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Sonic R. System

  • #25,801
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:08pm Aug 31, 2011 7:08pm
Quoting traderathome
ddaytrader, what do you think about all this, having just completed a good trade on it?
Here is how I am looking at it right now, TAH. Sell stop in the 110.1x area depending upon your broker's feed and spread, SL in high 110.3x to low 110.4x, and a TP at 109.4X

If the down trend will continue, then I would expect price to stay below that red rectangle, and if price pokes below the blue rectangle, I'd not be surprised if it doesn't put in a quick bottom and never get close to my TP.

Let the market decide, right TAH?
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  • #25,802
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:11pm Aug 31, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting ddaytrader
TAH, your stop loss is there to cut your losses short. The TP's are there to let your profits run. It is the only way. If you start taking "modest profits" you will go broke, as your profits will not cover your losses. You know the old saying, that "you can't go broke taking a profit"? Well, maybe you won't go broke taking one modest profit, but if you start making that a habit, you will find yourself on the wrong end of the equity curve.

It is ok to take a loss.

By the way, I agree with Hans - your trade selection sucked. Be more picky...
Well, I hope you are right.
  • #25,803
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:36pm Aug 31, 2011 7:36pm
Quoting alrightfrank
thanks so much steve but i already tried this but still it wont show up the Rgl & Rgh on my M15 screen, well anyways ill just settle myself just to check it on a higher frame w/c is a bit hassle though... thank you mate
If your range lines are on the chart, but off the screen, then scroll your chart down. Squeeze it to be shorter. Put cursor in right margin. Right click and hold, while you drag the cursor lower in the margin.

Hope this helps.
  • #25,804
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:43pm Aug 31, 2011 7:43pm
EJ:

Entered short, EP= 110.38. I have been waiting for price to come up to the 89 sma line, which it sometimes does in the asian session if there is likelyhood of an opposite move later.

After entry, price continued on up, about 5 pips higher than I estimated. But the kicker is how fast the Market dropped the price after it was "finished" up there!

I intend to move the SL lower, after things settle out. Meanwhile, if volatility causes price to pass 110.45, I'll likely raise the SL to just above FE (a) and leave it there until, hopefully, we get a good run down.
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  • #25,805
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:09pm Aug 31, 2011 8:09pm
Poss buy on USD/JPY.
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  • #25,806
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:15pm Aug 31, 2011 8:15pm
Quoting ddaytrader
...If the down trend will continue, then I would expect price to stay below that red rectangle...Let the market decide, right TAH?
Market decided - no fill on the short, as per SonicR price never traded low enough to justify a proper SonicR entry. In addition, price came back to test earler broken support as resistance and resistance failed to materialize. Price should now continue higher and test the next red resistance level shown on my chart.

This is no time to be short Euro's and long Yen, that's for sure!
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  • #25,807
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:16pm Aug 31, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting hunter101
Poss buy on USD/JPY.
On my chart the price has almost touched the range high for the day. Unless there is a large pullback, I don't see a buy setup at all. It is all over with.
  • #25,808
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:23pm Aug 31, 2011 8:23pm
EJ and UJ Market Comment:

Both just had a rapid rise in price. UJ even about reached the range high for the day. EJ rise fell short about 60 pips from the range high for the day. The thing is, the trades were heaviest at the higher prices. So, this looks like another drive up to high prices to do most of the trading there, i.e., shorting/selling. I don't yet find any "news" that would otherwise explain a rapid rise on light volume followed by heavier trading at the higher prices, so this might be early posturing in the asian market for a drop later today or tomorrow. Just a guess. Time will tell. Yes, let the Marktet decide.....
  • #25,809
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:45pm Aug 31, 2011 8:45pm
Quoting traderathome
Hans, and look....., here is the same frigg'in setup almost. And I am tempted to take it again. See, there is lots of pips to the high for the week. And when the Market decided to make me "wrong", I was right, but had the misfortune to be using a SL..... From the looks of the volume study, the Market simply whipped the price down, stole all of the long positions from others that were using SLs (including mine), and brought the price right back up again. I was right from the beginning. And the SL cost me my position, which would be in profit again...

TAH, when this happened, no need to get mad.
As market prices aligned to your original opinion, re-evaluate the situation, just see if this is a new opportunity to re-enter as it reached your previous EP price.
This type of re-entries could be more profitable.
  • #25,810
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:46pm Aug 31, 2011 8:46pm
Quoting traderathome
EJ:

Entered short, EP= 110.38. I have been waiting for price to come up to the 89 sma line, which it sometimes does in the asian session if there is likelyhood of an opposite move later.

After entry, price continued on up, about 5 pips higher than I estimated. But the kicker is how fast the Market dropped the price after it was "finished" up there!

I intend to move the SL lower, after things settle out. Meanwhile, if volatility causes price to pass 110.45, I'll likely raise the SL to just above FE (a) and leave it there until, hopefully,...
EJ:

In concert with posting my comments on the sudden rise in EJ and UJ, I had moved SL above range high for day. Glad I did. EJ came with another spurt drive up. I entered short SC near the top of yesterday range, EP= 110.83. So I have two entries short on this pair now. I have replaced the FE study using broader TF, and selected the 127% level shown, about 250 pips below. It is tentative. I'll see what happens and maybe zero in on a closer target later.
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  • #25,811
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:54pm Aug 31, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting traderathome
EJ and UJ Market Comment:

Both just had a rapid rise in price. UJ even about reached the range high for the day. EJ rise fell short about 60 pips from the range high for the day. The thing is, the trades were heaviest at the higher prices. So, this looks like another drive up to high prices to do most of the trading there, i.e., shorting/selling. I don't yet find any "news" that would otherwise explain a rapid rise on light volume followed by heavier trading at the higher prices, so this might be early posturing in the asian market for...

And so it continues, TAH. News is but a catylst that speeds up the reaction that the market is already going to have. if the market has news it will use it, but if there is no news, it does not matter, because the market is going to do what the market is going to do. You do not need an explanation. There is usually none anyway. The irony in all of this is that you are convinced that there is Big Boy manipulation but it is you who are being manipulated by the media. You are convinced that news offers rational explanations. It does not.

And in the end, TAH, the Big Boys are not day trading the EJ and trying to mark it up and mark it down a few dozens of pips one way or the other. The Big Boys take positions based upon daily and weekly movements and then stick with them, not for days and weeks but for months! That is why they are the Big Boys and day traders are mere pikers.

It is Support and Resistance, TAH. Not News. Not Big Boys. Not you hoping to be interpreting Volume action in your favor with fingers crossed. Support is where buyers overwhelm sellers. Resistance is where sellers overwhelm buyers. Get yourself on the right side, TAH. Follow price and what it is telling you rather than sifting through google searches for News that tells you nothing about what price is going to do next.

Here is the only explantion you need: Earlier today, price broke down through a short term Support level. Upon retesting that level as resistance, no sellers were found. Thus price continued to upward to test the next resistance level. Where is price heading next? Who knows?

If this level holds, you may get your decline. If this level fails to hold, there is an open gap from early July that has not yet filled - that's about 300-400 pips higher. How much are you willing to risk, TAH?

When I see the way you trade and the way you throw caution to the wind and the steep, steep drawdowns you are willing to sit through, I have to wonder if you are ever trading real dough or is this all a demo game for you? And if you are trading real dough, you must be trading micro lots for a dime/pip, otherwise how can you stand to sit through these moves against you, piling loser upon loser waiting for luck to bail you out yet again?

I mean, I trade real money and I do not trade an excessively large size, and the thought of doing what you are doing and risking such large sums and then hoping for a bailout makes my hands shake.

If you are trading real dough, TAH, you will eventually get burned beyond recovery trading as you do. You need discipline, and you have none. And you have no respect for risk. Indeed, you utterly disregard it. It is a dangerous game you play TAH. I beg you to stop playing it publically here and instead only post when you are truly doing SonicR analysis. Please, for the love of God, please. We do not need your commentary on the news. We do not need you to try to find 27 trades per day. Your goal at this point, three years into this thread, should be to help other Sonikers find the three or four really choice trades each week.

I know you can do this if you can only discipline yourself to follow Sonic's system.

-DD
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  • #25,812
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:57pm Aug 31, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting traderathome
EJ and UJ Market Comment:

Both just had a rapid rise in price. UJ even about reached the range high for the day. EJ rise fell short about 60 pips from the range high for the day. The thing is, the trades were heaviest at the higher prices. So, this looks like another drive up to high prices to do most of the trading there, i.e., shorting/selling. I don't yet find any "news" that would otherwise explain a rapid rise on light volume followed by heavier trading at the higher prices, so this might be early posturing in the asian market for a drop...
There were Red news during this time.
AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
AUD Retail Sales m/m

This type of Red news even though not for JPY directly, as it is AUD and there are no other news around, early AUD news do affect cross rates such as JPY.
  • #25,813
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:57pm Aug 31, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting traderathome
EJ:

In concert with posting my comments on the sudden rise in EJ and UJ, I had moved SL above range high for day...


oh TAH, what are we going to do with you?
  • #25,814
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:58pm Aug 31, 2011 8:58pm
Quoting traderathome
If your range lines are on the chart, but off the screen, then scroll your chart down. Squeeze it to be shorter. Put cursor in right margin. Right click and hold, while you drag the cursor lower in the margin.

Hope this helps.
geeez! thanks tah i didnt thought that was that easy....thanks alot sir
  • #25,815
  • Aug 31, 2011 9:06pm Aug 31, 2011 9:06pm
Here is my second of Two Profitable trade set-up using the Sonic R System
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  • #25,816
  • Aug 31, 2011 9:07pm Aug 31, 2011 9:07pm
Quoting imnotapro
Here is my second of Two Profitable trade set-up using the Sonic R System
the trade has since covered spread and is in profit
  • #25,817
  • Aug 31, 2011 9:14pm Aug 31, 2011 9:14pm
Quoting ddaytrader
And so it continues, TAH. News is but a catylst that speeds up the reaction that the market is already going to have. if the market has news it will use it, but if there is no news, it does not matter, because the market is going to do what the market is going to do. You do not need an explanation. There is usually none anyway. The irony in all of this is that you are convinced that there is Big Boy manipulation but it is you who are being manipulated by the media. You are convinced that news offers rational explanations. It does not.

And in...
ddaytrader, it is not just support and resistance. It is trading concerns. S&R is just areas on a scale, without power to move price. People, trading concerns to be precise, move price. And they do so with motive. That would be profit. Sometimes they need the price higher to get out of bad shorts, or to make profit on longs they have, or to take advantage of a lack of "players" to hike the price while it is easy to do so, so they can short at higher prices because they know full well the price is going to be tanked later! "They" know more than you or I. "They" move the market. "They" have the money to do it. "They" have the willingness and cunning to do it when it suits their purpose.

"They" just drove the price up. Shorts with SLs become "theirs". Pending long orders were triggered, and are now getting stopped out too, which increases liquidity for "them" to add even more shorts! This is not a game! This is serious business. And it is moves like this that enable the trading conerns in the market to make big profits.
  • #25,818
  • Aug 31, 2011 9:15pm Aug 31, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting ddaytrader


oh TAH, what are we going to do with you?

I just have to laugh at this one.
  • #25,819
  • Edited 9:43pm Aug 31, 2011 9:23pm | Edited 9:43pm
Quoting foxybunny
I just have to laugh at this one.
foxybunny, laugh all you want. I am already in profit. And this is even more looking like it is going to be tanked. Some people trade on fundamentals, others on technicals, some on both. But many fail to accept the psycology in trading. Sometimes you have to get past the S&Rs, TLs, consolidation zones, etc, and SEE WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING BEFORE YOUR VERY EYES.

No EUR news. No JPY news. And a sudden spike up and back. Oh, I guess it is just some farmer decided to suddenly buy some, in increments, and that made the price slide up. Ha! And then his neighbor decided to sell some, in increments, and that made the price come back down. Ha! Or, maybe the S&R lines jumped off the chart and started pushing order buttons!.....first one way, then the other way!

Nope, one or more trading concerns drove the price by settling the orders imbalance at every level up to where they wanted to take the price. In the process shorts with SLs were liquidated, creating market liquidity to get short orders filled. Longs were triggered into the market, creating the opportunity to take the short side of those orders. This is not a game!

Get real, folks.
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  • #25,820
  • Aug 31, 2011 9:34pm Aug 31, 2011 9:34pm
Quoting traderathome
foxybunny, laugh all you want. I am already in profit. And this is even more looking like it is going to be tanked. Some people trade on fundamentals, others on technicals, some on both. But many fail to accept the psycology in trading.

TAH, I am just laughing at DD's comment regarding you moving SL, and that DD is pulling his hair out.

Don't take it hard, I am not laughing at you.

I know that your do have many many many many profitable positions.

Note what you were doing is not scalable to bigger size with less risk which I mentioned previously, this can be scary like what DD mentioned with real bigger dough, and that is your concern.
Stick with your SL and just improve on it.
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