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Where is the EDGE in trading? The most important thing in trading!

  • #601
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:25pm Aug 14, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting euclid
I had a quick look, but I still can't find those trends.
Inserted Code
% of times a price move of X is followed by another in the same direction
=========================================================================

Pair | X    0.25%   0.5%    1%      1.5%    2%
--------    ----    ----    ----    ----    ----
EURUSD      49      53      53      49      47
GBPUSD      50      44      48      52      49
USDJPY      51      52      50      49      49
USDCHF      51      52      51      50      53
There is a site that I came across in the past that has this data to a very extensive degree...... I have just spent about 2 hours looking for it but danged if I can locate it gain........ So if anyone remembers it maybe you can post it here.
  • #602
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:34pm Aug 14, 2011 3:34pm
HA..... I found it.....

Predicting Price Action.

I myself don't try to predict price as I am more of a momentum trader which is reactive instead of predictive.
  • #603
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:49pm Aug 14, 2011 3:49pm
So much bullshit on this thread

If you guys want an Edge do what I did... Start talking to people who know what there doing.

I have attempted to do that for over 5 years and only recently had success meeting a few individuals who know how to really profit from the market.

In addition to the individuals I have met, I just acquired a position as a market maker for a trading firm and the people I am meeting now are blowing my mind away as they fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle.

Anyways my two cents about edges and if you really want one.
  • #604
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:51pm Aug 14, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting billytt
well the markets are open.Do any of you trade sun night
Of course, Sunday is like any other day.

By the way, Sunday is good for playing "fill the gap" strategies, if the trader knows what to look for...
  • #605
  • Edited 4:37pm Aug 14, 2011 4:00pm | Edited 4:37pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Of course, Sunday is like any other day.

By the way, Sunday is good for playing "fill the gap" strategies, if the trader knows what to look for...
Here is a little list of results from a 2 day a week system that I use at Oanda.

Friday Sunday continuation and Monday gap fill reversal.

I had to change the title to make it a correct statement.
  • #606
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:03pm Aug 14, 2011 4:03pm
yes your quite right, i have read that pro traders dont do Sun night but i'm currently 70% up on the last 3 months trading very early mon morning
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #607
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:20pm Aug 14, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting newyear498
So much bullshit on this thread

If you guys want an Edge do what I did... Start talking to people who know what there doing.

I have attempted to do that for over 5 years and only recently had success meeting a few individuals who know how to really profit from the market.

In addition to the individuals I have met, I just acquired a position as a market maker for a trading firm and the people I am meeting now are blowing my mind away as they fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle.

Anyways my two cents about edges and if you really...
Yep you said it alright, BS
  • #608
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:25pm Aug 14, 2011 4:25pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hello my name is Raj and I am your thread tour guide for this evening.
I forsee a retracement.! time to buy.. . ...I think that part of the edge is that it requires a lot of work and skill to trade. The hardest part is that trading is up and down and side to side. Thats' not an easy thing to gauge.
  • #609
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:33pm Aug 14, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting tradestar1
Here is a little list of results from a 2 day a week system that I use at Oanda.

Friday continuation and Sunday gap fill reversal.
Very good Tradestar1.

Now just wait and see, as soon as he is done dealing with his margin calls, Reres will come here and tell us that "fill the gap" systems do not work and never will.
  • #610
  • Edited 4:51pm Aug 14, 2011 4:39pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Very good Tradestar1.

Now just wait and see, as soon as he is done dealing with his margin calls, Reres will come here and tell us that "fill the gap" systems do not work and never will.
I had to correct the title of that link so it would more accurately convey the method.

I think Reres has a long hard road ahead of him, I have several simple mechanical momentum systems that work quite well....

Here are some stats on a very simple mechanical system YTD....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2011-08-14 at 2.49.30 PM.png Size: 64 KB
  • #611
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:52pm Aug 14, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
That's all there is to it: Find a trading pattern that works and look for it on every major currency pair, every single day.
I really just don't understand why do many people can't wrap thier mind around this....It is like they would rather not make money than open thier minds to different ways to trade!

To me, it's all about the money....I guess to some, it is all about appearing intelligent on some forum here and there. Heck, as long as I can wire money from my trading accounts to my bank account every month, I don't care if people think I'm dumber than a box of hammers!!!....
  • #612
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:01pm Aug 14, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting moneymaker2
I don't care if people think I'm dumber than a box of hammers!!!....
Actually Einstein... the quote is " as dumb as a box of rocks"

I'm Just messin with ya.... Good trading
  • #613
  • Edited 7:31pm Aug 14, 2011 5:08pm | Edited 7:31pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Very good Tradestar1.

Now just wait and see, as soon as he is done dealing with his margin calls, Reres will come here and tell us that "fill the gap" systems do not work and never will.
Actually gap trading works ok. I used it myself on mondays with limit orders set up on friday 1 min prior to the close. This is indeed very good strategy. Fading the gaps on indexes also works ok but profit rate is barely over 55%
  • #614
  • Aug 14, 2011 5:41pm Aug 14, 2011 5:41pm
Actually the range of concept definition of technical analysis is so broad that it is hard to definitively say that it does or does not work..... For example TA can range from anything to a simple cross over of MAs to pattern recognition to elliot wave, to fibonacci to support and resistance.... the list goes on and on.... some can make fibs work, some can make elliot waves work, while others use and succeed with MAs......

I guess what I am saying here is the field is so open and so diverse you have to find the one that works for you.... but that is true in trading no matter.... you have to find a system that fits your personality and yes what ever system it is has got to have a verifiable edge and YOU have to develop the consistency and discipline to trade it.

I have several very simple mechanical systems that I have shared with others but for one reason or another..... Not fast enough money, periods of drawdown, not sexy because they don't use a bunch of wiggly lines or neural network...... they can not use them for long without going to the next big system.

So bottom line find what works for you...... Don't expect to be a millionaire in the morning and trade on.........
  • #615
  • Edited 6:17pm Aug 14, 2011 5:55pm | Edited 6:17pm
As to system accuracy/win rate.... you can have a system that makes very good profit with win rates @ 40% or even lower.... the BS about high % winning trades is deceptive and quite often WRONG.
  • #616
  • Aug 14, 2011 6:15pm Aug 14, 2011 6:15pm
As to winning percentages, these can be very misleading ..... Here is an excerpt from Van Tharp's book "The Definitive Guide to Position Sizing"

Evaluating the quality of your trading system

If you have not read his book I strongly recommend it....
  • #617
  • Aug 14, 2011 6:23pm Aug 14, 2011 6:23pm
well traders i now found out how to make multiple trades simultaneousley as in all being sent out at same same. my 3 trades have have been made and now i'm away to bed. happy trading all
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #618
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:12pm Aug 14, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting jag1966
I like EU too, I almost always find what I need from five or six pairs. AU, GU, USDSEK, SWISSY and CAD. It keeps things simple.
Wow, USD/SEK, really?


Unless you are simply using this pair as a confirmation tool for other pairs (or for long, long term position), it is virtually impossible to make money with the USD/SEK, the spread is so ridiculously high (140 pips at the moment on FXCM) that it will mathematically rip apart any day or swing trader in the long run.

For example if the trader places only 5 trades per week, he will need to make 700 pips fast just to break even.
  • #619
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:22pm Aug 14, 2011 7:22pm
Usd/sek is @ 100 pip spread at oanda....
  • #620
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:24pm Aug 14, 2011 7:24pm
Quoting tradestar1
Usd/sek is @ 100 pip spread at oanda....
63 currently on FXCM. Only long term traders trade this pair, it is hard enough to make money with just 2 pip spread pairs.
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