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  • #4,801
  • Aug 13, 2011 7:16pm Aug 13, 2011 7:16pm
Quoting AlexanderSV
Hi, Chicky,............

Question is - do you really want to participate in those numerous tries and put your hard earned capital at risk?
I'm not that rich to participate in all attempts, prefer to participate in low-risk entries only, like when price breached the level from the very first try. So no re-entries for me there again. It's simply bad business to risk twice to get the same one TP. Double risk for what?

Regards,
Alexander
Alexander, I fully concur to what you stated and many others may also agree with us.

There is one thing in your post that I couldn't get (the bold text above). Let me explain: In addition to my main accounts, I opened a micro account about 54 weeks ago to develop a second mehtod. This account has witnessed several ups and downs but still surviving, however, I have so far failed in producing a second method. Currently I am testing what happens if we make several attempts for a long shot. So far I have made three failed attempts and fourth one is in progress for a target of about 500 pips (that is, Euro/Usd 1.3700). Since I take a risk of 20 to 25 pips per attempt, can make 10 or 12 attempts for +/- 1:2 risk:reward. My TP is the same, that is 1.3700.

Will appreciate your input.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #4,802
  • Edited 11:23pm Aug 13, 2011 7:48pm | Edited 11:23pm
Quoting VEEFX
...Because of this shift in mindset, I now track (1) how many trades I manually closed i.e. false breakouts or not waiting to hit my mental SL level etc? (2) How many closed at BE? (3) Average Duration of trade for manual close for loosing trades. (4) Average duration when I set my SL to BE. ...
Hey V,

May I also suggest that you track if moving to BE so quickly actually benefits your entry approach. For my own entry approach, it is a severe detriment if I try to move it after getting on the plus side by some arbitrary pip number. Moving to BE based on market structure is a better approach for me.

All my best,
MK
  • #4,803
  • Edited Aug 14, 2011 12:22am Aug 13, 2011 8:16pm | Edited Aug 14, 2011 12:22am
Quoting MidKnight
Hey V,

May I also suggest that you track if moving to BE so quickly is actually a benefit to your entry approach. For my own entry approach, it is a severe detriment if I try to move it after getting on the plus side by some arbitrary pip number. Moving to BE based on market structure is a better approach for me.

All my best,
MK
Hi MK,

For me, moving to BE arbitrarily works only:

During stacking episode
OR
When I get a cellphone alert forcing me to focus on another entry/exit
OR
If I am forced to move away from my trading station for personal reasons.
OR
If there is upcoming news event.

Otherwise, I move to BE only when there is a stall or negative feeling on the direction.

Edit: I track future performance of all stopped out trades at the end of each week as part of my weekend book-keeping effort. I also do endofmonth analytics on all YTD trades.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,804
  • Edited 2:48am Aug 14, 2011 2:44am | Edited 2:48am
Cam, your word of encouragemant to people is to be commended, I'm sure there are many like me who don't post often, who have been successful in this method.
Personally, where I am struggling still is as in USDCHF watching price coming back to me so much, A metal issue dealing with as someone else I know says the "little men" in my head.

My hindsight for the coming week is cautiously Long based on the weekly hammer.
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  • #4,805
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:08am Aug 14, 2011 3:08am
Quoting RED-Dragon
Cam, your word of encouragemant to people is to be commended, I'm sure there are many like me who don't post often, who have been successful in this method.
Personally, where I am struggling still is as in USDCHF watching price coming back to me so much, A metal issue dealing with as someone else I know says the "little men" in my head.

My hindsight for the coming week is cautiously Long based on the weekly hammer.
Thanks you RED, I know it's a strong trend down, but my personal opinion is that USDCHF will retrace up to at least 0.8300... overextended trends are not sustainable, price has to come back higher and get in some more sellers.

Also, you don't really have to struggle emotionally... take some profits, make yourself feel good :-)

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #4,806
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:18am Aug 14, 2011 3:18am
Quoting VEEFX
I gained confidence and moved to H4 for entries. Unfortunately, I am NOT getting the similar rate of success. That is all I was trying to convey in my post. I continue to question myself why I am unable to catch compelling breakouts on H4 that will instantly fly in my direction within 5-10 minutes of entry.
Hi Vee,

A small suggestion: can you also add a chart or more with your entries marked ? Perhaps someone in the thread can help you with an idea or two. Sometimes, an outsider can spot better than the one that's in the middle of the trade.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #4,807
  • Edited 4:26am Aug 14, 2011 3:29am | Edited 4:26am
Hello gents,
Sorry for replying in single post.
Quoting VEEFX
I continue to question myself why I am unable to catch compelling breakouts on H4 that will instantly fly in my direction within 5-10 minutes of entry.
On this I also very curious how momentum creates candles on H1 and H4.

My observations draw me to current conclusion that it is very rarely event that all 4 H1 candles within same H4 are of the same direction, size and strength (small wicks). Normally within one H4 there is one indecisive candle tending to move price slightly into visible direction, then one very high momentum H1 candle, with almost no wicks at all, then medium paced H1 again into our direction, and finishing either medium paced H1 into our direction or even indecisive candle. Composition of that varies from case to case, but again, I observed almost ideal candles (no or small wicks) within H4 not many times and the reason for them I account for big surprise on high impact news mainly and big dissapointment of the market on received figure. Yes, I observed market crashes are of much bigger scale and intensity, normally, than rallies.

As to immediately moving into positive territory on a trade taken from H4. Well, I observed quite a few H1 candles, which were closed without a wick on a side of the move, and next H1 had no wick at all.
Actually that H1 with no wick was closed in the middle of high momentum move and next H1 continued going w/o any retrace on H1.

On H4 and D1 no start wicks happens rarely. On D1 I observed such moves generally on market opening on Mondays Asia, especially if Friday had a big surprise on high impact news.


On moving trade to BE, I observed many times that if my trade is at least 20pp (for EU) positive, it's a failed trade if it goes backwards to the point of entry and in 90-95% cases will create a loss. So as soon as trade reaches 20pp (EU) I move it to BE. Which corresponds to another rule, where if after the entry there was at least 1 M5 bar engulfed previous bar into the direction of move - for me this is a signal to either put trade on BE (if it's still has positive pips) and give market decide its fate or, if trade is near 0 profit or even negative - I close it immediately.


Chicky,
Depending on a chosen strategy, if I calculated that for my winrate making 1 attempt per one price level signal will make me money and all attempts over that will lose me money long-term, then committing more than 1 attempt on same price level is simply not according to strategy and common sense.

For your strategy this 1 attempt equals to committing 10-12 entries at same price level to get to same 1 TP EU 1.37.
13th, 14th .. 20th try on same price level is simply overcommitment imo and won't make you money long-term providing you calculated your winrate correctly. If your actual winrate is higher than you calculated, then even 13th, 14th..20th try can produce you money long-term.


Regards,
Alexander
  • #4,808
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:28am Aug 14, 2011 7:28am
nice thread. it id very intresting.,, another gangster is ready to join the gang.. take care and have a nice day...
  • #4,809
  • Aug 14, 2011 11:36am Aug 14, 2011 11:36am
Quoting AlexanderSV
Hello ..............Depending on a chosen strategy, if I calculated that for my winrate making 1 attempt per one price level signal will make me money and all attempts over that will lose me money long-term, then committing more than 1 attempt on same price level is simply not according to strategy and common sense.

For your strategy this 1 attempt equals to committing 10-12 entries at same price level to get to same 1 TP EU 1.37.
13th, 14th .. 20th try on same price level is simply overcommitment imo and won't make you money long-term providing...
Thanks. Got it
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #4,810
  • Aug 14, 2011 12:47pm Aug 14, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Vee,

A small suggestion: can you also add a chart or more with your entries marked ? Perhaps someone in the thread can help you with an idea or two. Sometimes, an outsider can spot better than the one that's in the middle of the trade.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
Certainly Cam. I had to pause my trading activity last week due to work commitments and missed out on some really good moves. No biggie. I am seeing some good setups for this week. Will post some charts upon entry looking only at WK, Daily and H4 timeframes (and monthly too)
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,811
  • Aug 14, 2011 12:59pm Aug 14, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting VEEFX
I had to pause my trading activity last week due to work commitments and missed out on some really good moves.
Hi Vee,

Just wanted to add a small comment re that statement, in my opinion it is not healthy to think "I missed a good move", reason being that most moves look good in hindsight, but when you are actually in the thick of it, it is a completely different story, for example in hindsight you see the candles already formed, when you are in real-time price movements can definitely be misleading.

So... no regrets for the past because you don't know if you would have profited of that good opportunity in real time, just look forward.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #4,812
  • Aug 14, 2011 1:16pm Aug 14, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Vee,

Just wanted to add a small comment re that statement, in my opinion it is not healthy to think "I missed a good move", reason being that most moves look good in hindsight, but when you are actually in the thick of it, it is a completely different story, for example in hindsight you see the candles already formed, when you are in real-time price movements can definitely be misleading.

So... no regrets for the past because you don't know if you would have profited of that good opportunity in real time, just look forward.

Kindest...
Ok Cam and fellow traders....this is something I was waiting to initiate a discussion for a very very long time. Price Action! I keep hearing that Indicators are lagging. So true! No arguments there at all.

Isn't Price Action also lagging as we always look after the fact at candle close to identify setups/patterns/hindsight and anticipate looking in the 'past'? Why is Price Action considered superior than technical indicators? By definition, even if one trades on a tick chart, the trader is relying on past ticks or 'price' to make future judgements.

I am not questioning Price Action as a viable trading approach. I am just questioning why is it considered 'superior' to lagging indicators. In my opinion, EVERYTHING we 'see' is lagging. Even Volumes on a centralized exchange is considered lagging. I just don't get it when folks say.. "everything is in the price". Isn't price also lagging when used in making trading decisions ? IMHO, there is no such thing as a leading indicator. Even news is considered a lagging indicator as most of the time, it is already built in the price.

EDIT: Unless you have insider information or trading for the banks which might be considered leading information/indicator but most of us are not privy to that information.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,813
  • Aug 14, 2011 1:24pm Aug 14, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Vee,

Just wanted to add a small comment re that statement, in my opinion it is not healthy to think "I missed a good move", reason being that most moves look good in hindsight, but when you are actually in the thick of it, it is a completely different story, for example in hindsight you see the candles already formed, when you are in real-time price movements can definitely be misleading.

So... no regrets for the past because you don't know if you would have profited of that good opportunity in real time, just look forward.

Kindest...
Good point Cam. I never sweat on missing out on good setups. I am forced to take breaks from trading due to work/life commitments. Totally used to the fact that I won't be able to put my life on hod to catch every trading opportunity :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,814
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:13pm Aug 14, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting VEEFX
Isn't Price Action also lagging as we always look after the fact at candle close to identify setups/patterns/hindsight and anticipate looking in the 'past'? Why is Price Action considered superior than technical indicators? By definition, even if one trades on a tick chart, the trader is relying on past ticks or 'price' to make future judgements.
Hi Vee,

Not sure how the replies to this question are useful, but hey, since you want opinions:

The lagging comes from comparing the various instruments available at our disposal:

Price itself is just a number, so I would consider it the fastest information, Price action is the action of price (more commonly in the form of candles/bars/line), and then you have the indicators which are lagging behind the likes of candlesticks (because they need more information in order to show their signals, by comparison you can have a 1 candle signal...a pin bar for example).

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #4,815
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:53pm Aug 14, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting VEEFX
Ok Cam and fellow traders....this is something I was waiting to initiate a discussion for a very very long time. Price Action! I keep hearing that Indicators are lagging. So true! No arguments there at all.
Hmm..seems like this thread is taking an interesting turn in its development; however I must warn you that you may be on the verge of opening the proverbial can of worms.

Quote
Isn't Price Action also lagging as we always look after the fact at candle close to identify setups/patterns/hindsight and anticipate looking in the 'past'? Why is Price Action considered superior than technical indicators? By definition, even if one trades on a tick chart, the trader is relying on past ticks or 'price' to make future judgements.
A very noteworthy question, but I'd sum up the lagging vs. non-lagging argument as a strawman used to falsely justify the merits of one over the, because in a sense they are both lagging as you have identified. What may cause Price Action to be a more successful approach, is the fact that it uses market-generated information, such as the various price levels, which actually have a basis/reason for their existence; as opposed to the arbitrary settings which are slapped on to most technical indicators. The disadvantage it faces is that it perpetuates certain fallacies which although mentally pleasing are quite removed from what actually occurs in the marketplace. A strict Price Action approach implicitly assumes that the market is a collection of candles/bars, and that certain price patterns, formations or levels bring about changes in price simply by virtue of their existence. Success is then touted as being due to probability or supply/demand a-lá Sam Seiden. If you dig deeper than probability or supply/demand, one can actually find legitimate reasons why certain price patterns are formed, and it's no coincidence that said reasons are behind pattern successes and pattern failures.

Quote
I am not questioning Price Action as a viable trading approach. I am just questioning why is it considered 'superior' to lagging indicators. In my opinion, EVERYTHING we 'see' is lagging. Even Volumes on a centralized exchange is considered lagging. I just don't get it when folks say.. "everything is in the price". Isn't price also lagging when used in making trading decisions ? IMHO, there is no such thing as a leading indicator. Even news is considered a lagging indicator as most of the time, it is already built in the price....
Information can actually be a good leading indicator provided one knows how to interpret it correctly. I also wouldn't go by the assumption that news is already automatically built into the price - if it did, then price would not change when a news report comes out. However news does get factored in, but there is a time lapse involved, during which one can actually participate.

Quote
EDIT: Unless you have insider information or trading for the banks which might be considered leading information/indicator but most of us are not privy to that information.
You make a valid point but you would be surprised how much is out there in the open that can function as leading information.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #4,816
  • Edited 8:10pm Aug 14, 2011 7:00pm | Edited 8:10pm
Quoting VEEFX
Isn't Price Action also lagging as we always look after the fact at candle close to identify setups/patterns/hindsight and anticipate looking in the 'past'? Why is Price Action considered superior than technical indicators? By definition, even if one trades on a tick chart, the trader is relying on past ticks or 'price' to make future judgements.
Heya V,

I agree with the trizzle that this topic could be a dangerous and massive distraction to the thread content as it has been known to start holy war crusades on trading forums!

Yes, the price action that has happened is lagging to some extent, but it depends what your goal is. If you are aiming to trade within 10 pips of the pivots but are on a 60m chart, then that is not going to meet the goal most of the time and could be considered lagging. As trizzle said price action is at least market generated information and in the FX world without access to time & sales data, it is about as close to the source as one can get. Price itself is just another indicator so to speak, and people often curve fit this through timeframe selection to whatever their approach is. The arbitrary timeframes chosen isn't so different to the arbitrary indicator inputs chosen. If you backtest strict bar by bar price action it has a horrible success rate - so obviously PA alone is not any good when used in a strict objective manner. Like indicators, PA can be used successfully when discretion is applied and/or, but not necessarily, anticipation is applied.

Wishing you a great week at 'the helm',
MK
  • #4,817
  • Edited 1:50am Aug 15, 2011 1:37am | Edited 1:50am
Hello guys,

Imo price is a pure data, actually on stock market it's a reflection of held trades on different price levels. In FX it doesn't reflect actual trades AFAIK, but still price is a pure data, whilst indicators are merely aggregated numbers made from combined massives of this data, say average price for 200 samples on a minute chart or any other.

Without pure price any indicator would show zero, so you can try to interpret that pure data (price action) by your own, or trust smb else who invented how to interpret it in a form of indicator. Choice is yours.

I use MAs as merely rough indication of where other traders might look at, in order to create a zone of interest, where to expect momentum to rise or price to bounce back or whatever. But indication only can not constitute the core of trading system, at least profitable one, or I'm not aware of such existing.

Regards,
Alexander
  • #4,818
  • Aug 16, 2011 12:48am Aug 16, 2011 12:48am
Hi everyone,

Really late on this thread as I just discovered this a week ago. Just recently read finish almost the whole thread and I must say this is the best stuff I have read and totally changed my trading mindset.

I am from Singapore and have been trading only for 6 months with little success (just breaking even). I hope to learn more from you guys.

Im now starting the 3x20 entry exercise and re-reading this thread a second time to get more insight. Thanks once again to Graeme for sharing his wisdom and knowledge.

Regards,
Johnson
  • #4,819
  • Edited 1:07am Aug 17, 2011 12:45am | Edited 1:07am
I think that there is alot of truths in this thread and that if a trader/anyone is willing, then they might also experience the paridigm shift that G is trying to explain. . . welcome aboard!

p.s. @ everyone: I think that this method is best suited to accounts that can hedge. What do you think?

.

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  • #4,820
  • Aug 17, 2011 4:20am Aug 17, 2011 4:20am
Quoting VEEFX
Ok Cam and fellow traders....this is something I was waiting to initiate a discussion for a very very long time. Price Action! I keep hearing that Indicators are lagging. So true! No arguments there at all.

Isn't Price Action also lagging as we always look after the fact at candle close to identify setups/patterns/hindsight and anticipate looking in the 'past'? Why is Price Action considered superior than technical indicators? By definition, even if one trades on a tick chart, the trader is relying on past ticks or 'price' to make future judgements.

I...

price is advertising itself all the time to fascilitate a trade, thats the whole idea behind a market...

now what drives the market .. its supply and demand.. not buying and selling.. as everz transaction needs a buyer and a seller.. therefore only a rise in demand leads to a rise in price and vice versa for supply

also every new price will attract new traders with different approaches and intentions, for example.. some traders wich trade on a 5 min tf.. trade on there *own* till price attracts traders from a larger TF. when they enter there is allready a chaneg in behavior in progress meaning new traders with different views join the market...

volume can be a good guide to see the realation between activity and its result .. the price


so for example if we see a pinbar wich dipped below support area and rallies back to its top where it closes on high volume(speaking of higher volume then the bars before)

what information do we have now.. ?


well first off the activity increased.. ie.. price attracted more traders.. what was the result of it ?price rallied .. ie.. demand exceeded supply..

conclusion =

demand is sitting at the low area of the pinbar.. ie high activity (volume) wich resulted in a rise in price after a decline..

ie price generated value at a point in the decline where demand exceeded supply..

does it mean that we can go long now ? no! .. as the background and story wich has been told thus far. is important to...

i mean price could have dropped to an extreme where fear results in a fall
and at somepoint price is a bargain for others.. and the others exceeded the fear driven ones.. resulting in a seling climax .. wich could be the end of a down trend.. for now..

but as u can see u can gain more information of price and volume action . then of a indicator wich just crosses a line or turns negative or positive.. or turns green or or or or..

price is what attracts people or scares them.. not indicators... indicators.. are just a smokey blurred window in front of the price... more of a distraction then help..


cheers
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