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  • #561
  • Aug 12, 2011 5:43am Aug 12, 2011 5:43am
Quoting AvanishDemo
too early to say though..
but looks like CHFs are retracing..
among all the CHF pairs,im watching AUDCHF:0.87 along with 61.fib.

culd be fine place to short at retest of 0.87 confirmed with sucidal downtrend.

will paper trade it.

(No Fundamentals.Just Techincials)
Not a pair I look at, but from your chart it certainly looks like a good area to be watching.

There are multiple places you can count as the top of the swing, so just be careful not to fudge your fib confluence.
  • #562
  • Aug 12, 2011 5:56am Aug 12, 2011 5:56am
Between the group we nailed it on GU today.

I posted what I was watching on this pair on Wednesday...and during Asia we got the PA off the box which went straight to the obvious target.

Another group member was waiting for the touch trade higher up on the retracement back to the 1.6300 S/R area with 50% fib confluence.
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  • #563
  • Aug 12, 2011 9:28am Aug 12, 2011 9:28am
Mark, you and the other poster called that one perfectly.

In the last few days, I finally believe I really can do this for a living. Now it is just patience to test my beliefs over the next year or so.
  • #564
  • Aug 12, 2011 4:40pm Aug 12, 2011 4:40pm
Weekly chart looks promising.
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  • #565
  • Aug 14, 2011 6:41am Aug 14, 2011 6:41am
Hi Lovejoy, thanks for showing some GBPUSD snapshoot from private forum! As S/R are really zones, how did u estimate the width of the zone? For example, I have my resistance line at around 1.62573 on my GBPUSD (attached). On the 1Hr, price retrace (circled) before it hit this resistance. My line was drawn from the daily chart, and I often find that a small difference in placement of these line on higher timeframe does matter a lot at lower timeframe, causing different interpretation. Is there any way to solve this question??

And I saw that you use a combination of lines and colored rectangular box on your chart. Does this has any significances on how you view them in your trade?

Cheers.. learning!!!

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  • #566
  • Aug 15, 2011 3:36am Aug 15, 2011 3:36am
Quoting kenkoo
Hi Lovejoy, thanks for showing some GBPUSD snapshoot from private forum! As S/R are really zones, how did u estimate the width of the zone? For example, I have my resistance line at around 1.62573 on my GBPUSD (attached). On the 1Hr, price retrace (circled) before it hit this resistance. My line was drawn from the daily chart, and I often find that a small difference in placement of these line on higher timeframe does matter a lot at lower timeframe, causing different interpretation. Is there any way to solve this question??

And I saw that you...
What I normally do is identify the zone on the daily chart and then scroll down to the 4HR and 1HR charts to try and pin point a smaller zone to look for the PA setup. You cannot always do this i.e. the 4HR and 1HR will not always give you one obvious area with in the daily S/R zone so in this case I would just be marking the main areas and watching for PA within the 'zone'.

So in the case of GU, starting with the daily TF, I marked my zone @ 1.6242 areas because of the previous time this acted as resistance in June - i.e. I used the close of this bar as my lower area of the S/R zone combined with the recent times it has acted as support in August.

Looking at the 4HR, again you can that this price area has acted as support twice in the last month i.e. the closing bars in both cases rested on this support.

Lastly, looking at the 1HR this again support this price as being a strong S/R price because ones again it stopped price closing below it and acted as support for multiple bars.

So in this case it was very clear that this exact price was a strong S/R area because of the fact price coulen't close above / below it on multiple time frames in the past.

I used different coloured lines for different timeframes - daily and above I use one colour, 4HR+1HR another. I used boxes to outline consolidation zones.
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  • #567
  • Edited 6:53am Aug 15, 2011 6:37am | Edited 6:53am
this looks a fine area to buy...(1.55)...
its facing the huge BEOB..but seems like recent price is struggling..
n price has shown a strong boost making higher highs off late (ultimately breaking the 1.55)...

a quick profit would be nice..only bcos this pair is choppy(n at times it behaves wild)..n that wuld be frustrating to hold on the trade more than one day..

js my personal views.

PS:anything wrong with my TA,do let knw.
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  • #568
  • Aug 15, 2011 9:44am Aug 15, 2011 9:44am
Quoting lovejoy80
What I normally do is identify the zone on the daily chart and then scroll down to the 4HR and 1HR charts to try and pin point a smaller zone to look for the PA setup. You cannot always do this i.e. the 4HR and 1HR will not always give you one obvious area with in the daily S/R zone so in this case I would just be marking the main areas and watching for PA within the 'zone'.

So in the case of GU, starting with the daily TF, I marked my zone @ 1.6242 areas because of the previous time this acted as resistance in June - i.e. I used the close of this...
Thanks Lovejoy... I will practice this first and learn from your comments! Very helpful info!!
  • #569
  • Aug 15, 2011 4:32pm Aug 15, 2011 4:32pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
this looks a fine area to buy...(1.55)...
its facing the huge BEOB..but seems like recent price is struggling..
n price has shown a strong boost making higher highs off late (ultimately breaking the 1.55)...

a quick profit would be nice..only bcos this pair is choppy(n at times it behaves wild)..n that wuld be frustrating to hold on the trade more than one day..

js my personal views.

PS:anything wrong with my TA,do let knw.
It's certainly a clear area to be watching closely. I generally only take 'first time back' style touch trades on the majors unless I have further confluence, so it would be a PA setup only for me.

The BEOB wouldnt bother me at all as in my mind it's played itself out now.

The BEOB was formed 5 days ago and in this time it hasnt managed to break and hit the main FTA @ 1.55 area like you would expect a bar of that size and momentum to do. I remember thinking at the time that those bars on the crosses that formed were unlikely to indicate that price would shoot down - I dont recall why now, will check my notes tomorrow but I do look at what caused the bar and if it is something that obviously has a low chance of causing price to continue in the same vein that caused the bar then I wont take a trade...but technically if a bar that size doesnt cause price to shoot straight down then something is clearly amiss...I mean the momentum that caused the BEOB has now clearly vanished so price moving down it not because of the BEOB therefore it is off no significance for me if looking at a TT @ 1.55 area.

Where would be your SL, Entry and FTA?
  • #570
  • Edited 12:22am Aug 16, 2011 12:10am | Edited 12:22am
Quoting lovejoy80
It's certainly a clear area to be watching closely. I generally only take 'first time back' style touch trades on the majors unless I have further confluence, so it would be a PA setup only for me.

The BEOB wouldnt bother me at all as in my mind it's played itself out now.

The BEOB was formed 5 days ago and in this time it hasnt managed to break and hit the main FTA @ 1.55 area like you would expect a bar of that size and momentum to do. I remember thinking at the time that those bars on the crosses that formed were unlikely to indicate that...
Mark..thanks for the detailed explanation..it gives more exposure to understanding..
i will re-think now...will js watch it..i also prefer FTB TTs..
but i call it FTB @ 1.55 given the huge bullish boost we had earlier last to last week n now price is back again @ 1.55.
as u said that u will wait for bullish PA setup..i think thats a perfect decision.
i will rather read all of ur posts to knw more abt it
  • #571
  • Aug 23, 2011 5:26am Aug 23, 2011 5:26am
Been a quiet few weeks, this time of year is well known for it's low liquidity causing periods of low momentum and periods of high momentum so I'm taking it easy until September.

I did take my first trade of the week today though, 4HR BUOB formed from the classic triangle breakout formation. I could have taken the retrace to test the breakout area as support but given ZEW data was due I preferred to wait to see how the market reacted to this data - data worse than expected and this area still held as support...a good confirmatory sign that price if it broke the top of the BUOB would head higher.
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  • #572
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:50am Aug 24, 2011 3:50am
Textbook touch trade setups on Gold and Silver overnight with the daily BEOB's in mind.
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  • #573
  • Aug 25, 2011 9:45am Aug 25, 2011 9:45am
Quoting lovejoy80
Textbook touch trade setups on Gold and Silver overnight with the daily BEOB's in mind.
A day or so later...
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  • #574
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:18am Aug 29, 2011 2:18am
Quoting lovejoy80
Weekly chart looks promising.
Monthly chart looking promising
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  • #575
  • Aug 29, 2011 10:35am Aug 29, 2011 10:35am
A couple of nice trade setups today.
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  • #576
  • Aug 29, 2011 10:35am Aug 29, 2011 10:35am
Quoting lovejoy80
A couple of nice trade setups today.
...
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  • #577
  • Aug 29, 2011 10:51am Aug 29, 2011 10:51am
Indeed...I only took gu but it feels good to now that you too was watching this level.
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  • #578
  • Aug 30, 2011 4:36am Aug 30, 2011 4:36am
Quoting madboy
Indeed...I only took gu but it feels good to now that you too was watching this level.


Looks like you identified the entry and first trouble area well, but did you take full profit at this area?

If you want to grow an account as efficiently and quickly as possible you need to give price an opportunity to run further than the first trouble area, it's a common mistake a lot of traders make IMO - always looking where to book profit rather than trying to catch runners and adding more positions if price moves in the correct way.

Anyone who has read ROASO thoroughly should understand the importance this.
  • #579
  • Aug 30, 2011 4:57am Aug 30, 2011 4:57am
Quoting lovejoy80


Looks like you identified the entry and first trouble area well, but did you take full profit at this area?

If you want to grow an account as efficiently and quickly as possible you need to give price an opportunity to run further than the first trouble area, it's a common mistake a lot of traders make IMO - always looking where to book profit rather than trying to catch runners and adding more positions if price moves in the correct way.

Anyone who has read ROASO thoroughly should understand the importance this.
Yes,I did and looking at where price is now,I can only scratch my head and look for another setup.On the other hand thanks for the very insightful analysis from the weekly emails and for the time that you put into this.
  • #580
  • Aug 31, 2011 9:16am Aug 31, 2011 9:16am
Another trade opportunity on UCHF...TL, first time back to support, round number, + fib zone ... confluene like this is telling you all you need to know.
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