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  • #531,661
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:35pm Aug 27, 2011 5:35pm
Quoting iwjw
Are you sure about that, when it comes to e/u?
Compare the prices of Dow/S&P/eurusd May,2nd and now
Dow abt -1600pts (-12%)
S&P abt -190pts (-14%)
EURUSD abt -330pips (-2%)

Things have changed since usd as safe haven is in question
There are many factors all in play at the same time. Which is the safest asset class ?

For now it is definitely Gold.

The BOJ and the G7 openly announced INTERVENTION on the YEN.

If the USD/JPY pair goes below 76.00 and once there is a new Prime Minister in Japan there will be INTERVENTION.

The odds are good they will sell Yen and buy Euro so watch USD/JPY go up and be weaker and EUR/JPY go up and then you can see EUR/USD go up even if the Dow goes down along with Oil.

All the classes are connected however they do not all move in the same directions or by the same percentages because of many factors at play.

We have a race to the bottom for all currencies and as a result Gold and other NON PAPER Asset Classes move up.

Thanks for your comments and observations.
  • #531,662
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:54pm Aug 27, 2011 5:54pm
Quoting SirGoodman
I can tell you 100% why EUR/USD moved up from 1.4325 to 1.4500 where I shorted it and closed before the weekend.
I am well aware of the strong correlation between the Dow and the Euro but as a pure price action trader, WHY the euro (or any other currency) moved this way or that way is really of no interest to me.

Like I said earlier in other posts, fundamentals can only explain (and predict) the past, they cannot give us a single clue about the probable short term direction of a currency.

More importantly, they cannot give you an entry point, an exit target and a stop point.

In fact, you could be right about your fundamental "analysis" but still lose 800 pips or more in the meantime, while waiting for the market to move in the "right" direction.

Euro at 1.4200 by next week you said? Sure, anything is possible, but right now I do not see any compelling reason to short the EUR/USD.
  • #531,663
  • Aug 27, 2011 10:40pm Aug 27, 2011 10:40pm
The other day Warren Buffet invested 5 Billion into BOA.

That seems positive and the markets taught so however those in the know which does not necessarily include the spinners on CNBC and elsewhere did not want to understand the following information.

Have a look at this;

Here’s Why Bank Of America’s Stock Is Collapsing Again

Here are some of the things that the Bank of America observers think should or will be subtracted from the bank’s $222 billion of book value:
* $15-$20 billion in Increased mortgage-litigation reserves….
* Some percentage of $80 billion of “second mortgages.” …
* Some percentage of $47 billion in commercial real estate loans….
* A healthy percentage of $78 billion of “goodwill.” Bank of America built itself by acquisition. “Goodwill” is what’s left over when management overpays for something….
* Untold amounts of exposure to collapsing European banks and sovereign debt…
So, taking some back of the envelope numbers, it looks as though we could easily come up with, say, $100-$200 billion in write-offs and exposures to “clean up” Bank of America’s balance sheet.
A $100-$200 billion hit to Bank of America’s $222 billion of equity capital, needless to say, would do some serious damage. Specifically, it would force the company to raise about the same amount to restore its capital ratios. [read full report]

In related news, Mortgage Payments One Month Late Jump as Economy Weakens and Home Sales Are Falling: Mortgage purchase applications plummeting to lows.


This says to me that BOA has big problems along with the other large banks in the USA and elsewhere.

My conclusion is that the Dow is ready to come back below 10,000 in the near future led by the banks.

I definitely am not a Bull with regard to the equity markets. Wait until September 20 and 21ST when Benny will show us what is in his bag.

Next week is ISM, ADP and NFP on Friday.

Watch what a number under 50,000 will do to the markets.

Maybe it will not happen however if it does EUR/USD will be nearer to 1.4200 than 1.4500

That is how understanding everything going on gives you a better view.

This information is NOT in the market. Then again keep in mind August was a bad month starting on August 2, 2011.

I am ready for all scenario's

The weather in New York will NOT help the markets on Monday.

Deadlock in the congress. The debt ceiling going up. Gold going up. The banks in Europe in trouble.

That's the way that I see it and I am sticking to my view and anything that works for other traders is good.
  • #531,664
  • Aug 27, 2011 11:08pm Aug 27, 2011 11:08pm
Quoting SirGoodman
Maybe it will not happen however if it does EUR/USD will be nearer to 1.4200 than 1.4500
Any big drops in E/U will have more to do with euro weakness than with dollar strength. Interbank, carry trade capital flows dwarf the stock market capital flows on a daily basis: the stock markets do not lead the currencies.

I bought BAC at $47+ and have averaged down to around $12 and I expect to get out in profit. Obviously, that was not my best stock trade.....but not my worst either....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #531,665
  • Edited 1:21am Aug 28, 2011 12:44am | Edited 1:21am
There are many posts this weekend regarding the bull is real or not , yes this week is the perfect to think about as the bull actually entered the nose bullying after lots of bull chaos. lets continue with more informations from all sides . WE NEED ALL FUNDAMENTALISTS TO SQUEEZ THE WHOLE WORLD INTO A FEW CONSOLING WORDS ABOUT TO CONCLUDE .

For me , still holding my previous views till satisfaction .some lattest conclusion as such in another reply post:APPROACH -ABVOIDANCE CONFLICT TO HANDLE WITH CARE oneway.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=311737
Quoting DragonFire
what a whip; USD whipping has just begun; EUR is zooming towards 1.5000 and XAU towards 2500...the journey has just started...
Quoting fontu
still not , time will tell it . but the whipshaw /range has dramatically increased , inner one 1.4517-1.4274/58, outer 1.4537/78/4699 - 1.4179/4103/4023/3971. lets see .how turmoils works next . gold expecting correction continues next towards limits 1630+ & 1577+ and 1558+ as far it can down before up & now upside 1858 may stop .
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=311755
Quoting fontu
Merkel perhaps admitting the truth this time , none ready yet to jump & market should not too as trying scammers only perhaps not real economy now a days .so stay sick till recover & able walk without help. good indication .
who is buying euro if they do not want sell ? anybody doing in market actually with full consent to do ( as in when they wake up not when sleep friday night, stealing thRough backdoor or stabbing from back ) or abide otherwise may crash in a momment.


another nice news post : a pseudorandon walk
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...49#post4908012
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #531,666
  • Aug 28, 2011 1:22am Aug 28, 2011 1:22am
Quoting Mr Breakout
Well, here are the two main reasons why I believe the Friday euro move was not a fake:

1: The (up) move was quick, strong, with virtually no pullback. This is not one of those "fake" moves that quickly run out of steam, immediately reverse direction and trap the traders.

2: More importantly, the euro closed near the high of the day, with almost zero profit taking activity, as you can see on the chart. That means the long traders were not afraid to let their long positions open over the weekend and that is indeed a strong commitment and a powerful...
Always interesting to read your posts, your not just like those annoying guys who just post smilies and ROFL, you have actually something to say. Can't belive you have only 6 vouches, would vouch you if i only could

Good luck
  • #531,667
  • Aug 28, 2011 1:32am Aug 28, 2011 1:32am
Brit Holiday monday NY getting smashed, monday open, possible big asia play , wary of yoda BOJ, gap direction critcal, would expect big gap if they exist.
All pairs i watch at critical levels, I think normal Monday dullness, this time will be account killer, Monday Tuesday only for brave, possible major move up or down, either way you get it wrong, no sl etc you history, suggest watch and wait retest of present levels, whilst sit on hands
EU 4hr although strong bull drive, pierce UTL of bull flag, but yet to make a new high, not far but not yet, if last top hold, rejection will be strong double top, retest of UTL of flag fail, good rr for me from there, these levels have been violent rejections lately, is dangerous levels, if make new high, retest utl hold, bears hibernate I back to bloody scalp
4517 last high 4535 possible last stand if they go
But I think "bears" still ready to play, and play mean

My 2 cents
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #531,668
  • Aug 28, 2011 2:48am Aug 28, 2011 2:48am
to much if about this pair , i understand people like to sell high but fonds like to sell even higher & this heavy accumulation without real bear distribution move makes me wonder will we see 1.5 again or even higher...effect of downgrade still to be seen , personaly i think qe was late ,in this situation with downgrade doing nothing is my opinion best move to let things settle on own pace & still to have valid ace in hand ....
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  • #531,669
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:52am Aug 28, 2011 4:52am
In my point of view, bear starting in progress in the next weekend, and even in the next month.
Technical make the Reversal from June, 2008.
I hope we are trading follow the next trend.

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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #531,670
  • Aug 28, 2011 5:22am Aug 28, 2011 5:22am
will initiate fresh long @ 4430-20 if it reaches thereabout believing current up move has two more legs on upside, price coverage is little though.
will be a net seller at 4573.
  • #531,671
  • Aug 28, 2011 5:51am Aug 28, 2011 5:51am
Quoting SirGoodman
The other day Warren Buffet invested 5 Billion into BOA.

That seems positive and the markets taught so however those in the know which does not necessarily include the spinners on CNBC and elsewhere did not want to understand the following information.
Stick to the fundie and you'll have a lot to talk about... of course after the moves already materialize

Market is solely supply and demand brotha
  • #531,672
  • Aug 28, 2011 6:00am Aug 28, 2011 6:00am
So i have been make some good pips on the eur/chf lately,
Till last Friday shit hit the fan as they call it.
Does anyone know what to expect this up coming week?


Thanks, Mike
  • #531,673
  • Aug 28, 2011 6:04am Aug 28, 2011 6:04am
Quoting trade.yog
will initiate fresh long @ 4430-20 if it reaches thereabout believing current up move has two more legs on upside, price coverage is little though.
will be a net seller at 4573.
I have a bias on the downside on EUR/USD however my mind is open to it going either way. I find Sunday is usually not a good day to trade or be in the market. I observe the market action between 12:00 AM EST and 2:00 when Europe gets ready to open.

Here in summary form from Action Forex are some of the present issues for this week.

Markets Stayed in Range as Bernanke Delayed Focus to Sept FOMC Meeting

Markets were generally quiet before Bernanke's highly anticipated speech in Jackson Hole symposium, except that gold jumped to record high above 1900 then dropped to 1705 on a sharp pullback. And, after the speech, which Bernanke provided no signal of QE3, markets went wide from initial risk-off and reversed to risk-on. But after all, the activities, most instruments stayed in recent ranges. DOW is bounded inside 10604/11529, Crude oil inside 75.71/89.00, 10 year yield inside 1.978/2.29, dollar index inside 74.18/75.38. Risk sentiments would likely remain steady this week as investors await the next key event of US non-farm payroll.
Full Report Here...

This week there is market moving news such as ADP on Wednesday and ISM on Thursday. This could be a very important one either way since it is in the 50 range now. Then the Big Daddy or Mommy on Friday at 8:30 with NFP.

The problems with the PIIGS is there and anything can happen.

It is better to just be aware and ready for anything. On the technical side knowing where strong support and resistance rests is important.

You can see things clearer when you are in cash waiting for a trade opportunity.

Not making any trades if there are none that give you an edge of sorts is also an opportunity to see things in a different way. Hope will not make you money.

A clear head and common sense works most of the time.

Good trading this week and be ready for anything.
  • #531,674
  • Aug 28, 2011 6:16am Aug 28, 2011 6:16am
Quoting duyk20
Stick to the fundie and you'll have a lot to talk about... of course after the moves already materialize

Market is solely supply and demand brotha
I include fundamentals as more than just news coming out. Let us look at ISM coming up on Thursday.

Can you tell me in advance which way the markets will go if the number is 47 or 53 ?

The fundamentals create the supply and demand. If you do not think about it or are aware of it you are not in a good position to react when it happens.

Let us say for this example that the ISM is 47 on Thursday. Most people when they saw it would automatically assume the equity markets would go down and it might on the initial reaction.

However I would not be surprised to see the markets go up as well.

Why ? Since we all know that the FED put on their decision to September 20, 2011 and September 21, 2011 some might think that bad number will guarantee QE3.

This actually happened last week with one of the bad releases.

Fundamentals is much more than just a news release.

Another Fundamental is possible INTERVENTION by the New BOJ Prime Minister when he is elected and USD/JPY tests 76.00

If you were not aware of this you would be saying why did USD/JPY go to 78.00 in 1 hour.

Why did EUR/JPY go up 150 PIPS or so.

I hope you understand my point of view that works for me.

That does not mean it will work for you. We all need to use what works for us and our time to invest in trading forex.

Good trading this week.
  • #531,675
  • Aug 28, 2011 6:17am Aug 28, 2011 6:17am
I do not normally paste quotes but this one sums up my thoughts


"Regarding the week ahead, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, commented, "The return of full market volume during early September may trigger some wild movements in the cross, although I would expect the 1.40/1.45 range to hold. Neither Euro nor Dollar, will gather enough strength to define a trend anytime soon"."

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...8-2b10cc2f365b

btw, Monday is bank holiday in UK
  • #531,676
  • Aug 28, 2011 6:21am Aug 28, 2011 6:21am
The waters are coming in and there might be no power on Monday when the water hits the underground power lines in New York.

We will watch wait and hope for the best while Mother Nature is at work.
  • #531,677
  • Aug 28, 2011 7:18am Aug 28, 2011 7:18am
Quoting GoldMan.
Always interesting to read your posts, your not just like those annoying guys who just post smilies and ROFL, you have actually something to say. Can't belive you have only 6 vouches, would vouch you if i only could

Good luck
If I can add, the COT report turned bearish for the USD. ROFL.
  • #531,678
  • Aug 28, 2011 7:29am Aug 28, 2011 7:29am
As this week begins I'm favoring more upside. Mid-week anything could happen: we may see a return to the previous range, or a continuation.

4500 is as good as breached
4577 1st target (~70% chance to be met)
4630 2nd target and highest probability reversal zone (in case reversal plays out, this week's downside should be capped somewhere above 4350)
4695 3rd target (should this target be met I'll be on the watch for the possibility of a 4940 retest on the near future).
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #531,679
  • Aug 28, 2011 7:32am Aug 28, 2011 7:32am
This must be watched in the coming week. It is very very serious.

Insurance on the debt of several major European banks has now hit historic levels, higher even than those recorded during financial crisis caused by the US financial group's implosion nearly three years ago.


Credit default swaps on the bonds of Royal Bank of Scotland, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and Intesa Sanpaolo, among others, flashed warning signals on Wednesday. Credit default swaps (CDS) on RBS were trading at 343.54 basis points, meaning the annual cost to insure £10m of the state-backed lender's bonds against default is now £343,540.

The cost of insuring RBS bonds is now higher than before the taxpayer was forced to step in and rescue the bank in October 2008, and shows the recent dramatic downturn in sentiment among credit investors towards banks.


"The problem is a shortage of liquidity – that is what is causing the problems with the banks. It feels exactly as it felt in 2008," said one senior London-based bank executive.


"I think we are heading for a market shock in September or October that will match anything we have ever seen before," said a senior credit banker at a major European bank.

This is surely one to watch. Being aware is the key to trading.
  • #531,680
  • Aug 28, 2011 7:54am Aug 28, 2011 7:54am
i think that market really need trend to folow i see most of pepole on the form didn't know trend so i prefere to leave the market say it's trend
from my point of view i think that i am going short from 1.4500
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