.jpg Size: 65 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,199
  • Aug 15, 2011 4:42pm Aug 15, 2011 4:42pm
Quoting Olu
I just need to find a way to monetize this observation. By the way love that picture. If you dont mind can I use it?

OLu



You may use any of my pic's...I gather them from my friends and I don't think they are CW.



Good trade set up....GbpAud short @1.5600.

Target open for now.




good hunting,



golfer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,200
  • Aug 15, 2011 6:02pm Aug 15, 2011 6:02pm
Quoting golferfx
You may use any of my pic's...I gather them from my friends and I don't think they are CW.



Good trade set up....GbpAud short @1.5600.

Target open for now.




good hunting,



golfer
Thanks Golfer

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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