Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#26,401
Aug 28, 2011 6:08am Aug 28, 2011 6:08am

FXMindset
| Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts

Quoting Joey Zazza

Disliked

Dollar Regaining Status as Safe-Haven?

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011...e-haven-champ/

Ignored

Yeap sure

If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your

#26,402
Aug 28, 2011 7:27pm Aug 28, 2011 7:27pm

fatpanda
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: KEEPER OF WALL STREET | 731 Posts

08/2908:23[即时市况]日本首相菅直人：日元大幅上升对企业来说是忧虑
08/2908:22[即时市况]日本首相菅直人：日元走强有好处也有坏处
08/2908:21[即时市况]日本首相菅直人：汇市波动略显单边性

NO long UJ

#26,403
Aug 28, 2011 7:49pm Aug 28, 2011 7:49pm

2+2=4ex
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 6,418 Posts

All stops below 75 are in strike range. Prepare for an attack by an unknown enemy.

#26,404
Aug 28, 2011 8:56pm Aug 28, 2011 8:56pm

Demon Bane
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 110 Posts

75.30/50 should be tested before any upswing....

#26,405
Aug 28, 2011 9:10pm Aug 28, 2011 9:10pm

werido
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: This soldier attacks with C# | 300 Posts

Quoting Demon Bane

Disliked

75.30/50 should be tested before any upswing....

Ignored

why would a swing to huge record lows need to be tested?

#26,406
Aug 28, 2011 9:39pm Aug 28, 2011 9:39pm

2+2=4ex
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 6,418 Posts

Quoting werido

Disliked

why would a swing to huge record lows need to be tested?

Ignored

Cause the big fish eat the little fish; and then move.

#26,407
Aug 28, 2011 9:52pm Aug 28, 2011 9:52pm

werido
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: This soldier attacks with C# | 300 Posts

Quoting 2+2=4ex

Disliked

Cause the big fish eat the little fish; and then move.

Ignored

But that far down makes it too expensive for them to move back up to their original target, and might cause too big a trend downward which would attract more sellers than they can counter.

#26,408
Aug 28, 2011 10:13pm Aug 28, 2011 10:13pm

Demon Bane
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 110 Posts

Quoting werido

Disliked

why would a swing to huge record lows need to be tested?

Ignored

That's my guess....u see, the USDJPY is loitering @ 76.70 + -...
its weak....so I think should created a new low before going up...

#26,409
Edited 11:53pm Aug 28, 2011 10:44pm | Edited 11:53pm

2+2=4ex
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 6,418 Posts

Quoting werido

Disliked

But that far down makes it too expensive for them to move back up to their original target, and might cause too big a trend downward which would attract more sellers than they can counter.

Ignored

Nothing too expensive. They have no limits. They are the big fish. What you said about "attract more sellers", would also work to their advantage... more smaller fish for them to eat.

#26,410
Aug 28, 2011 11:50pm Aug 28, 2011 11:50pm

FXMindset
| Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts

Update USDJPY Daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: UJ Daily.png
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your

#26,411
Aug 28, 2011 11:54pm Aug 28, 2011 11:54pm

fosking
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ | 1,339 Posts

Quoting 2+2=4ex

Disliked

Nothing too expensive. They have no limits. They are the big fish.

Ignored

Spot on!
If the big boys want it lower, they will sell it.
They don't try and pick bottoms.
They will go with the trend until proven wrong, or something fundamentally changes.

#26,412
Aug 29, 2011 12:04am Aug 29, 2011 12:04am

FXMindset
| Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts

I think nowdays people more confident to predict this pairs going lower rather than going up? I am hear ya here

If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your

#26,413
Aug 29, 2011 12:34am Aug 29, 2011 12:34am

2+2=4ex
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 6,418 Posts

Noda is now Prime Minister. I wonder who's going to watch Yen now??

#26,414
Aug 29, 2011 12:50am Aug 29, 2011 12:50am

Halifax
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Liquidity Provider | 655 Posts

So I haven't been keeping up with BoJ and MoF announcements lately, but if they want to intervene in their currency it seems like today would be a good day

Wallstreet in lockdown from the hurricane, and UK holiday = low liquidity and easier to get the currency moving? And Noda is going to be the new prime minister..

So thoughts?

"Don't Panic..."

#26,415
Aug 29, 2011 1:19am Aug 29, 2011 1:19am

AntonA
| Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 20 Posts

Quoting Halifax

Disliked

So I haven't been keeping up with BoJ and MoF announcements lately, but if they want to intervene in their currency it seems like today would be a good day

Wallstreet in lockdown from the hurricane, and UK holiday = low liquidity and easier to get the currency moving? And Noda is going to be the new prime minister..

So thoughts?

Ignored

Last week intervention was all through the news but then Noda said if it were to happen it would have to be a surprise. Usually I would say that it would take a bit of a reshuffle before the new Japanese leader acted decisively, but given his background and clear intentions, I'm watching out for it.

I'll be looking for it. Your reasons, the quietish news week ahead in conjunction with US easing being put off until September at least says to me that conditions are good for some aggressive action.

#26,416
Aug 29, 2011 1:21am Aug 29, 2011 1:21am

JollyBean
| Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 783 Posts

Well, Noda's against the yen rise against the dollar, so now that he's PM, maybe he's going to take some bigger action, possibly giving speculation to a usd/jpy rise.

Else if he changes his stance, and decides to let the yen rise, it could be a trigger for the next usd/jpy selloff.

JMO

#26,417
Aug 29, 2011 1:31am Aug 29, 2011 1:31am

fosking
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ | 1,339 Posts

Quoting FXMindset

Disliked

I think nowdays people more confident to predict this pairs going lower rather than going up? I am hear ya here

Ignored

Here is the open positions for FXCM retail accounts.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 6.91 as nearly 87% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.47 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 6.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.1% lower than yesterday and 1.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 3.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

This is from Friday, but it won't have changed over the weekend.
Retails accounts have been extremely long for months and all the pair has done is fall.

#26,418
Aug 29, 2011 1:52am Aug 29, 2011 1:52am

FXMindset
| Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts

Quoting fosking

Disliked

Here is the open positions for FXCM retail accounts.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 6.91 as nearly 87% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.47 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 6.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.1% lower than yesterday and 1.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 3.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY...

Ignored