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USD/CHF

  • #2,541
  • Aug 5, 2011 11:26am Aug 5, 2011 11:26am
i think it is being guarded heavily....i was expecting low .75 high .74 today.....if there is going to be an intervention....expect some serious movement....dont wanna get caught....they arent going to play games.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #2,542
  • Aug 5, 2011 11:34am Aug 5, 2011 11:34am
Quoting bguguen
Whoa dude... i got a gap in USDCHF up at 0.8150....
Yes same here, but i took the habits of not trading gaps....look at the audusd gap around 0.9200

Can't tell why but i strongly believe in some kind of intervention to boost the chf pairs up....maybe based on the PA
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #2,543
  • Aug 5, 2011 11:36am Aug 5, 2011 11:36am
Quoting frothy
i think it is being guarded heavily....i was expecting low .75 high .74 today.....if there is going to be an intervention....expect some serious movement....dont wanna get caught....they arent going to play games.
you know what the shitty thing is?? SNB is famous for Hit the button on the dot intervention, no warning ahead.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #2,544
  • Aug 5, 2011 11:38am Aug 5, 2011 11:38am
Quoting kuroro001
Yes same here, but i took the habits of not trading gaps....look at the audusd gap around 0.9200

Can't tell why but i strongly believe in some kind of intervention to boost the chf pairs up....maybe based on the PA
You know whats worse? we dont know if we start moving back up on USDCHF or moving down on AUDUSD, where it would end up where the OB/OS status gets relieved... USDCHF hasnt retraced a bit like the AUDUSD does... soo expect a VERY VERY hefty intervention...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #2,545
  • Aug 5, 2011 11:46am Aug 5, 2011 11:46am
There is only one thing that is for sure. This Pair is in the midst of a strong downtrend. Nothing has changed that. You either go with the flow or refrain from entering.
  • #2,546
  • Aug 5, 2011 11:54am Aug 5, 2011 11:54am
Quoting kimd
I don't think intervention will happen any time soon, although they have hinted at it. I just think there's support at 7600 which is where my long is.
i was brave opening it a 0,7587
it seems to work so far
  • #2,547
  • Aug 5, 2011 11:57am Aug 5, 2011 11:57am
Quoting Astroman
There is only one thing that is for sure. This Pair is in the midst of a strong downtrend. Nothing has changed that. You either go with the flow or refrain from entering.
I trade what I see on my charts and r:r, and it works well enough for me. Its obvious the trend is down, but I wouldn't sell at this level.
  • #2,548
  • Aug 5, 2011 12:00pm Aug 5, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting Astroman
There is only one thing that is for sure. This Pair is in the midst of a strong downtrend. Nothing has changed that. You either go with the flow or refrain from entering.
Selling at the bottom is suicidal... If this is a big down trend id rather sell on a pull back but on RECORD lows... id prefer to find a nice reversal to play...

yep i heard that alot... mainly from 95% of the trader who think its better to RIDE with the big bus...... not a good idea... there are ALWAYS people to Sell when you BUY.. THAT is the market itself, so no point trying to spill your trade idea by knowing the best way to trade is to follow the market...

me I LOVE trading psych levels, oh levels like 1.4400 0.7800, etc fixed numbers, they are where big boys love to drive the market to hunt for stops and once these stop hunts, trade to your advantage easy scalp 10-20 pips when these gets hit... and fails to break further... thats how i make money and my account looks really healthy
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #2,549
  • Aug 5, 2011 12:01pm Aug 5, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting kimd
I trade what I see on my charts and r:r, and it works well enough for me. Its obvious the trend is down, but I wouldn't sell at this level.
I hear ya.

On August 10 I will be setting my exit point very tight.

The following week I think we will see a move to the upside.

But so far this has been a very good trade.
  • #2,550
  • Aug 5, 2011 12:58pm Aug 5, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting bguguen
Selling at the bottom is suicidal... If this is a big down trend id rather sell on a pull back but on RECORD lows... id prefer to find a nice reversal to play...

yep i heard that alot... mainly from 95% of the trader who think its better to RIDE with the big bus...... not a good idea... there are ALWAYS people to Sell when you BUY.. THAT is the market itself, so no point trying to spill your trade idea by knowing the best way to trade is to follow the market...

me I LOVE trading psych levels, oh levels like 1.4400 0.7800, etc fixed numbers,...
yes, that's why I bought at 0,7587 and made almost 100 pips in two hours
if stops are close and in good amount, be sure they will go for them just to hit them, and afterwards reverse
  • #2,551
  • Aug 5, 2011 1:32pm Aug 5, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting pipfarm
What happened to all the retail traders then? LOL
Even more are going long from what I'm seeing on sentiment. It's a case of it can't possibly go lower syndrome plus they think the Swiss bank is about to intervene. Which they probably will but at what level is the question. The ratio is 71% long positions on Oanda
  • #2,552
  • Aug 5, 2011 2:25pm Aug 5, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting ettrader
Even more are going long from what I'm seeing on sentiment. It's a case of it can't possibly go lower syndrome plus they think the Swiss bank is about to intervene. Which they probably will but at what level is the question. The ratio is 71% long positions on Oanda

Lets wait and see, im inclined not to follow retail traders sentiment as its usually wrong, retails have been calling longs for ages now and each time they do they get hammered ,on the other hand this trend has to either end at some point or make a large correction at some point,im still holding my short.

I tend not to listen to news or rumours the market will show its hand when its time to go long.


pipfarm
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #2,553
  • Aug 6, 2011 4:35am Aug 6, 2011 4:35am
heavy short position on chf
long 3.5 lots cad/chf, 2 lots aud/chf, 1.5 lots eur/chf
was looking for a rather big and rapid retracement
now with the downgrading thing of US, what should i do with these positions? Anyone has a clue what would be probably the impact on these pairs next week(s)?
thank you
  • #2,554
  • Aug 6, 2011 5:08am Aug 6, 2011 5:08am
any view on opening price for usdchf on monday morning?
  • #2,555
  • Aug 6, 2011 12:34pm Aug 6, 2011 12:34pm
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #2,556
  • Aug 7, 2011 12:18am Aug 7, 2011 12:18am
I'm also planning to go short first thing monday. Can anyone see any reason not to?
Surely this whole week will be filled with dumping of USD.
  • #2,557
  • Aug 7, 2011 1:42am Aug 7, 2011 1:42am
Quoting olalalala
heavy short position on chf
long 3.5 lots cad/chf, 2 lots aud/chf, 1.5 lots eur/chf
was looking for a rather big and rapid retracement
now with the downgrading thing of US, what should i do with these positions? Anyone has a clue what would be probably the impact on these pairs next week(s)?
thank you
the question is, why dont you spread the risk?
never be sure the market goes with you, I hope it will anyway
  • #2,558
  • Aug 7, 2011 3:54am Aug 7, 2011 3:54am
Hi, I don't usually trade CHF so im not accustomed to its particular dynamics, so I was wondering what the locals think about how to play this out. It seems the most logical pair to play off the downgrade, along with gold which the Chinese should buy more into if they see too much risk in dollar losses.
  • #2,559
  • Aug 7, 2011 4:08am Aug 7, 2011 4:08am
Quoting fammira
the question is, why dont you spread the risk?
never be sure the market goes with you, I hope it will anyway
i know it's risky but these pairs have been dropping insanely past few weeks...time to retrace i hope
  • #2,560
  • Aug 7, 2011 4:16am Aug 7, 2011 4:16am
Im long multiple positions of
Chf
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