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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,381
  • Aug 26, 2011 11:29am Aug 26, 2011 11:29am
Quoting zz_zhang
IMO, if 76.35 hold and dont get broken, we can have yen weakness on this pair since 77.60 has been reach and tested.
I see there were 2 strong support at daily/4H candle between @ 76.30 and @ 76.45

Why 76.35?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,382
  • Aug 26, 2011 11:36am Aug 26, 2011 11:36am
Quoting FXMindset
I see there were 2 strong support at daily/4H candle between @ 76.30 and @ 76.45

Why 76.35?
is a quoted range average support as u mention.
trade safe
  • #26,383
  • Aug 26, 2011 11:36am Aug 26, 2011 11:36am
I am long at 76.55 target open maybe 75 pips will see stop loss at 76.
  • #26,384
  • Aug 26, 2011 12:02pm Aug 26, 2011 12:02pm
hello,@USD-bear. on my chart ,the key points are 75.80, 76.30,(76.45), 77.20, 78.08, 80.00, 85.00.
long @ 76.60.
good luck .and enjoy weekend ,buddy.
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #26,385
  • Aug 26, 2011 12:07pm Aug 26, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting FXMindset
Hemmm,,Honestly I Dont what type I am
Probably Swing,I am Long before when the daily trend breaking upside @ 76.65 with trailing stop 100 pips and I am not take profit yet since it corrected so much and hit my trailing stop and profits for few pips only but am long again now with stop @ 76.40

Scalp is too tired for me,Personally am let my trailing keep running untill it stopped and never targeted the profits or sometimes I am put my stop below and above breaking level

So What type I am ? I dont know honestly,how do you think bro
That is not an answer to my question but nm......
I guess it's near what they call a swing-trader.
I like the hit and run method with small profits 10-50 pips and small protection of appr. 10 pips best in current market circumstances.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,386
  • Aug 26, 2011 12:22pm Aug 26, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting USD-Bear
That is not an answer to my question but nm......
I guess it's near what they call a swing-trader.
I like the hit and run method with small profits 10-50 pips and small protection of appr. 10 pips best in current market circumstances.
Wow Sorry Because English is not my first language,Maybe got the wrong meaning
So How much your risk % Per trade bro
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,387
  • Aug 26, 2011 1:02pm Aug 26, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting FXMindset
Wow Sorry Because English is not my first language,Maybe got the wrong meaning
So How much your risk % Per trade bro
on avg. appr. 1% of my account
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,388
  • Aug 26, 2011 1:12pm Aug 26, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting FXMindset
Expected 76.00 When Is it Bro?Tonight when Ben Speak?
It will be on your doorstep sooner than you think, especially with BOJ not having the intention to intervene. SG's forecast is not correct, imo. I expect 75.00 before the end of September at the very latest.

Societe Generale revises its FX forecasts, and it now expects $USDJPY to fall to 75 in both 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2012, before recovering slightly to 77 by next September. Previously, it saw the pair trading at 77 by the end of the year, before rising to 82 in 12 months' time.
  • #26,389
  • Aug 26, 2011 1:25pm Aug 26, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting geniusztc
hello,@USD-bear. on my chart ,the key points are 75.80, 76.30,(76.45), 77.20, 78.08, 80.00, 85.00.
long @ 76.60.
good luck .and enjoy weekend ,buddy.
thanks geniusztc, looking more at USDX and it's interaction to UJ
Good luck with your long, hope can join you soon next week, something is brewing up around this pair....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,390
  • Aug 26, 2011 1:26pm Aug 26, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting SIgurs
It will be on your doorstep sooner than you think, especially with BOJ not having the intention to intervene. SG's forecast is not correct, imo. I expect 75.00 before the end of September at the very latest.

Societe Generale revises its FX forecasts, and it now expects $USDJPY to fall to 75 in both 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2012, before recovering slightly to 77 by next September. Previously, it saw the pair trading at 77 by the end of the year, before rising to 82 in 12 months' time.
Ya, i have a small buy limit order at 75 with 50 pips stop. will hold for a while if it could trigger in the future.
  • #26,391
  • Aug 26, 2011 1:46pm Aug 26, 2011 1:46pm
Quoting SIgurs
It will be on your doorstep sooner than you think, especially with BOJ not having the intention to intervene. SG's forecast is not correct, imo. I expect 75.00 before the end of September at the very latest.

Societe Generale revises its FX forecasts, and it now expects $USDJPY to fall to 75 in both 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2012, before recovering slightly to 77 by next September. Previously, it saw the pair trading at 77 by the end of the year, before rising to 82 in 12 months' time.
OK,I Though Today Actually I Dont care what kind of high level of analysis said,I am trade based on daily trend,So personally I dont afraid if this pair wants to fall until 60.00 or below.Because I never do any speculation.I Think nobody Will know the future,But Hopefully you are right later
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,392
  • Aug 26, 2011 2:38pm Aug 26, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting USD-Bear
thanks geniusztc, looking more at USDX and it's interaction to UJ
Good luck with your long, hope can join you soon next week, something is brewing up around this pair....
Hello USD Bear,
Now that things have quieted down a bit, would you do this n00b a favor and please explain this relationship and how this, or the DIX, can be used to spot strength or weakness against other currencies?

Thanks and have a great weekend.
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #26,393
  • Edited 4:31pm Aug 26, 2011 4:14pm | Edited 4:31pm
Quoting jabbawest
Hello USD Bear,
Now that things have quieted down a bit, would you do this n00b a favor and please explain this relationship and how this, or the DIX, can be used to spot strength or weakness against other currencies?

Thanks and have a great weekend.
sure jabbawest, as obvious every pair has 2 sides in our case strength/weakness of USD relative to strength weakness of YEN.
If we are looking at PA of UJ and it rises there can be 4 main reasons:
1. USD rises (Yen being equal)
2. YEN drops (USD being equal)
3. Yen rises less then USD
4. Yen drops faster then USD
In our analyses we can benefit to know (fast) what's going on if UJ or for that matter any other USD-pair moves (does a move of USD or YEN or both causing the move).
USDX-Index is the USD weighted against a basket of EUR/YEN/GBP/CHF/CAD an SEK. This averaging out USD moves against 6 other currencies tell us that movements in this index are with high probability related to strength or weakness of the USD.
As movements in the USD is most often the main reason of movement of USD-pairs we can use TA on USDX to predict risks/chances of all USD-pairs including UJ.
It appears to me (and others), a thing I cannot fully explain, that often the predictive value of TA on USDX is greater/clearer then the predictive value of TA on the USD-pairs themselves.
UJ is related somehow different then other USD-pairs in that there are times the pair reacts contrary to what you should expect.
For example UJ rises while USD drops, these are interesting insights because this could provide a predictive timelag.
A lot more interesting relations can be studied, but I must confess it takes some time and effort to get them usable for trades.

Hope this helps a little, have a great weekend too
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,394
  • Aug 26, 2011 6:02pm Aug 26, 2011 6:02pm
Quoting USD-Bear

Hope this helps a little, have a great weekend too
It helps quite a bit.
Question is: Where is the software that utilizes this predictive edge? I'm sure it exist. OR maybe we need a Princeton educated individual to work on a global market conscience tool.
I've been interested in this project since it went online in 1998.
http://noosphere.princeton.edu/
Please see the link on the right regarding the S&P rating downgrade and the helicopter crash in Afghanistan.

Anyway. Thank you for the USDX explanation. I'll continue to lurk and learn, poking my head into a thread every once and a while until I'm more comfortable with with the terminology and I have a few more pips under my belt.
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #26,395
  • Aug 26, 2011 7:47pm Aug 26, 2011 7:47pm
Yada, Yada, Yada, new leadership in Japan will change, so intervention may be on the table again with a new PM (recent statement from Japan, we will do what we want with our currency)...USD current whipping boy of the currencies just the way our banking masters at the FED like it (for now)...total minipulation of the USDJPY pair that's all no anaylisis needed....I honestly believe that the current crisis and issues is all about attempting to move the world to one currency for better control over the global markets..conspiracy, no, reality...
Trading what you see seems to be the only defense....
Never been vouched
  • #26,396
  • Aug 26, 2011 8:14pm Aug 26, 2011 8:14pm

A step back in the currency time machine...interesting read, verbiage sounds familiar..what's interesting is the price of the Yen, however they manage to survive...(the US currency was trading at about Y85.35)

Japan’s PM warns of more action on yen

By Mure Dickie in Tokyo

Published: September 16 2010 08:47 | Last updated: September 16 2010 17:33



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/497c7548-c...#axzz1WBfi9dwj


Reference:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/497c7548-c157-11df-8e03-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1WBg9ehvo
Never been vouched
  • #26,397
  • Aug 27, 2011 7:20am Aug 27, 2011 7:20am
Quoting jabbawest
It helps quite a bit.
Question is: Where is the software that utilizes this predictive edge?
wouldn't wait for that, don't think it can be catched in strict rules, keep watching, studying, relating, no easy way I'm afraid....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,398
  • Aug 27, 2011 10:51am Aug 27, 2011 10:51am
Dollar Regaining Status as Safe-Haven?

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011...e-haven-champ/
  • #26,399
  • Aug 27, 2011 11:08am Aug 27, 2011 11:08am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

Recently, USD/JPY shows high negative correlation with Gold. If Gold continues to move further north, most likely USD/JPY will move further south.


http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=842&h=270
  • #26,400
  • Aug 27, 2011 11:53am Aug 27, 2011 11:53am
Quoting USD-Bear
USDX-Index is the USD weighted against a basket of EUR/YEN/GBP/CHF/CAD an SEK.
may i add something about USD index for my friends here ?
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