Building an equity millipede

Hi Vee,
I would not say your attempt failed, I think you and Cam are clearly and dynamically heading the field with supporting Graemes logic and approach. My unreserved respect to you both (and all other who positively contribute).

Now, taking all the good things you and Cam have referenced in your last few posts as accurate and valid, I think there is an edge that application of this approach creates. For some it just required luck, for others it would have required persistence, but the end effect would be of having positions in the market sensibily and stacking when it all moved in the correct direction and grew. Graeme has talked about this and I simply reiterate his point that once a person experiences a growth factor similar to that he has shared as possible the mind reacts with "wow, did that really happen?". Once this has happened and 'if the individual is ready' then the penny drops and the psychology changes forever (I relate it to learning how to swim, once you realise how to do it then not swimming is not an option ... although you may decide to stop after one or two lengths).
I think you have also previously restated this so I feel a bit dumb stating it again!

What I mean is that the edge is the psychological belief gained via experience (which is how most beliefs are gained in life). I think most people have had the thoughts of "rats, I was right, if only my stop was not so close" .... "if only I had not panicked"... "if only I did not hover my finger over the mouse as I did not actually want to close the position even though I was thinking about it" ...etc. I personally think anyone who has spent a good amount of time studying what they are doing here 'knows' what they should be doing, indeed I would bet many knew what to do and confirmed they were right, but unfortunately after the event.
Really this is all basic stuff reflected in Mark Douglas' work and early Graeme posts. In trading fear really kicks in and experiencing a growth such as Graeme alludes to can either cancel out or supersede this fear. I call this emotional growth an edge, granted it is not a technical edge but there is enough technical gold edging given in this thread for the reader to choose an edge weapon of choice, this one is a psychological ah-ha that I hope you don't mind me relating to here?

You know my trading approach is not aligned by default with this thread, however you also know I am a keen follower of the thread, indeed I have been practicing this approach in parallel to my % target method for many months now.

I always enjoy your contributions to the thread.

Take care.

Trading time.

This looks more like a haiku than a post

I think the edge is participation in the direction of the longterm trend.(BUT No one really knows when the trend will change and for how long so is this really the edge?, Should I be fixated on the so-called long-term trend. I THINK NOT.

TRADING IS BASICALLY BARTERING. ALL MARKET IS BUILT ON BARTERING.
BUT through evolution and Political interference the MARKET TOOK ON A NEW FORM.( FEAR AND GREED). THUS wiping out human nature
of giving unconditionally.
These are the core elements of CAPITALISM OR INDIVIDUALISM.

The only way to win in such and MARKET is to know when to give and how much this cannot be measured on a individual basis, BUT by doing so you elevate yourself from the individual form that the market NEEDS and frees your mind/perception so you can participate when your intentions tells you to do so without fear or greed.

From Historical times in the barter system..ppl meet at the market place and exchange produce..at a certain time , there are some stuff they had no way of quantifying but is was bartered. Produce were vital to human survival so ppl participate in the system.
This is a GIFT Economy

The government loose in such a market, because they cannot measure or price or tax human nature of giving.

Take the Church for example.. A poor lady may give tithe of all her earnings because her belief says so. A rich persons who employs the poor lady may give just a fraction of what the poor lady gives. This is a belief structure and theres no way of quantifying it.


Then again there is no single EDGE I find. Well, Maybe if you really want to say there MUST BE a single EDGE you can say "TRADING IS PURE PYSCHOLIGICAL i.e Give and you Shalll receive. ALL HUMANS WERE BORN WITH THE ELEMENT OF GIVING, GREED AND FEAR". However, GIVING overcomes FEAR AND GREED. DONT ASK ME WHY OR HOW.
It's just the way it is.
Find at away to give and see how it feels.
Find and way to drive fear into someone and see how it feels.
it"s just nature.


SO is The EDGE focus on ENTERING a position OR IS IT FOCUS ON TRADING and WINNING in a INDIVIDUALISTIC MARKET PLACE?


Entering a trade is based on risk( how must risk can you manage is PURE PSYCHOLOGY. Even on micro accounts.
But you take guidance from timing and where price is. ( CHARTS)


So here is my trim down millipede list.

Building my millipede is like building an apartment building. It will cost for the plans, materials, lawyers etc. but once complete unit each will bring the LONG-TERM return to cover the expense and the cost. ( smoothing the equity curve)
BUT IT IS MY BELEIF IN THE END PROCESS THAT KEEPS ME GOING, KNOWING THAT MY REWARD IS INEVITABLE"

Ask any developer why do you contiune to build such huge buildings?
"They will say once it's built people will come" so they believe in the journey.

So with this in mind here's my list.

0. I BUY Above the OPEN AND SELL BELOW. IF PRICE remains DOWN BELOW WEEKLY OPEN PROBE SHORT AND VICE VERSA at the daily OPEN

1. BE positions. Loose emotional attachment to positions once they are BE job is done.

2.Probe in both direction Participate in both directions. - Its the probing effect that gives the single most important growth.

3. Aim for the 1000 pips move, this helps in invalidating the 200 pips positions which becomes meaningless when you finally PROVE that you can get the 1000pips move.

4. Give to the market and take away more.

5. Give to the market and take away 1000 times more.

6. Giving helps build the psychology.

7. When you give you receive a thousands times more( this is the LAW of NATURE)

8. GIVING CONQUERS FEAR AND GREED.( the fear of loosing and the fear or wanting more, it truly helps with participating in the market knowing and believing this means you will be rewarded.. ITS NATURES LAW).

To tell the truth there are a bunch of technical stuff on the charts. But I find that the market knows nothing about technicals or fundamentals.

Prices moves and stops and reacts to all types of lines as perceived by individual traders and it depends your broker charts... my MT4 chart is different from dailyfx charts.

The market is built on fear and greed, and one can't predict fear and greed for the masses, all you can do is just sit and watch or jump in and follow ( each traders risk/participation is different to the elements of fear and greed)

I came to this conclusions because I see Pin Bars failed, and I see my BE postions live and grow to over 1000pips.

But you have to be psychologically prepared to follow the market even if it turns and take out the 500 pip positions, but you already have a new position growing on the opposite move so who cares.

Thanks guys for your continous participation.

So I practice giving back to market and it truly helps, because the time will come when I will walk away with more.

My wife plays the lottery, she gives to the market hoping NOT knowing to win. She plays once per month.

I asked her what if you can play another game that you know that one day you will receive 1000 times more that you are giving.
She had no idea. She still play the lottery.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post4847090

I know I'm not active much on this thread, but my two cents, What I
have learnt is your one thing, or edge and or general success or failure is YOU yip the man in the mirror, that's your edge.

This is a great exercise to help gain confidence in trading statistically!

I ran a similar test. I tossed a coin 100 times.
Each time it landed on heads I would add a new position with +10 pips and I would add 10 pips to all open positions and set their stop loss to Break Even.

Each time the coin landed on Tails, I would subtract 10 pips from all open positions and close the one position that was at +10 pips as it would have hit its break even stop loss.

I created a spreadsheet with the results (attached).

Out of 100 coin tosses, I had 48 tails and 52 heads. With these results you would think that the overall profit gained would not be that much since there were only 4 more heads than tails.

I did all the coin tosses first and recorded the outcome in column 2, then I went back and filled in all the trades.

I was really Shocked by the results!!

I had -480 pips from the closed trades.

But I ended up with 2301 pips in floating profit from the open trades that were left to run to their full potential..

The spreadsheet is also interesting - If you flip it on its side, it looks like the equity curve showing how the account grows over time.

Now I am Really a Believer.....

Good ... but are you making money ? I am asking because from my own experiments I found that tossing a coin for 100 times is still going to result in 1 coin only (well...a more experienced coin since it went up and down 100 times, but still just one coin) ;-)

Kindest Regards,

Cam

Thank you Graeme for sharing this approach. The attached shows the results in 9 days (demo).

Thank you.

Righteous!

Your similation on its side isn't too far off of what mine looks like.
http://i51.tinypic.com/2qspd93.jpg

Yes it look almost identical.

What is it a chart of? Is it a coin toss test or actual trades?

Weekly acct equity (balance + open trades)

Hello, mates.

Well, shown example works if we have price breaking to the one side or another in the end. If it's bound in the range - results are complete disaster.

Thus one needs a lot of patience and right lotsize and no overtrading in order to reach that state of price breaking the range, like it's now in EURUSD.

With risky currencies and safe havens it worked out recently very well - in just couple of weeks AUDUSD, NZDUSD, UCDCHF, USDCAD went more than 500 pips with small pullbacks.

Btw I learnt from your experience, Cam, on trying once or twice a week - it really saves valuable soldiers from the current nightmare. As Graeme pointed out - if and when it works - it simply works. If it doesn't work straight away - it's simply not a perfect setup or something left behind, so better save probes for the next golden opportunity. Thank you, Cam, for reminding me that truth.

Just found a very good quotation from Livermore on this:
"The big money is made by the sittin' and the waitin' -- not the thinking. Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade."

Just finished ReRereading the thread ...

Can you summarize the thread for us.

My edge or one thing seems to be picking the pairs that are moving nicely.Graham did address this in the thread, but only recently i have started to realise the importance.I see the market as an opponent with many different strengths and weaknesses.My job is to expliot the weaknesses.Picking the best moving pairs i find helps shift the odds in your favour.you can never truely rule out variance but if im limiting my risk im happy to take a chance.


p.s does anybody know how i can get the equity graph on mt4...thanks

It is really simple...

Got to the terminal and click on the "Account History" tab.
Then right click to pull up the menu.
Then select the period you want to analyze (All History, Last 3 months, etc)
Then click on "Save as Detailed Report"
It will present you with a report of all trades and an equity graph.

Have fun..

Guys,

Can anyone help me. I got recurring problem with my computer hangging, and cannot log-on to mt4 with several pairs and indicator running on it. Forced to exit, uninstall the existing one and reinstall a new Mt4. When I logged on anew with the new installed ff after logging off, the same screen is appearing. The system somehow cannot free itself from the previous flatform.

Any help is highly appreciated.

Edd

Sounds like you have a bad indicator hanging it up.
When you install a fresh new mt4, make sure you install it in a new folder.
Then login and try it before you install your custom indicators.

If you have MT4 locked in a loop caused by a bad indicator then go to the indicator and delete it directly, then MT4 will start up without trying to apply it (as it cannot find it) .... the bad incator should be found in 'program files | MT4 install location depending on your broker | experts | indocators | bad_indicator.ex4'

That's account balance and not floating equity curve.

Hint: search "AccountEquityAnalyzer" here on FF (I would not recommend using it as it will affect your mindset if you keep starring at it all day!)