EUR/USD’s Loud Noise Causing Whiplash within the 1.4350-1.4450 Range; Breaking to the Upside | Forex Factory

EUR/USD’s Loud Noise Causing Whiplash within the 1.4350-1.4450 Range; Breaking to the Upside | Forex Factory

EUR/USD’s Loud Noise Causing Whiplash within the 1.4350-1.4450 Range; Breaking to the Upside

From fxtimes.com

UDPATE: As I was wrapping up this article, the market is breaking above 1.4450. So, let’s anticipate the rally towards the 1.45-1.4517 high and if we can close above that today. Still, be careful of volatile action below 1.4517. EUR/USD’s recent volatility has been high, but contained within the ranging context. If is watching soup boil through a transparent pressure cooker. The lid is at 1.4450 right now, and the fire is under 1.4350. If you were trading this range in the very short-term, you probably got whiplashed. Your broker might not let you enter the price you wanted or exit quick enough at the price you ... (full story)

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Aug 26, 2011 4:00pm

Quoting DragonFire

Disliked

...so long as EUR is above 1.4200 the bull is on track...

Ignored

You are almost right. The pivot is actually at 1.4250. I would look for a daily close below that to call it bearish.

However, remember that there is very strong resistance at 1.4500/50 area with several failed breakouts since beginning of July. Therefore I wouldn't be calling a bull until we see a daily close above that region.

Till then, we are stuck in a range. 1.4250 to 1.4550 and I had lots of fun shorting all the peeks and buying some of the dips on purely technical trades.

Aug 27, 2011 1:05am — Edited

Quoting DragonFire

Disliked

what a whip; USD whipping has just begun; EUR is zooming towards 1.5000 and XAU towards 2500...the journey has just started...

Ignored

still not , time will tell it .

but the whipshaw /range has dramatically increased , inner one 1.4517-1.4274/58, outer 1.4537/78/4699 - 1.4179/4103/4023/3971.

lets see .how turmoils works next .

gold expecting correction continues next towards limits 1630+ & 1577+ and 1558+ as far it can down before up & now upside 1858 may stop .

Aug 27, 2011 5:17pm

I just read Trichet's speech in it's entirety and nothing in it would cause me to panic. However, nothing he has ever said has caused me to panic either and yet... many others have.

I believe that what he doesn't say is alot more important than what he does say.

Aug 27, 2011 8:47am

Clockwork, DF, Euro haters,

I am really struggling with this.

Technically, looking at the day or faster time frames tells you what we all know -- that for the last 2-3 months the Euro has been volatile and trading within a range. The month time frame for the last 4 years also shows a currency that is very volatile and trading within a different range.

The week time frame is different. It shows an almost picture perfect bull flag readying for a breakout. And this bull flag is an elliot wave 4. So technically, a prediction of 1.6 or even 1.7 is reasonable.

Basic fundamental analysis supports this. Most economic indicators in the US and Euro are about the same. However US monetary policy is far more expansive than European monetary policy. All things being equal, this should drive the Euro up.

Also, with Japanese and Swiss monetary policies, the euro is now a "safe" haven from the USD. It sounds bizarre to say it, but there it is.

But the Euro is a good news currency and I can see nothing but bad news on the horizon.

We all know that Joe Public is cutting back. And that the US government is cutting back (well, sort of). And manufacturers are in a panic. So basically, all three sectors of the US economy are going to spend less simultaneously. Which means a recession is all but certain.

So bad news out of the US. Which is bad for the Euro.

And Europe is stuck. The politicians and bankers cant move forward without a mandate from the people. But they are completely unwilling to move back either. So something is going to have to break. Which mean an escalation of bad news until something breaks.

So worse news from Europe which is also bad for the Euro.

Aug 27, 2011 3:13pm

Primate -- Trichet is amazing. He can come out with good news and the Euro collapses.

I don't think it is a problem with what he says. I can't recollect him saying any of the plain dumb and inflammatory comments that a number of other EU leaders say with some frequency. He seems to have some sort of supernatural ability to spook markets. I wouldn't believe it except I have seen it (multiple times) for myself.

Aug 26, 2011 2:27pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

its funny to see these definate projections. i dont know where price is going to be but i know everytime price tics up above average someone post a comment like yours, and when price tics down above average someone post the opposite, and neither party post what a loser they are when the opposite happens.

Ignored

Should not be anything funny because we have bears and bulls..what is good for bears is bad for bulls...buyers and sellers...so for each day..we have one sucker at one side and one winner at the other side...it is a tussle..

Aug 26, 2011 2:32pm

so far, I see silver lining in XAU and EUR..USD is going to get some whipping...XAU will see 2000 next Friday and EUR on the way to 1.5000..i may be wrong but I have been right many times so I put my money on it...so long as EUR is above 1.4200 the bull is on track...

Aug 27, 2011 10:43am

EUR is going to thrash USD unless something mysterious happens on Monday but unlikely, EU officials are comfortable with strong EUR while US officials are confused as ever..and don't know which side is North or South..next week is going to be EUR and XAU best week ever...I will turn bear with EUR/USD goes below 1.4200 and XAU below 1654....

Aug 27, 2011 10:54am

Quoting Flynchenberg

Disliked

Do You realise that if they find next week in Athens that Greeks did not met fiscal targets (and they did not),there might be no EURO by the end of year?
Ok let's keep it usa way, optimistic way, 1.3000 MINIMUM by the year end....

Ignored

,

Flynchenberg,
With all PIIGS on loose EUR could have been below 1.3000..but it didn't happen ..so I don't think from here nothing could be worst than what we have already know about the PIIGS...it could get better from here...getting better means EUR climbing on the back of USD.. the first thing to do when Asian market opens is buy a lot of EUR and XAU ..but cover for the downside..nothing is a sure best..but probability of 90% up and up..nothing goes in straight line so on Wednesday USD may try to gain some lost grounds but 50 pips the max...the babies (XAU and EUR) are about to fly... another better deal EUR/CHF...straight to 1.2500 plus...SNB is comfortable with range--1.3000 to 1.3500..

Aug 28, 2011 11:10am

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

I just read Trichet's speech in it's entirety and nothing in it would cause me to panic. However, nothing he has ever said has caused me to panic either and yet... many others have.

I believe that what he doesn't say is alot more important than what he does say.

Ignored

PipTrapper,
I do agree, Trichet is for strong EUR so anything he says is going to be EUR positive, no dovish stand like US Fed, Trichet is man with courage and he sticks to his gun even though some PIIGS are flattening, he has mandate for strong EUR..so there goes EUR again to stratosphere..I just feel sorry for USD..but ooch, who cares if you bet on EUR and make some pips on the back of USD...EUR on the way to 1.5000...the breakout already occurred, nothing on the way to stop it now..and I don't think China(BOC) will sell EUR to boost USD...

Aug 27, 2011 2:38pm

@AaronWard, normally you could bet that an EU official would say something crass; and that would stimulate panic, risk aversion, and headless chicken racing. Certainly Merkel and Sarkozy have excelled at placing dumb comments in the recent past. However one would hope that Trichet would have a similar tack to Bernanke and Mervyn King, the central bank heads are not playing politics and they also realise that everything they say is examined for a sniff of anything that might deviate from their previous direction or advice. It would just take somebody to ask the right question......

Aug 26, 2011 1:12pm

Anything is possible. But with trichet testifying on the debt crisis on Monday...

Aug 27, 2011 10:08am

Yeiah, and the Euro has something better than QE to devalue its currency -- Trichet. Who speaks today at Jackson Hole, and then testifies on Monday on the EU debt crisis.

Aug 26, 2011 11:27am

what a whip; USD whipping has just begun; EUR is zooming towards 1.5000 and XAU towards 2500...the journey has just started...

Aug 27, 2011 3:34pm

...well he has just drawn parallels between the EU and US economic dispersions. Let's see what effect that has!

Aug 27, 2011 7:36am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

WTF..next week EUR will towards 1.47-1.49 ??? u think all US and EU debt crisis already solved ???

Ignored

Only a fool wouldn't think it can't happen. The currency markets have absolutely nothing to do with reality. Hell, even money isn't real.

Aug 27, 2011 7:38am

Quoting DragonFire

Disliked

so far, I see silver lining in XAU and EUR..USD is going to get some whipping...XAU will see 2000 next Friday and EUR on the way to 1.5000..i may be wrong but I have been right many times so I put my money on it...so long as EUR is above 1.4200 the bull is on track...

Ignored

Agreed. If we can close above 1.45, we are going higher. Don't trust it, but it seems to be the case......of course, I don't have to believe it - just be on the right side of the trade is all. Besides, when I close out my trade, it comes back as USD - so I don't care what happens to the EUR in the end.

Aug 27, 2011 9:05am

Do You realise that if they find next week in Athens that Greeks did not met fiscal targets (and they did not),there might be no EURO by the end of year?
Ok let's keep it usa way, optimistic way, 1.3000 MINIMUM by the year end....

Aug 26, 2011 12:31pm

lol -

Aug 26, 2011 1:13pm

Finally, a break out of the triangle, upward. That's what we were waiting for.

Trader#475D

Aug 26, 2011 1:23pm

EUR is witnessing momentum pressure upward because of Fed's optimism and increasing risk apetite ... long term EURUSD will see USD stronger due to risk aversion originating from very bad news on USD debt the following weeks/months .... just remember that

Aug 26, 2011 1:28pm

Don't forget the Non-Farm Payroll...EUR/USD does have a bullish stance, but it feels like there will still be a lot of choppiness ahead next week. - Fan

Trader#69BC

Aug 26, 2011 1:48pm

Quoting DragonFire

Disliked

what a whip; USD whipping has just begun; EUR is zooming towards 1.5000 and XAU towards 2500...the journey has just started...

Ignored

its funny to see these definate projections. i dont know where price is going to be but i know everytime price tics up above average someone post a comment like yours, and when price tics down above average someone post the opposite, and neither party post what a loser they are when the opposite happens.

Aug 27, 2011 9:07am

Fundamentals is all that matters. All TA works only in exceptionary condions in fundies.

Trader#B6CF

Sep 2, 2011 6:54pm

As I said before, Risk aversion is playing its role now... We have seen record lows on US bonds yields .... It would be very interesting to watch the market the coming months... We are witnessing history

Trader#69BC

Sep 2, 2011 10:09pm

Quoting DragonFire

Disliked

so far, I see silver lining in XAU and EUR..USD is going to get some whipping...XAU will see 2000 next Friday and EUR on the way to 1.5000..i may be wrong but I have been right many times so I put my money on it...so long as EUR is above 1.4200 the bull is on track...

Ignored

today is why its so funny, you say its going to the moon while its rising (a great but lonley time to sell) and when its down....you will short or exit your long. If you cant buy when nobody else is willing to buy or if you cant sell when nobody else is willing to sell, you will always be a trade shy of a profitable year.

Trader#E0FB

Sep 6, 2011 10:51am

XAU go to 2500? while EUR GOES UP, too? so you are basically saying people forgot about what's going on with europe and just start buying europe again.... and some how when that happens, people also buys gold.....As of today, EUR is around 1.40, and GOLD is almost at its all TIME HIGH, so let's say that global recession hits, look EUR below 1.4, and gold goes above 2000, if recession doesn't hits, we will see big drop in gold and EUR goes up. I am also talking about time frame within half year.

Trader#BB1F

Aug 26, 2011 12:29pm

to be fair, I'd say dragonfire could be on to something... next week the bulls will push the euro towards 1.47-1.49

Trader#0D22

Aug 26, 2011 12:39pm

WTF..next week EUR will towards 1.47-1.49 ??? u think all US and EU debt crisis already solved ???

Trader#7AA8

Aug 26, 2011 1:17pm

we will see EUR/USD at 1.4270 by the end of next week.

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Aug 26, 2011 11:10am
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fxtimes

Technical Analysis

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