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USD/CHF

  • #2,561
  • Aug 7, 2011 4:19am Aug 7, 2011 4:19am
wonder how this'll play out on USDCHF the problem going long last week is potentially a big gap down under your stop.
  • #2,562
  • Aug 7, 2011 4:32am Aug 7, 2011 4:32am
I'm going to be short USDCHF, short AUDCHF, long CHFCAD, long GBPUSD, long Gold, Short Oil, reevaluate before tuesday asian > could be choppy so smaller poistions and conservative stops.

I don't know about everyone else but im psyched to cash in on this volatility.
  • #2,563
  • Aug 7, 2011 4:35am Aug 7, 2011 4:35am
oh and of course! short EURCHF
  • #2,564
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:13am Aug 7, 2011 6:13am
Quoting Walker93
I'm going to be short USDCHF, short AUDCHF, long CHFCAD, long GBPUSD, long Gold, Short Oil, reevaluate before tuesday asian > could be choppy so smaller poistions and conservative stops.

I don't know about everyone else but im psyched to cash in on this volatility.
I would do exactly the opposite if these pairs go where you expect them to go for two days in a row....then I don't understand why you long GBP

another thing, why you short USDCHF, AUDCHF and long CHFCAD?
wouldn't it be better to spread the risk instead of opening 3 similar positions?
  • #2,565
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:31am Aug 7, 2011 6:31am
Quoting fammira
I would do exactly the opposite if these pairs go where you expect them to go for two days in a row....then I don't understand why you long GBP

another thing, why you short USDCHF, AUDCHF and long CHFCAD?
wouldn't it be better to spread the risk instead of opening 3 similar positions?
Because its a v.short term trade and I will not execute until market sentiment dictates so; but i would expect the reaction from the large funds will be very visible in the price action.

I am still considering the possible reactions from the asian & london session but i am looking for a very short term play across the board > hedging short term positions, creating unnecessary beta will reduce balanced alpha returns and create a risk of un-needed losses.

Of course when i have made my decision i will have to be very sharp but im expecting to be able to return to my usual strategy after a few days' action.

How you playing it?
  • #2,566
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:32am Aug 7, 2011 6:32am
also why would you expect USD to appreciate? which is what you are implying saying your going the opposite way?

Oh and with regards to GBP > i expect the BofE will raise rates before the Fed, they have a higher aggregate rating so some funds will naturally be transferred...but remember each individual trade is small and will be easily liquidated ICE.
  • #2,567
  • Aug 7, 2011 7:55am Aug 7, 2011 7:55am
Quoting Walker93
also why would you expect USD to appreciate? which is what you are implying saying your going the opposite way?

Oh and with regards to GBP > i expect the BofE will raise rates before the Fed, they have a higher aggregate rating so some funds will naturally be transferred...but remember each individual trade is small and will be easily liquidated ICE.
I would expect USD to reverse after two or three days needed to digest the news, market is already very short USD and this news was widely expected

yes, BoE should raise before Fed, but I would prefere to wait until Tuesday / Wednesday, ie after Fed meeting and after the US debt downgrade has been digested and created some occasion

as to how to play, I would be happy to buy USDCHF or EURCHF if they move towards 0.73 -74 and 1.02 - 03 respectively, or also to sell gold around or above 1700 for a 50 - 100$ retracement, as well as buying USDJPY around 75 would be a way to exploit the potential USD weakness.
always start with one mini lot, increase 100 - 150 pips against and place the third biggest entry around 200 pips below my first entry point
and will trade only one, maximum two pairs at the time to limit the risk

I wonder what would happen if Fed surprisingly increase rates next week...
  • #2,568
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:04am Aug 7, 2011 9:04am
Quoting fammira
I would expect USD to reverse after two or three days needed to digest the news, market is already very short USD and this news was widely expected

yes, BoE should raise before Fed, but I would prefere to wait until Tuesday / Wednesday, ie after Fed meeting and after the US debt downgrade has been digested and created some occasion

as to how to play, I would be happy to buy USDCHF or EURCHF if they move towards 0.73 -74 and 1.02 - 03 respectively, or also to sell gold around or above 1700 for a 50 - 100$ retracement, as well as buying USDJPY...
Fair call - i guess we have different styles but sounds logical anyway > good luck anyway, lots of money to be made this week
  • #2,569
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:20am Aug 7, 2011 9:20am
Good luck getting usd/chf at .73.....74. Reliable sources say snb set to intervene early in the week. Snb is ready for war, and when they intervene expect a 600 to 700 pip reversal. Not worth risking 6 pips for 1.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #2,570
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:38am Aug 7, 2011 9:38am
Quoting frothy
Good luck getting usd/chf at .73.....74. Reliable sources say snb set to intervene early in the week. Snb is ready for war, and when they intervene expect a 600 to 700 pip reversal. Not worth risking 6 pips for 1.
I honestly can't see a 700 pip move on the upside with all the volume we've been seeing > Not tomorrow anyway...maybe after the dust has settled the BOJ & SNB & Chinese can combine forces haha Coalition of Currency Bandits
  • #2,571
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:57am Aug 7, 2011 9:57am
Quoting frothy
Good luck getting usd/chf at .73.....74. Reliable sources say snb set to intervene early in the week. Snb is ready for war, and when they intervene expect a 600 to 700 pip reversal. Not worth risking 6 pips for 1.
I did not say I want to sell at 0.73 - 74, I said I want to buy at those levels
if they are not reached, I will not be worried at all, and won't jump on any intervention train as it will miserably fail in few days again

SNB should instead be aware that market is too long CHF not to reverse itself at levels that can't much much higher than current ones
  • #2,572
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:19am Aug 7, 2011 10:19am
I would only short this pair in a ny session for a day trade....but that is even tough as the range will be tough and stop losses hunted. Maybe better to play something else.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #2,573
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:34am Aug 7, 2011 10:34am
Quoting frothy
I would only short this pair in a ny session for a day trade....but that is even tough as the range will be tough and stop losses hunted. Maybe better to play something else.
Also can`t wait when market open after 5 hr 27 min. Too late understood "save haven" All IN
Short short short till intervence
Once scalper always scalper
  • #2,574
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:31am Aug 7, 2011 11:31am
The fluckers tanked it to 0.753
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #2,575
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:34am Aug 7, 2011 11:34am
CHFJPY testing 105; so much for SNB intervention.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #2,576
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:37am Aug 7, 2011 11:37am
Quoting FiatFap
The fluckers tanked it to 0.753
what do you mean? it will open at this rate?
  • #2,577
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:44am Aug 7, 2011 11:44am
Quoting FiatFap
The fluckers tanked it to 0.753
Hang on whys it moving? You another one on oanda?
My brokers not even letting me place orders!
  • #2,578
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:51am Aug 7, 2011 11:51am
Quoting Walker93
Hang on whys it moving? You another one on oanda?
My brokers not even letting me place orders!
I'm with crappy alpari, so can't manage trades at weekend; i use xe to view live price.

Got a buy @ 0.76 and it was hovering around 0.7675 friday close, so i was at break even and thought the 750 pips would be enough breathing space.

So when market opens for minions @ 11pm GMT, alpari will close my trade for almost 2,000 pip loss if if goes down to 0.75 level.

It's moving because Amerikans are tossers debasing their currency; just hurry up China and invade them - get it over and done with.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #2,579
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:54am Aug 7, 2011 11:54am
Quoting FiatFap
I'm with crappy alpari, so can't manage trades at weekend; i use xe to view live price.

Got a buy @ 0.76 and it was hovering around 0.7675 friday close, so i was at break even and thought the 750 pips would be enough breathing space.

So when market opens for minions @ 11pm GMT, alpari will close my trade for almost 2,000 pip loss if if goes down to 0.75 level.

It's moving because Amerikans are tossers debasing their currency; just hurry up China and invade them - get it over and done with.
careful going long on usd dude, (if thats what you meant) > but the xe price isnt too reliable imo and the bank feeds arent open until the brokers fire up the servers >> so you could be alright yet
  • #2,580
  • Aug 7, 2011 12:02pm Aug 7, 2011 12:02pm
Farcex is 24/7, it's only the crappy brokers who shut up shop for the weekend.

I think you can trade with oanda over weekend but their spreads are 100 pips or something ridiculous.

I'm looking for dollar buys as obummer needs to get re-elected. Only then will they impose hell by heavy taxation, spending cuts et al. Austerity in America now will be political suicide in run up to election.

They must rally dollar to give americans a feel good factor and false sense of recovery, else hyperinflation and +$4 gasoline will mean obomba has bob hope and no hope of re-election.

The SP500 corroborated the dollar rally theory last week as SP500 goes down, then euro goes down and dollar goes up.

Also, commodity currencies tanked last week as gold and silver may be heading for turn as they also increased margin requirements to decrease PM volatility.

/rant
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
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