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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #286,961
  • Aug 20, 2011 3:16am Aug 20, 2011 3:16am
Yeah reviewing GU D1 charts with a strong reversal stick there sitting at a strong TL, and AMR almost out, upside seems to be capped for now on, the R/R is shifting for the downside, let's see if we can print 6200 next week. updated my thread with D1 chart with cycle analysis and Monday high/low NN forecasts. Have a good weekend guys!
  • #286,962
  • Aug 20, 2011 4:17am Aug 20, 2011 4:17am
Quoting iqyu5an
For FF, especially for this forum.

Even this Friday is my bad day ( The enemy change my leverage ...wider spread bla bla bla...and bla ... like or dislike i have to close all of my position ( which is still negative ) ), but thank God i still can keep my 485.1 pip this week ( 11 win and 2 loss ) in safe place from my enemy and thank also for all discussion, sharing etc etc...that we made.

Happy Weekend

Rgds, Iqyu
Very nice result for sure!
  • #286,963
  • Aug 20, 2011 5:08am Aug 20, 2011 5:08am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello,
i would like to post this.

im working on my strategy since months after took some big loss last year.
what happens is that i need the much more things in my favour to pick a position. before going into market i always check my m1. doesn't matter if market is in a sup/res/trend etc... i want to see this.

i must underline that 'i know' () GU in the whole picture (daily, h4, weekly etc...) so my m1 chart is complete with whole sup/res, patterns or every shit needed [u]to [i][b]understand where price is mainly...
hi bbking,
seems this wedge you pointed breaking down...
got any opinions?
thanks
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  • #286,964
  • Aug 20, 2011 5:10am Aug 20, 2011 5:10am
Quoting Flatfish
4 hourly. Buyers supported at middle bollinger, but notice top band has turned horizontal -this usually provides enough resistence to stop it so watch for a piercing candle there for a great low risk trade.

Still looking at the 4 hr chart you can see how cable has performed technically perfect in respect of the Bollinger bands. When I first started out years ago I was fortunate to meet a bank trader who had been doing it for 17 years. He showed me his secret which was just a 4hr chart and Bollinger bands and all his trades were based on touches of the bands for entry and exits. I remember being really disappointed, as I had hoped for insider secrets on how the Frankie fakeout works and how they trade news etc..
Looking back I reralised that that guy had it tuned in. He had no stress in trading and delivered profits week in week out. For those who have never considered the old bollie bands, perhaps some weekend reading for you. As I said looking back now I can see how he had simplfied trading. You only have to look at an intraday cable chart for Friday to see how much madness we spend looking at on the short timeframes, while the old boys sit and read the newspaper.
Anyway technically cable has now broken the middle band support, so either a rally back up for another touch of the upper band or a touch of the lower band first, where either the slide will continue or it will bounce. With the Bollinger bands turning sideways I would expect some swinging around the middle band next week with touches to the upper and lower bands. Will be looking for entry/reversal candles on the bands as the highest r/r trades this week.
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  • #286,965
  • Aug 20, 2011 5:21am Aug 20, 2011 5:21am
Quoting Flatfish
Still looking at the 4 hr chart you can see how cable has performed technically perfect in respect of the Bollinger bands. When I first started out years ago I was fortunate to meet a bank trader who had been doing it for 17 years. He showed me his secret which was just a 4hr chart and Bollinger bands and all his trades were based on touches of the bands for entry and exits. I remember being really disappointed, as I had hoped for insider secrets on how the Frankie fakeout works and how they trade news etc..
Looking back I reralised that that guy...
Sounds cool, but you do realize that BB actually repaints? That kinda deal ended my journey with indicators ages ago.
  • #286,966
  • Edited 5:56am Aug 20, 2011 5:55am | Edited 5:56am
True they do repaint that whys he only used the 4hr charts. I remember getting home that evening and trading the US session trying to use them on a 1 minute chart to scalp my way rich- it didn't take long before I realised that guy had been yanking my chain. But as I say its only in hindsight and years of pointless new trading stratagies. That I realised that that guy had been taught that by some previous old guy at the bank as the easiest way to be consistent without having a heat attack at 35. If big funds are using those zones as profit or entry targets at least you know you aint going it alone.
  • #286,967
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:06am Aug 20, 2011 6:06am
Fish, for sure, insider knowledge is good, still the deal is that bank traders don't trade their own money, and they use very different SL/TPs compared to us, mear mortals. So just gotta be careful with that anyway.

A better explanation of the recent rally and it coming to a halt are the CALL options levels, clearly 6600 was an area of very heavy call interest, the level was hit and options met strike price before expiry, which is actually today.

Now that the big money cashed out I expect a decent-size correction into the next week. Here's the chart with call levels and august expiration calendar.

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/928/gucallsaug.png
  • #286,968
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:13am Aug 20, 2011 6:13am
Also as seen on GBPI H4, PA met resistance @ TL and S/R zone and the confluence produced a strong reaction.

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/1571/gbpih4.png
  • #286,969
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:14am Aug 20, 2011 6:14am
Where has the 1M Eur/USD history data form year 2001-2011(MT5 data format)
  • #286,970
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:29am Aug 20, 2011 6:29am
Weekly my view still remains the same. All these horizontal converging moving averages are going to force cable into the 1.65-1.59 range and anyone playing the breakouts will face the death of a thousand cuts. A slightly more volitle version of the daily USD/NOK with price contained within weekly horizontal bollie bands for some time yet. Range trading causes more margin calls by your broker than any extend one way move can do, no reason for them change the game when there winning.
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  • #286,971
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:39am Aug 20, 2011 6:39am
The markets definately can take a toll on GU in coming weeks, FTSE edging lower won't be of much help for GU.
  • #286,972
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:46am Aug 20, 2011 6:46am
Absolutley I think cable will see 1.59 before 1.67, and if ever I had got round to figuring out put/ call options I'd probably put that be on, expect its a still a pretty cheap price at the moment.
  • #286,973
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:52am Aug 20, 2011 6:52am
So, another week is over, and this i how i see the situation now.

In daily view, we are in short term up trend. Currently, after failling to breach resistance at 1,65445, i would expect a short correcting move(4h trend line has been broken, also at RSI. Beside stoch is sending sell signals). As we can see from the chart, 38,2 fibo lvl, short term trend line and previous neck line will probably meet in one place, around 1,6300 lvl, and that is the range of correction in my opinion. Also 200 ema should be near, mayby lows of candle will touch it.

From 1,6300 i would expect prices to take a bounce and up trend continuation, which should lead us to break 1,65445 lvl and next ressistance will be at 1,67480.

To sum up - First short, target @ 1,6300
Long from 1,6300, target @ 1,67480

Daily and 4h chart.
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  • #286,974
  • Aug 20, 2011 7:14am Aug 20, 2011 7:14am
Quoting iqyu5an
For FF, especially for this forum.

Even this Friday is my bad day ( The enemy change my leverage ...wider spread bla bla bla...and bla ... like or dislike i have to close all of my position ( which is still negative ) ), but thank God i still can keep my 485.1 pip this week ( 11 win and 2 loss ) in safe place from my enemy and thank also for all discussion, sharing etc etc...that we made.

Happy Weekend

Rgds, Iqyu
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #286,975
  • Aug 20, 2011 7:15am Aug 20, 2011 7:15am
Quoting Flatfish
Still looking at the 4 hr chart you can see how cable has performed technically perfect in respect of the Bollinger bands. When I first started out years ago I was fortunate to meet a bank trader who had been doing it for 17 years. He showed me his secret which was j............................k.
i remember you sayin some days ago if price again near upperd band h4, time for short as band would be horizontal!

interesting
i agree on re paint of bands, not helpful in faster TF
h4 looks like best for that indie
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #286,976
  • Aug 20, 2011 7:19am Aug 20, 2011 7:19am
i noticed a strong bull diverngence in faster TF m1.

attached both m1 n h1 chart.

be patient to short this thing!!!!! unless you are in same position as Navin from 6600.... or at least above 6550

imo... be patient!

i expect some spikes up n down mostly at start of week.

unless we open tomorrow @6400 ......
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #286,977
  • Aug 20, 2011 7:23am Aug 20, 2011 7:23am
I'm still short.

My TP is 1.63457.

No stoploss as I don't use them.
  • #286,978
  • Aug 20, 2011 7:30am Aug 20, 2011 7:30am
must also not forget daily current pattern....
still not confirmed out of neckline, but very important possible call for more than 1.67
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #286,979
  • Aug 20, 2011 7:34am Aug 20, 2011 7:34am
Quoting bluebulluk
I'm still short.

My TP is 1.63457.

No stoploss as I don't use them.
once or the other your account will be killed by this!
always put your stop loss!!!!

there is no reason not to put it!

what if market goes crazy and moves 2000 pips in few minutes? did you ever think about that?!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #286,980
  • Aug 20, 2011 7:40am Aug 20, 2011 7:40am
Quoting Haqu
So, another week is over, and this i how i see the situation now.

In daily view, we are in short term up trend. Currently, after failling to breach resistance at 1,65445, i would expect a short correcting move(4h trend line has been broken, also at RSI. Beside stoch is sending sell signals). As we can see from the chart, 38,2 fibo lvl, short term trend line and previous neck line will probably meet in one place, [b]around 1,6300 lvl, and that is the range of correction in my opinion. Also 200 ema should be near, mayby lows of candle will...
overall i agree with you
i also see a possible move to / near / into 6220 - 6250 area.
see chart below.

would not be the 1st time we see such a strong move up followed by same strong move down.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guh1.gif Size: 36 KB
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