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EURUSD

  • #522,241
  • Aug 14, 2011 2:52pm Aug 14, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting Chicky
I have a target of 1.3700 and will make 10 attempts to get into a position that survives. If this doesn't work, wil set a new target based on then prevailing market conditions. A failed attempt not necessarily means a loss as I try to get into a position where a bounce is expected, close 50% of the position if the bounce occurs and let the rest 50% run.

The only reason I am short is that 1.4000 was penetrated few weeks earier. There is no other logic or factor to this trade and therefore it is just a gamble. Thats why I use the words "betting...
With the upcoming debt problems in Europe it is more than likely that it will get there but it might take more than a week.
I think I read somewhere that Italy has 6 weeks of cash left before real problems set in, not to mention all the other troubled countries in EZ
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #522,242
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:01pm Aug 14, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting KillerWhale
With the upcoming debt problems in Europe it is more than likely that it will get there but it might take more than a week.
I think I read somewhere that Italy has 6 weeks of cash left before real problems set in, not to mention all the other troubled countries in EZ
Yes. There are several other factors too including less than expected reaction on S&P bullshit, US debt issue already built in USD's price, eruo zone's own issues, etc etc. I have not considered them in detail. This trade is only a gamble. You never know how long it takes a week, month or severa months. I surrender when my budget is over. My budget is based on 2.5% profit or 2.5% loss.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #522,243
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:02pm Aug 14, 2011 3:02pm
U/C above 78

E/U 1.4264
  • #522,244
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:02pm Aug 14, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Hi Egkid, here is another perfect textbook example of that pattern. This time the 3AM hourly bar was the fake, phony bar.

From A to B it seems like the euro is in a downtrend. Day traders notice that downtrend and are thinking about going short.

From B to C we have a "correction". Short sellers see this as an opportunity to buy the "pullback" or simply add to their short positions.

3AM to 4AM a phony wide range appears, "confirming" the downtrend and attracting even more short sellers.

And then BAM, trend quickly reverses and euro...
Mr Breakout I respect your activity in FF and agree with you opinion 99% but that "3 am fake phony bar" is a clearly bullish hammer and doesn't look like confirming the downtrend. I've been trading PA only for years and would never go short after a candle like that. The color of the hammer is not that important most of the time.
However you are right in the false breakouts.There is a strategy called "Bull and Bear trap" based on this phenomenon if someone is interested in it. http://forexbeginners.net/files/begi...Techniques.pdf
  • #522,245
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:05pm Aug 14, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting KillerWhale
With the upcoming debt problems in Europe it is more than likely that it will get there but it might take more than a week.
I think I read somewhere that Italy has 6 weeks of cash left before real problems set in, not to mention all the other troubled countries in EZ
You probably read it in one of Cloggie's posts. From a fundamental point of view, don't forget that the ECB are buying Italy's debt, or at least they have stated their intention. Like with Greece, this is a short-term solution as they only have so many Euros to do this before they have to print and that will only be at last resort. Just keep an eye on these bond sales which you can find on the ECB web site. Any announcement of QE3 and the size of it will be positive for the Euro. Let's see what happens! Take each day as it comes!
  • #522,246
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:07pm Aug 14, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting KillerWhale
With the upcoming debt problems in Europe it is more than likely that it will get there but it might take more than a week.
I think I read somewhere that Italy has 6 weeks of cash left before real problems set in, not to mention all the other troubled countries in EZ
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...w_tumbles.html

Snippet:

Currencies for their part remain comparatively tame, and one gets the sense that one of the markets is ‘wrong’. That is—either stock market traders are pricing in too much uncertainty or currency traders are too lax amidst considerable financial market risks. If forex traders are under-pricing volatility, we could see considerable deleveraging across key currency pairs and sharp exchange rate swings. This is especially true for the highly risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Recent CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows that Non-Commercial traders remain near their most net-long the NZDUSD in history, and a sudden flight to safety could spark a pronounced US Dollar short-covering rally.

A study of historical volatility on the US stock market shows that recent price swings typically precede important market bottoms OR much larger declines. Obviously it is critical to know which is more likely, but it is likewise anyone’s guess. This author believes that the stock market could see much sharper drops before any real recovery, and the US Dollar stands to gain on any such moves. Yet the coming week may prove pivotal, and it will be important to watch the next market moves given such indecision. - DR
  • #522,247
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:09pm Aug 14, 2011 3:09pm
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  • #522,248
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:18pm Aug 14, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting SirGoodman
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...w_tumbles.html

Snippet:

Currencies for their part remain comparatively tame, and one gets the sense that one of the markets is ‘wrong’. That is—either stock market traders are pricing in too much uncertainty or currency traders are too lax amidst considerable financial market risks. If forex traders are under-pricing volatility, we could see considerable deleveraging across key currency pairs and sharp exchange rate swings. This is especially...
I agree that we will see a much sharper drop in the equity markets, maybe even lower than the low of early 2009. Time will tell.
  • #522,249
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:20pm Aug 14, 2011 3:20pm
Here is a random. What criteria do you guys use to put your stop losses on EURUSD trades and does it differ with other pairs you trade? Have you been using tight ones over the past 2 weeks compared to over your whole trading year??
  • #522,250
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:24pm Aug 14, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting Mr.MaginCole
Here is a random. What criteria do you guys use to put your stop losses on EURUSD trades and does it differ with other pairs you trade? Have you been using tight ones over the past 2 weeks compared to over your whole trading year??
This works:

6 PRINT "Type two integers greater than 0" 10 INPUT A,B 20 IF B=0 THEN GOTO 80 30 IF A > B THEN GOTO 60 40 LET B=B-A 50 GOTO 20 60 LET A=A-B 70 GOTO 20 80 PRINT A 90 END
  • #522,251
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:29pm Aug 14, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting Mr.MaginCole
Here is a random. What criteria do you guys use to put your stop losses on EURUSD trades and does it differ with other pairs you trade? Have you been using tight ones over the past 2 weeks compared to over your whole trading year??
Very thoughtful question.

Yes, for me it varies from pair to pair. For EUR/USD my stoplosses are equal to takeprofit in times when market is not very volatile. In volatile times stoplosses are much less than takeprofit. Because of high volatility in the past couple of weeks, they are 1/5th to 1/10 of take profit depending how strong is the support/resistance near my stoplosses.

I do not expect this market to pay me more than the risk I take, the only advantage I have is where I enter my positions. I am through if more than 50% of my trades are winners in a block of 100 trades.

Don't know what others do and why.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #522,252
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:38pm Aug 14, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting Chicky
Don't know what others do and why.
I think I'd better not publish that!!!
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  • #522,253
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:40pm Aug 14, 2011 3:40pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I think I'd better not publish that!!!
LOL. I still remember your that trade more than a year ago. Five or ten pips for a stoploss of 2500 pips and it went several hundred pips against you but only after touching your takeprofit. I prayed for you. LOL.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #522,254
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:40pm Aug 14, 2011 3:40pm
Quoting bbakker
lol

I'm going to trade that gap... lol
Those gaps are always fascinating.
Attached Image
  • #522,255
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:42pm Aug 14, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting Chicky
LOL. I still remember your that trade more than a year ago. Five or ten pips for a stoploss of 2500 pips and it went several hundred pips against you but only after touching your takeprofit. I prayed for you. LOL.
That worked out, thanks,

But I was not thinking about trading
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #522,256
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:42pm Aug 14, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Those gaps are always fascinating.
i see yur focused
  • #522,257
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:46pm Aug 14, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Those gaps are always fascinating.

filling them is even bettr
  • #522,258
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:55pm Aug 14, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting needpips
filling them is even bettr
looks like a retail gap to me
  • #522,259
  • Aug 14, 2011 3:56pm Aug 14, 2011 3:56pm
1.4334
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #522,260
  • Aug 14, 2011 4:00pm Aug 14, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting Chicky
1.4334
Sorry. That's an incorrect number. Have lost my number.
The Thief of Wall Street
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