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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,861
  • Aug 11, 2011 3:47am Aug 11, 2011 3:47am
Quoting Mpt
When liquidity dries up, you can lose out well beyond your stops.
That's why you should always use STOP-LIMIT and LIMIT orders instead of market ones, which really can be filled at any price once your condition is met. And often they do.
Even for initial purchases I always use LIMIT order.
  • #25,862
  • Aug 11, 2011 3:48am Aug 11, 2011 3:48am
Quoting Nectarios
09:07 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Japanese finance minister Noda declines to comment on either intervention or rate check.
Who then dumped so much of Yen into the sea?
  • #25,863
  • Aug 11, 2011 3:51am Aug 11, 2011 3:51am
Quoting fosking
Thanks, certainly interesting.
But wouldn't Japan be in a catch-22 situation? The government gets its money from taxes, and if Japan is exporting less, this means less tax revenue to complete all this work.
Sure on the other hand you would have a stronger Yen on the short term to complete this work cheaper, but longer term these exporting companies would have moved somewhere else and future tax revenues would be lower.
Wouldn't it be better to make sure these companies stay for the future so once the work is complete they have healthier tax revenues?...
I'm sure they worked out the math. Maybe it came out better to spend now and get production up so they can then sell more exports later this year or next year. Maybe that route makes them more tax revenue in the long haul as opposed to try to weaken yen first and export the lower than optimal production. Again, I don't know - it's just a theory.

Noda probably hates his job right now. On one side he probably has the corporations (big business) pressuring him to lower yen's value. And on the other side he has the government constantly reminding him how much they need to spend on recovery (without losing big business). So openly (publicly) you will hear him say they are taking measures, intervening, watching closely, blah blah blah. In reality maybe he's just trying to cater to both sides.

One more point with regards to the ensuring companies stay in the future. In closed door meetings the government may be giving them compensation for lost revenue in the short term. In this case the strong yen helps them too.
  • #25,864
  • Aug 11, 2011 4:06am Aug 11, 2011 4:06am
Surely increased revenue, thus profit is of greater value than a strong currency. A strong currency is important for a consuming heavy (import dependant) economy. So having a strong yen in the interim wouldn't really boost growth especially as major industries lose money - Toyota posted losses earlier. What happens when these corps get fed up and shift elsewhere?
  • #25,865
  • Aug 11, 2011 4:12am Aug 11, 2011 4:12am
whoever just did that spoils my day, we could have had a huge momentum down breaking .28 then rally back up .
  • #25,866
  • Aug 11, 2011 4:20am Aug 11, 2011 4:20am
Quoting Unknownpips
Surely increased revenue, thus profit is of greater value than a strong currency. A strong currency is important for a consuming heavy (import dependant) economy. So having a strong yen in the interim wouldn't really boost growth especially as major industries lose money - Toyota posted losses earlier. What happens when these corps get fed up and shift elsewhere?
Like I said, it might work out better to fix all the issues they are having now to increase production and have higher exports in the near future. As opposed to weakening the yen now and possibly paying more in the long term by effectually having to spend more on repairing infrastructure (due to lower yen value) AND lower production (less to export), meaning less revenue in the future.

To make it simple... maybe they have to decide on a trade off... and maybe they decided to sacrifice now for more later as opposed to more now and less later. Make sense?

Once again this is all speculation. Maybe there is no trade off or maybe they decided weakening yen now is the priority. Who knows.
  • #25,867
  • Aug 11, 2011 4:57am Aug 11, 2011 4:57am
Quoting fosking
It's not gambling if you close it though and wait for the dust to settle.
seems like the huge spike proves successful.
  • #25,868
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:07am Aug 11, 2011 5:07am
10:59FX COMMENTARY
Strategy suggest that Japanese officials are ready to intervene again, according to sources.

Source:http://ransquawk.com/
  • #25,869
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:18am Aug 11, 2011 5:18am
Spike up then retreated again.... More downside pressure....
  • #25,870
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:19am Aug 11, 2011 5:19am
Quoting tankokjian
seems like the huge spike proves successful.
We could start to see a bit of ranging between the two purple horizontal lines (77.22-76.30).

USD/JPY H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,871
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:23am Aug 11, 2011 5:23am
Could not break 76.3 again.

But we are breaking it... one more try to crack it..
  • #25,872
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:58am Aug 11, 2011 5:58am
powerful spike , making the breaking point even harder.
  • #25,873
  • Aug 11, 2011 6:16am Aug 11, 2011 6:16am
The U.S. Dollar is back in vogue

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/bu...op-choice.html
  • #25,874
  • Aug 11, 2011 7:54am Aug 11, 2011 7:54am
Jobless Claims Beats Expectations (Positive)


http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshow...&year=2011#top
  • #25,875
  • Aug 11, 2011 7:58am Aug 11, 2011 7:58am
  • #25,876
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:04am Aug 11, 2011 8:04am
damn it , should have not closed my long orders . with a loss. grrrrrrrr grrrrrr noda cheated in a fake intervention
  • #25,877
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:13am Aug 11, 2011 8:13am
Quoting tankokjian
damn it , should have not closed my long orders . with a loss. grrrrrrrr grrrrrr noda cheated in a fake intervention
Don't worry about it, you did the right thing. If you're unsure, just cut it.
There is absolutely nothing to suggest this thing is gonna fly.
The pressure is still down, we are in a consolidation period.
77.22 needs to break before anything north happens.
Just for the record, I'm completely flat on all Yen pairs atm.

USD/JPY H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.png Size: 158 KB
  • #25,878
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:16am Aug 11, 2011 8:16am
This feels like a double whammy intervention.
  • #25,879
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:18am Aug 11, 2011 8:18am
Quoting Unknownpips
This feels like a double whammy intervention.

Swissie's taken off
  • #25,880
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:19am Aug 11, 2011 8:19am
thanks for the consolation. i think it is better to follow my own methodology of trading. depressed right now.


Quoting fosking
Don't worry about it, you did the right thing. If you're unsure, just cut it.
There is absolutely nothing to suggest this thing is gonna fly.
The pressure is still down, we are in a consolidation period.
77.22 needs to break before anything north happens.
Just for the record, I'm completely flat on all Yen pairs atm.

USD/JPY H4
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