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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,841
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:43am Aug 11, 2011 12:43am
Quoting fosking
BOJ is going to have to try harder than that.
yes pretty useless this move unless they want to signal defending a level like 76.40, guess we'll know fast enough....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #25,842
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:46am Aug 11, 2011 12:46am
have you noticed that over the past two days there have been similar spikes one each day, however this one was more pronounced?
Never been vouched
  • #25,843
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:47am Aug 11, 2011 12:47am
Quoting fosking
BOJ is going to have to try harder than that.
No confirmation yet on whether it was BOJ. Usually by now it has been announced, but since it hasn't it may very well not have been BOJ.

Quoting Unknownpips
No more CHF either... SNB just turned it volatile with rumors of 1% deposit charge. It would seem rumor monger does better than any Yen intervention. Perhaps BOJ ought to start a rumor then once people start shorting again suprise them with an intervention. Shock & awe affect would keep us shorters on our toes.
It's not us that influence the market. If anything our short orders are reversed when placed with a market maker. It's the institutional level orders that are driving the Yen's value. I also have a theory that BOJ isn't really trying to lower the monetary value, but I'll stop there.
  • #25,844
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:48am Aug 11, 2011 12:48am
Quoting USD-Bear
yes pretty useless this move unless they want to signal defending a level like 76.40, guess we'll know fast enough....
Yeah, possibly testing the markets?
  • #25,845
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:49am Aug 11, 2011 12:49am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I also have a theory that BOJ isn't really trying to lower the monetary value, but I'll stop there.
My thoughts exactly
Never been vouched
  • #25,846
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:50am Aug 11, 2011 12:50am
whoever works this person is rich。
  • #25,847
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:59am Aug 11, 2011 12:59am
now we've done it, price glued to 76.59 and nobody dares to move.........
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #25,848
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:59am Aug 11, 2011 12:59am
where do the market go now ?? buy or sell ?
  • #25,849
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:00am Aug 11, 2011 1:00am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I also have a theory that BOJ isn't really trying to lower the monetary value, but I'll stop there.
Keep going, I'm interested!
  • #25,850
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:01am Aug 11, 2011 1:01am
so it might be a trial exposure
 Japan Ministry of Finance official declines to comment on whether Japan intervened in Forex market
  • #25,851
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:05am Aug 11, 2011 1:05am
Quoting tankokjian
so it might be a trial exposure
 Japan Ministry of Finance official declines to comment on whether Japan intervened in Forex market
Is your ransquawk running ok? Mine won't load properly.
  • #25,852
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:08am Aug 11, 2011 1:08am
running ok. now i am stuck w a long order. should i close or wait ? like gambling
  • #25,853
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:09am Aug 11, 2011 1:09am
Quoting tankokjian
running ok. now i am stuck w a long order. should i close or wait ? like gambling
It's not gambling if you close it though and wait for the dust to settle.
  • #25,854
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:13am Aug 11, 2011 1:13am
closed orer , got bitten 50pipps, excute at .67 , get price at .90
  • #25,855
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:16am Aug 11, 2011 1:16am
09:07ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Japanese finance minister Noda declines to comment on either intervention or rate check.
  • #25,856
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:19am Aug 11, 2011 1:19am
Quoting Nectarios
09:07ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Japanese finance minister Noda declines to comment on either intervention or rate check.
Lovely game Noda is playing. I like it, except he is either losing openly or secretly winning.
  • #25,857
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:20am Aug 11, 2011 1:20am
i think i am going to put a PO at 77.40 , incase BOJ intervene and i am not around. cant wait to see .28 tested again.
  • #25,858
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:23am Aug 11, 2011 1:23am
Quoting fosking
Keep going, I'm interested!
Well the idea behind a weaker currency is to help drive exports. The weaker the currency is in comparison to foreign buyers currency the more products will be sold hence increase in incoming revenue. We all know this.

However, if the country isn't producing up to capacity, then trying to help exports isn't being as efficient as possible. So they have to spend money to get production up. What are some things that could decrease production significantly? An earthquake, a tsunami, radioactive contamination of agriculture, and power shortages. Not too long ago there were planned rolling blackouts in Tokyo! Why? Because they don't have enough power to run everything at full capacity at the same time. Do you know how much money it's going to cost to buy new nuclear reactors (or whatever replaces nuclear if they go away from that)? Rebuild a whole power grid. Powerlines, transformers, equipment, etc. And that's just power. Then you have food distribution, labor, transportation, rebuilding factories, etc. Bottomline is they have to fix themselves up a bit before they shift focus back onto exports. A stronger yen helps them fix up their shakened (pun not intended) economy.


This was just a short and general description of my theory. It could be that they do want to weaken the yen and boost exports now - I'm not Noda so I don't know. Just a thought.
  • #25,859
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:37am Aug 11, 2011 1:37am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Well the idea behind a weaker currency is to help drive exports. The weaker the currency is in comparison to foreign buyers currency the more products will be sold hence increase in incoming revenue. We all know this.

However, if the country isn't producing up to capacity, then trying to help exports isn't being as efficient as possible. So they have to spend money to get production up. What are some things that could decrease production significantly? An earthquake, a tsunami, radioactive contamination of agriculture, and power shortages....
Thanks, certainly interesting.
But wouldn't Japan be in a catch-22 situation? The government gets its money from taxes, and if Japan is exporting less, this means less tax revenue to complete all this work.
Sure on the other hand you would have a stronger Yen on the short term to complete this work cheaper, but longer term these exporting companies would have moved somewhere else and future tax revenues would be lower.
Wouldn't it be better to make sure these companies stay for the future so once the work is complete they have healthier tax revenues?
  • #25,860
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:42am Aug 11, 2011 1:42am
Central Bankers Race to Protect Growth in 72 Hours of Crisis

Margin on gold increased !!!
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