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EUR/CHF

  • #1,041
  • Aug 9, 2011 4:43am Aug 9, 2011 4:43am
Quoting Vantage
Why fight the trend buying? I agree with central bank intervening its no longer the 1 way bet that it has been of late but 4hr chart still clearly on lower highs, lower lows.
And there's still the flood of money looking for a safe haven. Whilst chf have previously defended their currency for short periods they don't have the money for an extended fight?
  • #1,042
  • Aug 9, 2011 5:15am Aug 9, 2011 5:15am
Quoting Vantage
Why fight the trend buying? I agree with central bank intervening its no longer the 1 way bet that it has been of late but 4hr chart still clearly on lower highs, lower lows.
because these are the typical stops hunts in sequence that signal a reversal is close
  • #1,043
  • Aug 9, 2011 5:19am Aug 9, 2011 5:19am
Quoting fammira
because these are the typical stops hunts in sequence that signal a reversal is close
OK, I still believe theres a wall of euro zone money looking for a safer home. The trend down is in tact and I'll focus on that, good luck to us both!
  • #1,044
  • Aug 9, 2011 5:30am Aug 9, 2011 5:30am
Quoting fammira
because these are the typical stops hunts in sequence that signal a reversal is close
I agree. Went long at 1.0530 again after my stop below 1.07 was hit.

CHF is NOT more safe than other fiat currencies.
  • #1,045
  • Aug 9, 2011 5:33am Aug 9, 2011 5:33am
Quoting Vantage
OK, I still believe theres a wall of euro zone money looking for a safer home. The trend down is in tact and I'll focus on that, good luck to us both!
you may be right, but a sign from SNB will ultimately arrive, that would be the tigger and the rise will be much quicker than the drop as short squeeze do happen this way, usdchf should be trading above 1 this year end, EURCHF will move to 1.15 - 1.20 without big retracements
  • #1,046
  • Aug 9, 2011 5:38am Aug 9, 2011 5:38am
Quoting fammira
you may be right, but a sign from SNB will ultimately arrive, that would be the tigger and the rise will be much quicker than the drop as short squeeze do happen this way, usdchf should be trading above 1 this year end, EURCHF will move to 1.15 - 1.20 without big retracements
Are you saying this based on your sentiment (because you are long), or you are based on real facts?

To be honest I think the same way - it will rise, but SNB is needed.....
  • #1,047
  • Aug 9, 2011 5:53am Aug 9, 2011 5:53am
Guys, instead of SNB intervention I’d rather be watching closer for today’s FED statement where Ben Bernanke will have a tough job to do:
to calm down the whole investors’ world.

I am expecting something like: Guys, take it easy, it doesn’t look so bad, it’s ok, don’t panic, everything is ok (even if it isn’t in fact)
Traders around the world are desperately waiting for such words.
Well, then they will rush to buy stocks and bonds and currencies as they haven’t been so cheap for a long time.
And tomorrow for a day or two we can see green color on all markets around the globe, also for EURCHF going up!

For me as a trader it’s fckng boring, as I can’t apply my technical analysis into my trading.
All formations, patterns, support and resistance lines are kicked out of their regular orbit and it will take a while until they get to settle down.

So nothing new until 7.15pm GMT
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #1,048
  • Aug 9, 2011 6:25am Aug 9, 2011 6:25am
Closed the trade last night for 180 pips.

Here is the most important event today

FED STATEMENT AT 2 P.M Eastern time. EVery time when the FED meeting, the USD toast! just give you guys a hint!

Happy trading
  • #1,049
  • Aug 9, 2011 6:48am Aug 9, 2011 6:48am
Quoting me-me
Are you saying this based on your sentiment (because you are long), or you are based on real facts?

To be honest I think the same way - it will rise, but SNB is needed.....
I am not long
not yet

I know history never repeats in the same way, but if you observe AUDUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY, they are all came to multiyear high (lows) levels
frequent stop hunts like the ones we are seeing these days USUALLY happen before a big reversal
volatility increase, before these stops, most of the traders were short CHF, now they are scared and turning short, that's when the big reversal happen

my suggestion is to slowly add to a USDCHF or EURCHF long position, don't buy at the market but keep entry levels 100 - 200 pips lower than current levels (as more down moves may happen according to the total pending positions), and slowly increase

now talks about coming parity in EURCHF are increasing, another sign that we might not be far the beginning of the bounce, and it will be quick, the trigger could be any news, I don't really know.
if you spread the risk and slowly accumulate, you will be well rewarded here
  • #1,050
  • Aug 9, 2011 6:52am Aug 9, 2011 6:52am
Quoting halkins
Guys, instead of SNB intervention I’d rather be watching closer for today’s FED statement where Ben Bernanke will have a tough job to do:
to calm down the whole investors’ world.

I am expecting something like: Guys, take it easy, it doesn’t look so bad, it’s ok, don’t panic, everything is ok (even if it isn’t in fact)
Traders around the world are desperately waiting for such words.
[font=Verdana]Well, then they will rush to buy stocks...
if he would be out with such a word, market would be scared to death and more losses will come
they want action, even QE3 would be better, it would lead to sell off and then recovery, because market wants real news not uncertainity
  • #1,051
  • Aug 9, 2011 7:03am Aug 9, 2011 7:03am
http://i51.tinypic.com/242djsk.jpg

the monthly eur/chf chart

the fibb targets reached. this area will have my attention.
  • #1,052
  • Aug 9, 2011 12:38pm Aug 9, 2011 12:38pm
Might be a good buy to cover the parabolic drop on top of the SNB intervention talks...
  • #1,053
  • Aug 9, 2011 1:52pm Aug 9, 2011 1:52pm
As I analized last night, the EUR/CHF continues to decline another 300+ pips and now hovering around 1.01 level. Should stock traders continue to sell off across the board, this pair will continue take out parity and to the mid .90 level. Remember, the trend is your friend.

Happy trading!
  • #1,054
  • Aug 9, 2011 2:03pm Aug 9, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting Klforexr
As I analized last night, the EUR/CHF continues to decline another 300+ pips and now hovering around 1.01 level. Should stock traders continue to sell off across the board, this pair will continue take out parity and to the mid .90 level. Remember, the trend is your friend.

Happy trading!
Buck the trend buy the slump
  • #1,055
  • Aug 9, 2011 2:25pm Aug 9, 2011 2:25pm
Someone is going to look great buying the low, but then that's not what its about. Sell the rallies until this trend is done.
  • #1,056
  • Aug 10, 2011 2:09am Aug 10, 2011 2:09am
I'm impressed by the CHF strenght! There are no support and there are still many people who are buying this at these levels, like gold etc.
Enter Signature
  • #1,057
  • Aug 10, 2011 2:24am Aug 10, 2011 2:24am
Looks like intervention again right on London open like a few days ago.
  • #1,058
  • Aug 10, 2011 3:28am Aug 10, 2011 3:28am
Quoting Vantage
Looks like intervention again right on London open like a few days ago.
Intervention?

I'm very disappointed with SNB moves. They have very strong weapon in their arsenal - FEAR! The worst speculators fear is to lose money! Instead of this SNB repeat "Our primary target is inflation"... If SNB continue with that politics we will see 0.5eur = 1 chf at the end of the year... and "milka" chocolaty will be 10euros

I saw yesterday in exchange office, ordinary people sell euros and buy Francs... on all TV station across eastern Europe, every night you can hear about "Swiss francs strength, stability of francs" They spreed fear "Euro is doomed"
TV station and journalist will be responsible for massive lose of live saving of most of people who buy this over valuated francs because ordinary people buy foreign currency long-term.
  • #1,059
  • Aug 10, 2011 3:33am Aug 10, 2011 3:33am
Quoting random8
Intervention?

I'm very disappointed with SNB moves. They have very strong weapon in their arsenal - FEAR! The worst speculators fear is to lose money! Instead of this SNB repeat "Our primary target is inflation"... If SNB continue with that politics we will see 0.5eur = 1 chf at the end of the year... and "milka" chocolaty will be 10euros

I saw yesterday in exchange office, ordinary people sell euros and buy Francs... on all TV station across eastern Europe, every night you can hear about "Swiss francs strength, stability of francs"...
And we all know when the man in the street and the general tv news is onto it that's getting to the end of the trade.
  • #1,060
  • Aug 10, 2011 9:37am Aug 10, 2011 9:37am
Fundamentally is Euro Zone really in the trouble, especially at Italy, Spain, and Portugal. These countries really in cash-trap and the ECB can't bail all of them out!

Technically the EUR/CHF is in 4th WAVE of Elliot WAVE. The third Wave was finished at 1.01 yesterday and now the pair is zig-zag and waiting for the 5th wave to resume. Be really to sell again guys.

Happy trading!
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