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Where is the EDGE in trading? The most important thing in trading!

  • #621
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:30pm Aug 14, 2011 7:30pm
I stick with the majors....... see no good reason to play with the exotics.....
  • #622
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:37pm Aug 14, 2011 7:37pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
63 currently on FXCM. Only long term traders trade this pair, it is hard enough to make money with just 2 pip spread pairs.
For scalping outside the news events its a terrible currency.However i made the most on news trading playing the excotics. When there is intrest rate change or cpi it can move 1000 pip. Spread of 40 or 50 is irrelevant in that case.

On long term trading the correlation beetwen SEK and NOK can be profitable.
  • #623
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:44pm Aug 14, 2011 7:44pm
Quoting tradestar1
I stick with the majors....... see no good reason to play with the exotics.....
Well some traders like the exotics because they sometimes offer good carry-trade opportunities. In 2007 for example, one of the most popular carry trade strategies was to buy TRY/JPY (borrowing Japanese Yen to buy Turkish Lira), when Turkey offered almost the highest interest rate on earth back then .
  • #624
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:48pm Aug 14, 2011 7:48pm
Quoting reres
For scalping outside the news events its a terrible currency.However i made the most on news trading playing the excotics. When there is intrest rate change or cpi it can move 1000 pip. Spread of 40 or 50 is irrelevant in that case.
Yeah, sure, and the 1,000 pip move was of course ALWAYS in your favor.
Oh Reres, Reres, you really done it this time
  • #625
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:48pm Aug 14, 2011 7:48pm
I understand that.... it's just not in my pairs.....
I think the TRY still offers the highest interest rates available.
  • #626
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:55pm Aug 14, 2011 7:55pm
Also with a quick eyeball o the chart it is a pretty good candidate for the monday gap filler.......

I may have to reassess my opinion about this pair.....
  • #627
  • Edited 8:13pm Aug 14, 2011 7:57pm | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting tradestar1
I understand that.... it's just not in my pairs.....
I think the TRY still offers the highest interest rates available.
I think Brazil offers the highest interest rate at the moment, followed by Egypt and India. Anyway, who cares, let's just stick with the 7 majors and their crosses like you said.
  • #628
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:20pm Aug 14, 2011 8:20pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
it is hard enough to make money with just 2 pip spread pairs.
Really? I typically trade with 10 pip spreads at various times, actually just took this trade below with a 5 pip spread.

I think a lot of traders spend to much time trading EUR/USD for low spread rather than taking the directional edge..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spread.jpg Size: 180 KB
  • #629
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:24pm Aug 14, 2011 8:24pm
Quoting newyear498
Really? I typically trade with 10 pip spreads at various times, actually just took this trade below with a 5 pip spread.

I think a lot of traders spend to much time trading EUR/USD for low spread rather than taking the directional edge..

Nicely executed 123 there......
  • #630
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:26pm Aug 14, 2011 8:26pm
Quoting newyear498

I think a lot of traders spend to much time trading EUR/USD for low spread rather than taking the directional edge..

Absolutely, that is also my opinion. I would not hesitate to take an 18 pip spread trade on the wild GBP/NZD for example, if I see a good trading opportunity with limited risk.
  • #631
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:39pm Aug 14, 2011 8:39pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
I think Brazil offers the highest interest rate at the moment, followed by Turkey and South Africa.
Gosh, now you amaze me. You are capable of thought ? I really got the impression that you copy stuff out of books....with a moniker like yours i do understand that you have a lot of time on your hands. Is there any explanation anywhere as to why you think you are the master or Mr. of breakout trading ? Why do you think breakout is the way to go? Breakout is a very risky way to trade without a good understanding of S/R and S/D. So you are trying to talk top end T/A and then slide into F/A when you feel insecure, and need to maintain your position. Thankfully , i'm sufficiently mature to have waded through the mess you are trying to make.
Why are you here ?
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #632
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:43pm Aug 14, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting TraderinSD
Look at it from this perspective. If brokers are constantly manipulating the market order for their benefit...
Still thinking that Forex brokers do not play tricks against their customers?
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=309513
  • #633
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:44pm Aug 14, 2011 8:44pm
What is it about this thread ...... seems like every body has to prove they can piss further than the next guy.......

Have fun you guys.... I'm done wasting my time here.
  • #634
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:47pm Aug 14, 2011 8:47pm
Well said.

Quoting tradestar1
What is it about this thread ...... seems like every body has to prove they can piss further than the next guy.......

Have fun you guys.... I'm done wasting my time here.
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  • #635
  • Aug 14, 2011 8:50pm Aug 14, 2011 8:50pm
Technical analysis does work, support and resistance does work, trendlines are useful. Price action is predictive. If you know how to exploit these tools you can get an edge. I have years of screen time and losses under my belt and I can tell you there are numerous set ups that provide an edge. I know this from years of being on the wrong side of those set ups. I usually would have entered the market. After being in a position my judgement became clouded and I was unable to identify what was really going on until after the fact. At which point I could identify, time and time again, repeat set ups that fooled me for years until I finally started to wait until I saw the edges appear and then act.

It takes years of experience to know what to do with the opportunities that present themselves everyday. I understand your frustration but know one can hand it to you on a platter. You must put in the time and effort yourself.

I am going to throw you a bone here and show you the best set up I know. It has around a 50% success rate with a risk reward of 1:2 or 1:3. This trade was completed about two hours ago, not long after the market open for the week.

Firstly the market gaps Higher. an uptrend forms on the 15 minute chart.
before my entry, the market stalls forming a hanging man followed by a series of inside bars, spinning tops and doji's, In other words, a strong reversal candlestick cluster. Most would have read this as a short opportunity, a chance to sell at the top of the range.

But I was not interested in going short. We were in an uptrend and I would have been only able to target the 20sma of the bollinger bands for a 1;1 risk reward. Sometimes I take this counter trend set up if nothing better is on offer

I considered the odds of a break higher to be at least 50% and that the move would be more powerfull and therefore yeild a much better risk/reward

I placed a buy stop order to take me in long if price broke to the upside

Price did break upward and I was quickly in profit. However the initial move failed to reach my target and retraced.

I tightened my stop to .1 pip below the break out candle to reduce my risk after the failed first attempt

Price came back twice to within .5 a pip of my stop forming a floor of support. My trade was looking good again

Price easily achieved my target on its next attempt higher. The result was a 1.2% account gain for a .5% risk. A risk/reward of 1/2.4. I usually target a 3x reward with this set up but it was early asian trading and the spread was a crappy 1.8

I watch and analyse multple time frames upto the weekly chart. I trade one instrument only and I read lots of news. I also follow retail positioning. I am able to do this day in day out now in my tiny mini account. It remains to be seen if I can repeat this in a large account and the funds arent there for me to try anyway

Its not just luck, I work hard on my analysis to find opportunities and I know from years of experience what to do with them.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #636
  • Edited 9:10pm Aug 14, 2011 8:57pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
Why do you think breakout is the way to go?
Did I say I trade breakouts?? Where??

Quoting kaspopsicle
Breakout is a very risky way to trade without a good understanding of S/R and S/D.
Oh, they are risky? Gee, thanks for the invaluable tip, NOW I get it. What would we do without you?

Quoting kaspopsicle
when you feel insecure, and need to maintain your position
Please don't forget to send me the bill for the consultation, Doctor Freud. Yes yes, I insist.

Quoting kaspopsicle
Thankfully , i'm sufficiently mature to have waded through the mess you are trying to make.
Again, what would we do without you?

Quoting kaspopsicle
Why are you here ?
But to learn from your Highness, of course.
  • #637
  • Aug 14, 2011 9:22pm Aug 14, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Technical analysis does work, support and resistance does work, trendlines are useful. Price action is predictive. If you know how to exploit these tools you can get an edge. I have years of screen time and losses under my belt and I can tell you there are numerous set ups that provide an edge. I know this from years of being on the wrong side of those set ups. I usually would have entered the market. After being in a position my judgement became clouded and I was unable to identify what was really going on until after the fact. At which point I...
Hi M.A.C.Doug,

Interesting strategy, even though it does require some judgment on your part. Personally I prefer to trade purely mechanical trading systems.

One thing remains true however and I quote your post : " It takes years of experience to know what to do with the opportunities that present themselves everyday"

That's exactly the problem with most traders, they think they can just read a couple of "Trading Forex for dummies" books, open a micro account with 50 bucks and make a 100 grand each year, with no work and no study.
  • #638
  • Aug 14, 2011 9:33pm Aug 14, 2011 9:33pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Did I say I trade breakouts?? Where??
Your moniker



Oh, they are risky? Gee, thanks for the invaluable tip, NOW I get it. What would we do without you?
good, well done



Please don't forget to send me the bill for the consultation, Doctor Freud. Yes yes, I insist.

now we're starting to see the person who used to try to make out as a very nice ,cultured and unassuming , yet superior being on the music thread, gosh wern't you so polite. ...and so bloody boring.

Again, what would we do without you?

Carry on boring people?

But to learn from...
Your attitude is so reminicent of so many MLM scammers/spammers, i'm amazed that you have not refreshed your attitude to a level that i would not perceive
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #639
  • Aug 14, 2011 9:40pm Aug 14, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
Your attitude is so reminicent of so many MLM scammers/spammers, i'm amazed that you have not refreshed your attitude to a level that i would not perceive
Kaspopsicle, I strongly suggest you get some rest, you are getting delusional by the minute.
  • #640
  • Aug 14, 2011 9:59pm Aug 14, 2011 9:59pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Kaspopsicle, I strongly suggest you get some rest, you are getting delusional by the minute.
Oooh, you trying to go doctor ....delusional seems to be a favourite word/ insult of yours. I strongly suggest that you should respect this thread and respect the contributers rather than consistently take an ignorant, arrogant stance...in an attempt to win people over to your limp and deluded ideas.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
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