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  • #1,201
  • Aug 15, 2011 8:42pm Aug 15, 2011 8:42pm
pls find a 4h chart of the audusd uploaded for your consideration. I have been bleating on and on about this pair falling below .99xx for about a week. So I add more evidence supporting my thoughts

Today the RBA have left rates on hold. The statement following was not hawkish either.

On the chart I have drawn a wedge. A wedge occurs because price tries to go up but there is no impulsiveness in the move. No conviction. We are getting to a point where there is no longer anywhere for price to go but to break out of the wedge. A wegde in an uptrend usually leads to a break down.

BTW the stochastics is in the stratosphere and has turned and crossed too showing weakening momentum to the upside as well. Come on wave5 down. Come on.

So there you have it. Calling for weakness in the ausie dollar

Olu
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Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-4h-16082011-0234uk.jpg Size: 106 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,202
  • Aug 15, 2011 9:00pm Aug 15, 2011 9:00pm
Also find uploaded a weekly chart of the eurcad. This pair has been going up and is nearing my extremes of the limits of a wave 4 end at 1.4344 ish

A breakout of the the top line will force a rethink of my count and strategy but I would not waste time in getting long. However right now I am keeping an eye on this pair to wall to new lows
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,203
  • Aug 16, 2011 3:56am Aug 16, 2011 3:56am
Quoting Olu
pls find a 4h chart of the audusd uploaded for your consideration. I have been bleating on and on about this pair falling below .99xx for about a week. So I add more evidence supporting my thoughts

Today the RBA have left rates on hold. The statement following was not hawkish either.

On the chart I have drawn a wedge. A wedge occurs because price tries to go up but there is no impulsiveness in the move. No conviction. We are getting to a point where there is no longer anywhere for price to go but to break out of the wedge. A wegde in an uptrend...
Sell any retracement towards the breakdown. That is what I would do on this one to join the party.

OLu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,204
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:42am Aug 16, 2011 4:42am
Trend line break supported by a stoch turn

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,205
  • Aug 16, 2011 1:36pm Aug 16, 2011 1:36pm
Will it turn or break?

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,206
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:38am Aug 17, 2011 11:38am
Quoting Olu
Sell any retracement towards the breakdown. That is what I would do on this one to join the party.

OLu
@1.0585 stop now at b/e. Will be looking to close this if there is any strength in the sp500

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,207
  • Aug 17, 2011 4:56pm Aug 17, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting Olu
@1.0585 stop now at b/e. Will be looking to close this if there is any strength in the sp500

Olu

Man your quick...


I'm going to call you Quick Draw McGraw from now on....


hehehehe.


gFx
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  • #1,208
  • Aug 17, 2011 6:50pm Aug 17, 2011 6:50pm
I am generally not available for intraday entries but I happened to be there at the right time

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,209
  • Aug 17, 2011 6:50pm Aug 17, 2011 6:50pm
Please note that according to my charts these have not activated yet and we will need to run through them again about 24 hours from now

audusd (short)
usdchf (short)
usdcad (long)
eurchf (short)
chfjpy (long)
audnzd (short)
gbpchf (short)

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,210
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:04pm Aug 18, 2011 5:04pm
BBO/QD,

We talked about this alooong time ago...

We have a very good set up on the GBPcad.

Break of the weekly trendline.

5 month bottom bouncing giving us a nice 1-2-3.

13/34 ma's about to go positive on weekly charts

Trading weeklys, we need to see the breakout first and foremost...after that we can take a position and manage from there.

Do we always go back and retest the breakout line...not all the time folks.

My strategy...get on board and manage the trade (weekly close )

Please do your on risk/DD


good hunting,


golfer
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  • #1,211
  • Aug 21, 2011 7:04pm Aug 21, 2011 7:04pm
Quoting golferfx
BBO/QD,

We talked about this alooong time ago...

We have a very good set up on the GBPcad.

Break of the weekly trendline.

5 month bottom bouncing giving us a nice 1-2-3.

13/34 ma's about to go positive on weekly charts

Trading weeklys, we need to see the breakout first and foremost...after that we can take a position and manage from there.

Do we always go back and retest the breakout line...not all the time folks.

My strategy...get on board and manage the trade (weekly close )

Please do your on risk/DD


good hunting,


golfer...
Thanks Golfer for flagging this one. 1.65xx is key on this one. It is an excellent buy and hold.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,212
  • Aug 21, 2011 7:23pm Aug 21, 2011 7:23pm
As we know the stock market is in free fall at the moment. Take the FTSE100. We are sub 5000 atm! Think about all those pension plans, structured savings plans and buy and hold hedge funds - all under water.

This week I expect an attempt to regain composure but then a quick falling away in a powerful wave 3 of 5 down. This should be impulsive therefore I would not trade long but look to sell from higher up.

Friday there is an important speech by Bernanke so the markets will want to keep him on edge before then by tanking hard. My take!. People want some action from the leaders and therefor the markets will keep travelling to the downside till something credible is announced.

However I believe that after something credible and believable is announced (and it does not include qe3 or any bond buy-backs) we will then have the mother of bargain hunting and rally.

So the long and short of it (funny eh?) is

Short indices
long us$
long gold
long silver

Be nimble.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,213
  • Aug 22, 2011 5:37pm Aug 22, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting Olu
As we know the stock market is in free fall at the moment. Take the FTSE100. We are sub 5000 atm! Think about all those pension plans, structured savings plans and buy and hold hedge funds - all under water.

This week I expect an attempt to regain composure but then a quick falling away in a powerful wave 3 of 5 down. This should be impulsive therefore I would not trade long but look to sell from higher up.

Friday there is an important speech by Bernanke so the markets will want to keep him on edge before then by tanking hard. My take!. People...
As stated above the markets took a stab at rallying but later in the day the dow30 gave up a 200point rally to close up around 30 or so. Not good at all.

Gold has crossed 1900 to the upside. Silver is up a lot as well. US$ is mixed

The candle pattern on the dow chart looks like a continuation pattern to the downside. So maybe we will revert back to the downtrend...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,214
  • Aug 22, 2011 5:40pm Aug 22, 2011 5:40pm
The followind are trades confirmed by my system. Obviously your own d/d is required. It is just highlighting so that you can compare with the signals from your systems.

audusd - gave a short signal earlier but hasnt moved much so it can still be traded like a new signal.

usdchf - same as the audusd - can be traded still. However be aware that the SNB is against you on this one. This goes for all the xxxchf pairs.

chfjpy - long signal - That's all

audnzd - short signal - 'too exotic' for slurpee he would say

euraud - long signal

OLu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,215
  • Aug 23, 2011 7:43am Aug 23, 2011 7:43am
gbpjpy
usdnok (short)
euraud (long)
usdsgd (short)
eurnok (short)
gbpnzd (short)

most of these are 'exotics' and very volatile. It is just for us to see the signal at work. However gbpjpy, euraud and usdsgd move smoothly and is tradeable

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,216
  • Aug 23, 2011 7:54am Aug 23, 2011 7:54am
The Dow futures have rallied hard right out of the gate and like yesterday is starting to lose steal as we near the american markets open. The us$ has been canned and my short audusd trade is under water

If we do the same as yesterday the position will recover but if we dont then my stop loss is in place...

Friday is what the markets are waiting for. In fact the 'buy the rumour sell the fact' principle is playing out right now. The market, I read somewhere, and agree with, is factoring in QE3 and hoping Bernanke will announce this on Friday. If he doesnt then we could lose 500 points on the Dow! If he does then the markets may stabilise but ultimately go down

If we have QE3 then get on board short the us$ and hang on for dear life.

We wait and see...

As usual be nimble...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,217
  • Aug 23, 2011 5:43pm Aug 23, 2011 5:43pm
Find uploaded a daily chart of the above pair.

We have the stochs turned up.
We have price action winding to a point ina symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles can break either way. We are wound so tight that all that is left is a breakout. This can be traded with a bracket order or a directional order if you have a particular bias. Targets for any breakout is 250-300pips either way it breaks

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,218
  • Aug 24, 2011 12:02pm Aug 24, 2011 12:02pm
I have uploaded a daily chart of the nasdaq 100 with my own take of elliott numbering on it. We are currently in a wave 5 down section. This wave 5 will sugdivide into 5 waves as well.

I labelled a part ii? which is questioning whether wave 2 of 5 has completed. If it has then we can look forward to a strong wave 3 of 5 down. If it hasnt then we have bit of upside to come. It might be that the strong wave down wuold be a present from Bernanke on friday if it hasnt started already
The long and short of this is that whatever signals we use to signal a reversal should be acted upon. But it has to be your signal

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,219
  • Edited 1:12pm Aug 24, 2011 1:12pm | Edited 1:12pm
The high of wave 2 have to be lower than the beginning of wave 1. Sorry, You don't have 5-wave acc Elliott
  • #1,220
  • Aug 24, 2011 2:37pm Aug 24, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting Happy68
The high of wave 2 have to be lower than the beginning of wave 1. Sorry, You don't have 5-wave acc Elliott
Thanks Happy68 for contributing to the thread. Yes you have a point. However I read it somewhere that we can have such extended throw-overs sometimes. Can you present a count?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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