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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #285,881
  • Aug 6, 2011 9:37am Aug 6, 2011 9:37am
Quoting mloistianto
Well.. some project going on. Leaving forex for a while..

Yep. Great as a horse.. Still making money in this business i suppose?

Good to be back..

as my view for this one.. I'm waiting for a Real break out from this range..


Please people. Stay away of short for the moment. stay on chart. i prefer a break to top side. Just wait and see.

For your info, i dont hold any trade at this moment. I'm not a fundamentalist, I'm not a psychic, I just follow my chart.
  • #285,882
  • Aug 6, 2011 10:20am Aug 6, 2011 10:20am
I post my views here because I see a lot of traders struggling to understand the dynamics of forex market. I was in similar position a few years back and always glad to share my experience for the benefit of others. I cut my teeth here and I love sharing some of my new tricks here. Forex is an "organised chaos" and you need to have an "helicopter eyeview" of the market to discern the pattern. 50 pips price analysis, which I explained belows, is one of the tools I now use to know the intention of the "big players". .

50-Pip Price Action Analysis

50-Pip Price Action Analysis or 50-PAA is something I stumbled upon by accident. There was a day I had problem opening my MetaTrader and I had some trades running. To monitor live price action, I went to www.bbc.co.uk. There was a live forex chart on the website divided with horizontal lines which are 50 pips apart. That day price was consolidating within a very tight range of 50 pips. After about 8 hours, price was still within that 50 pips range. When price broke out of tight range it moved for about 150 pips. I found the observation interesting and replicated similar lines on my chart for closer analysis. I will now discuss some of the benefits of 50-PAA based on my analysis.

Daily Candle

50-PAA easily shows the average price movement in a single day. For example the cable generally moves about 80-120 pips per day and around 200 pips per day when breaking out of consolidation. The benefit of this is that you can fairly predict the range of a daily candle, identify consolidation, identify a breakout including support/resistance level. For example from the daily chart below it is clear that price has been consolidating between the yellow and red points (about 250 pips) for the past 11 days.

H4 Candle

As I mentioned in some of my previous postings here H4 is the key for day traders. It is easier to pick temporary support/resistance areas. Furthermore, you have the luxury of adequate notice to take a trade (this could be up to 16 hours in some cases) . From the H4 chart below, you can see where H4 candle consolidated for between 12-60 hours within a 50 pips range around support/resistance areas before a big move.

The benefit of 50-PAA for day traders is that H4 candle will give you up to 12 hours or more notice to enter the trade a good trade that would yield over 150 pips. You can then go to lower time frame at M15 to enter the trade. With this knowledge it will be easier to recognize 1st class trading opportunities and will never be under any pressure to enter into a trade.

H1, M15, M5 Candles

With 50-PAA it easy to see many H1, M15, M5 candles within a 50-pip range and easily recognize a break out or a continuation of a strong move.
Using this analysis it becomes easier to understand price movement without any complicated and confusing indicator.

See the relevant charts below as usual.

Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1312480157 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1312480157 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1312480217
  • #285,883
  • Aug 6, 2011 10:46am Aug 6, 2011 10:46am
Quoting mloistianto
Well.. some project going on. Leaving forex for a while..

Yep. Great as a horse.. Still making money in this business i suppose?

Good to be back..

as my view for this one.. I'm waiting for a Real break out from this range..


Please people. Stay away of short for the moment. stay on chart. i prefer a break to top side. Just wait and see.

For your info, i dont hold any trade at this moment. I'm not a fundamentalist, I'm not a psychic, I just follow my chart.
yep
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #285,884
  • Aug 6, 2011 12:36pm Aug 6, 2011 12:36pm
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=399

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=400
  • #285,885
  • Aug 6, 2011 2:06pm Aug 6, 2011 2:06pm
saturday evening...
some music while refreshing charts
for those who like
http://soundcloud.com/djmixes/legend...-dance-floor-a
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #285,886
  • Aug 6, 2011 3:31pm Aug 6, 2011 3:31pm
Whilst 1hr is in an undoubted opa (overall price action) uptrend, closing just off it's Hi on Friday, both the Daily and 4hr are in something of a range consolidation (with an upside biais now?) between that 6474-6222 (shown in the white rectangle on 1hr chart below.) Price is above it's 100sma on both 4hr and Daily and this remains crossed up thru it's 200sma on both t/f's.

Whilst Daily is in somewhat of a consolidation (shown in rectabngular box on chart below,) it has only printed a L off the HH (no LL yet) and the ? could well turn into a fractal HL on close of Monday's candle...the biais remains bullish on this t/f.

Doubtless a lot of participants will await a break of this area before taking a position, but as usual, opportunities will exist on the lower t/f's whilst price remains in the range

The weekly candle just closed closed as a slightly bearish spinning top/non descript ? whilst Friday's daily candle was very bullish closing above 50% of the previous Daily bearish thrust candle on Thursday.

Immediately above current price [not including daily (for Monday) and next week's weekly pivots,] are the following:

6388-96 prev 1hr swing hi zone
6435-40 prev 1hr/4hr swing hi zone
6459-74 prev 1hr x 3/4hr x 3/daily x 2 swing hi zone
6475-96 previous 4hr swing hi zone
6515-32-46 previous 4hr/daily/weekly swing hi zone inc 76.4% 6746-5779 @ 6516,
6665 Monthly R1 @/around
6714-46 previous daily/weekly swing hi zone

How will markets react to the U.s sovereign debt downgrade ?

G/L
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Attached Image
ex member
  • #285,887
  • Aug 6, 2011 4:22pm Aug 6, 2011 4:22pm
h1 chart
sorry if looks bit confused, im working on it and share to find more help..

that fibofan comes from 5780 low, i didn't draw it until 5minutes ago.
price got a fast move to 50% of previous move 6443-6233 then recovered at actual price.

i see some clear facts:
.we are in few pips above the middle of range area;
.price looks like going more up at least to 6407. i prefere thinkin on 6443-6470 range;
.ema60+200(green+white) are pointing again up but still below sma200(red) so possible to see price moving down IF/WHEN 3lines will cross each other;
.1+2+3range is the middle area: in recent sessions when price closed out went further in that direction till main sup/dem areas drawn;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #285,888
  • Aug 6, 2011 4:31pm Aug 6, 2011 4:31pm
Hey dude i have question for you ? a great NFP on Friday and market fear about possible downgrade on friday to uncle sams AAA+ rating ...Now that is downgraded by she (bitch S&P) Saudis first to react on Saturday 5.65 % negative closed stocks..what do u think ANd how would it effect fx market and usd pair gbp/usd...please if you could





Quoting _BBKing_
h1 chart
sorry if looks bit confused, im working on it and share to find more help..

that fibofan comes from 5780 low, i didn't draw it until 5minutes ago.
price got a fast move to 50% of previous move 6443-6233 then recovered at actual price.

i see some clear facts:
.we are in few pips above the middle of range area;
.price looks like going more up at least to 6407. i prefere thinkin on 6443-6470 range;
.ema60+200(green+white) are pointing again up but still below sma200(red) so possible to see price moving down IF/WHEN 3lines...
We cannot direct the winds but we can adjust our sail.
  • #285,889
  • Aug 6, 2011 4:34pm Aug 6, 2011 4:34pm
same chart in m15 n m5 TF

i agree @bbmac: whole world wait the breaking of main daily range. but best things happen in faster TF
Attached Images
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #285,890
  • Aug 6, 2011 4:55pm Aug 6, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting posterboy
Hey dude i have question for you ? a great NFP on Friday and market fear about possible downgrade on friday to uncle sams AAA+ rating ...Now that is downgraded by she (bitch S&P) Saudis first to react on Saturday 5.65 % negative closed stocks..what do u think ANd how would it effect fx market and usd pair gbp/usd...please if you could

hello
this thing about NFP+downgrades etc..is a bit confusing
i remember bbmac posting something about NFP: if release would have been good for USD market would have reacted opposite in a risk appetite mode.
anyway, about what you ask i dont have a clear idea. recently i trade every day with eyes focused on price action near main levels n trying to understand what market is doing, and trust me... it is enough work to do.
correlations between currencies and dow jones, gold, equities etc.. i find them hard and im always wrong! (friday i thought dow jones was going up lolz)
friday have been a good teaching day: better to print calendar on a paper just to remember time of news. near it switch to faster TF, n trade market action. i dont care anymore a lot about colours of data
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #285,891
  • Aug 6, 2011 7:40pm Aug 6, 2011 7:40pm
Recently started FX trading & one of my first trades was short GBPUSD late on Friday @ 1.6390, looking like a baptism of fire after news on Friday night from US downgrade. Understand charts though trying to understanding how much GBP could go up by on the open?? Thanks in advance for anyone who has thoughts on this
  • #285,892
  • Edited 2:18am Aug 7, 2011 1:53am | Edited 2:18am
With present fundamental tuormoils lots of things may happen but ignoring it & care to chart only .

usdx higher tf pa possible . http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post4845354

gu limited upside spike to fall further down , 6193 hold may up next leg but may breaks with turmoils & more correction possible with same up next .gu is most resistance to tank down further now & hold up nicely so far in a bull flag .

eu views also remain more or less same, just a spike up possible .
fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #285,893
  • Aug 7, 2011 3:01am Aug 7, 2011 3:01am
Quoting fontu
With present fundamental tuormoils lots of things may happen but ignoring it & care to chart only .

usdx higher tf pa possible . http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post4845354

gu limited upside spike to fall further down , 6193 hold may up next leg but may breaks with turmoils & more correction possible with same up next .gu is most resistance to tank down further now & hold up nicely so far in a bull flag .

eu views also remain more or less same, just a spike up possible .
fontu
i always like your charts and anylysis fontu thank you
  • #285,894
  • Aug 7, 2011 4:18am Aug 7, 2011 4:18am
Quoting fxjawn
i always like your charts and anylysis fontu thank you
Thanks , just to care monday open only , otherwise all ok perhaps .
important week ahead .
lets see what actually .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #285,895
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:36am Aug 7, 2011 6:36am
london oh london.......

Inserted Video
not euphoria follower
  • #285,896
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:37am Aug 7, 2011 6:37am
Quoting fontu
Thanks , just to care monday open only , otherwise all ok perhaps .
important week ahead .
lets see what actually .
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #285,897
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:38am Aug 7, 2011 6:38am
Quoting iqyu5an
london oh london.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnfdrUnFe8c

yeah was watching this on the news..seems it is taking coverage more than the debt crisis
  • #285,898
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:40am Aug 7, 2011 6:40am
yeah bro...debt crisis, unemployment...etc etc make people so sensitive and easy to get stress........

Quoting nAVIN2007
yeah was watching this on the news..seems it is taking coverage more than the debt crisis
not euphoria follower
  • #285,899
  • Aug 7, 2011 8:07am Aug 7, 2011 8:07am
Quoting iqyu5an
yeah bro...debt crisis, unemployment...etc etc make people so sensitive and easy to get stress........
  • #285,900
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:43am Aug 7, 2011 10:43am
Quoting iqyu5an
london oh london.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnfdrUnFe8c
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
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