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EUR/CHF

  • #1,021
  • Aug 5, 2011 4:15am Aug 5, 2011 4:15am
Quoting Jazznos
And there i was thinking that intervention would hold! Or they would do it again like they said... CRAP!!! that high was real nice time to buy huh? Ah well, you can only do what makes sense at the time...
there was no intervention....intervention miserably failed last year and SNB will not likely do it again
the spike on wednesday was due to the fact that SNB cut LIBOR rates and, most important, announced they are about to put more liquidity in the market.

chf is still strong, but it SEEMS to be not far from a top, after all fundamentals should come out eventually, with EUR interest rate differential to be supportive on more dips
  • #1,022
  • Aug 5, 2011 4:19am Aug 5, 2011 4:19am
Quoting fammira
there was no intervention....intervention miserably failed last year and SNB will not likely do it again
the spike on wednesday was due to the fact that SNB cut LIBOR rates and, most important, announced they are about to put more liquidity in the market.

chf is still strong, but it SEEMS to be not far from a top, after all fundamentals should come out eventually, with EUR interest rate differential to be supportive on more dips

weak income from tourism (summer holidays) .. worse quarterly GDP in the next period?
  • #1,023
  • Aug 5, 2011 4:28am Aug 5, 2011 4:28am
Quoting fammira
there was no intervention....intervention miserably failed last year and SNB will not likely do it again
the spike on wednesday was due to the fact that SNB cut LIBOR rates and, most important, announced they are about to put more liquidity in the market.

chf is still strong, but it SEEMS to be not far from a top, after all fundamentals should come out eventually, with EUR interest rate differential to be supportive on more dips
They WILL intervene. They don't have other options because otherwise it won't last long until there is nothing to intervene for.
  • #1,024
  • Aug 5, 2011 4:42am Aug 5, 2011 4:42am
Quoting Xaron
They WILL intervene. They don't have other options because otherwise it won't last long until there is nothing to intervene for.
if intervening is the only option they have, then why they did not do it at 1.40, 30, 20, 10....?

Boj is much much bigger and with much more available liquidity than SNB, yet on March they intervened with the support of ECB and FED.
watch the result.

Intervention is effective in the short term, but it can't work alone in the long term.
That said, I think that EUR has a big advantage now, that is the higher interest rate, as well as the support of many central banks buying it in the name of diversification.

this should limit the downside in the cross, so market needs to work it out itself, based on fundamentals and despite any intervention expectation.

I believe that BoJ is continuing to intervene, mainly just to give a signal to the market, and because they are aware that there is not such a rates differential among USA and Japan, with interest poised to be low for long
  • #1,025
  • Aug 5, 2011 5:08am Aug 5, 2011 5:08am
Hi Traders.
My yesterday retracement plan was denied after price broke below 1.0800
However Asian session has build up stronger support at around 1.0750 zone and brought my scenario back to life.
Note, that below 1.0750 price quickly bounced up finding many buyers and since then price has been consequently moving on higher highs and higher lows.
Maybe I am crazy but I am looking now for a good entry point to go LONG around 1.0800 and looking forward to target @ 1.1000
If anybody thinks I can make a horrible mistake, let me know.

Certainly today’s NFP will either help or break up my plans.
It's 11am GMT...
I DON'T enter now. I am waiting for a SET UP and CONFIRMATION.
We'll see how it works later ;-)

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  • #1,026
  • Aug 5, 2011 5:28am Aug 5, 2011 5:28am
Quoting fammira
if intervening is the only option they have, then why they did not do it at 1.40, 30, 20, 10....?
They lost the first rounds. I agree, intervention usually only works short term, BUT the current levels will hurt Switzerland very, very big. CHF is NOT safe haven like all say. As soon as the markets grasp that there is NO safe haven out there anymore the CHF will drop like a stone. Switzerland has 8 million people, nice guys indeed, but it's too small to save the world.
  • #1,027
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:13am Aug 5, 2011 6:13am
Quoting Xaron
They lost the first rounds. I agree, intervention usually only works short term, BUT the current levels will hurt Switzerland very, very big. CHF is NOT safe haven like all say. As soon as the markets grasp that there is NO safe haven out there anymore the CHF will drop like a stone. Switzerland has 8 million people, nice guys indeed, but it's too small to save the world.
Size of the country doesn't really matter much, it's the stability that's attached to the value of the currency that makes it a safe investment and the more people believe in it the more appreciation it gets.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #1,028
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:25am Aug 5, 2011 6:25am
Quoting Xaron
They WILL intervene. They don't have other options because otherwise it won't last long until there is nothing to intervene for.
Of course they will....the thing is "when". First step of the process was to lower rates.
Now if NFP is really bad the CHF pairs will dip further down...and i guess it'll be the time for the SNB to intervene.
EURCHF is at the parity soon and USDCHF won't exist in a couple of months...oh god lol
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,029
  • Edited 9:40am Aug 5, 2011 7:54am | Edited 9:40am
Well, 20 minutes after Non-Farm payroll, enough for markets to calm down I jumped into the train and went LONG. Yeah…
NFP was positive so it gives more strength to my trade. We’ll see…
I keep very tight stop loss, little bit below short term support line.
If my pair hits first target @ 1.0900 I’ll close half of my position.
I’ll let the rest run free over weekend as my stops will be set on breakeven…

Update
3:39pm :-( Stop Loss Triggered. Fortunately at breakeven

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  • #1,030
  • Aug 5, 2011 11:23am Aug 5, 2011 11:23am
Quoting Xaron
They lost the first rounds. I agree, intervention usually only works short term, BUT the current levels will hurt Switzerland very, very big. CHF is NOT safe haven like all say. As soon as the markets grasp that there is NO safe haven out there anymore the CHF will drop like a stone. Switzerland has 8 million people, nice guys indeed, but it's too small to save the world.
this is your idea, and is probably due to your long position.
but CHF (and JPY) are safe heavens, and Swiss in particular, is the "small" country where most of the world money goes in recession times

and prices are the proove

I do agree that CHF is overvalued, but if you compare Eurozone problem with Swiss sound condition, we can with no doubt say that EUR is overvalued as well

I can tell you that I am long on EURCHF at 1.09 and even opened a long on USDCHF today after the old low has been breached.But I am aware that CHF drop will require time, rather than interventions
  • #1,031
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:49am Aug 7, 2011 11:49am
Hi Traders.
Did you have good weekend? I bet you won't have Monday morning the same.

Guys, I'm wondering how will markets react after S&P downgraded USA credit ratings.
The worst would be first couple of so called before-session tradings hours.
Liquidity is then very small and it can affect many traders, escpecially those having opened positions pending over weekend and their stop-loss orders could be badly affected.
I am far from being a panicker, but I am expecting another earthquake Monday morning. An earthquake could be a massive GAP on most of curriencies, let alone indexes and stocks.
I have experienced similar situations in the past and for those trading intra-day and swing trade such weekend news are just "pain in the ass(ets).

Why they didn't wait till fkcing Monday?
It looks like rating agencies rule the trading world...
Many new interesting articles on FF.

----
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  • #1,032
  • Aug 7, 2011 12:07pm Aug 7, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting halkins
Hi Traders.
Did you have good weekend? I bet you won't have Monday morning the same.

Guys, I'm wondering how will markets react after S&P downgraded USA credit ratings.
The worst would be first couple of so called before-session tradings hours.
Liquidity is then very small and it can affect many traders, escpecially those having opened positions pending over weekend and their stop-loss orders could be badly affected.
I am far from being a panicker, but I am expecting another earthquake Monday morning. An earthquake could be a massive...
I woke up 2 hours ago. I slept a little longer today so I am prepared to stay awake for the next 24 hours, because I expect very dramatic moves in all pairs.

Good luck to everyone!
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #1,033
  • Aug 7, 2011 12:09pm Aug 7, 2011 12:09pm
I'm expecting a SNB intervention, CHF is going crazy....

EUR/CHF closing: 1.0956. Current on XE.com: 1.0764
GBP/CHF closing: 1.2575. Current on XE.com: 1.2358
USD/CHF closing: 0.76723. Current on XE.com: 0.75208
  • #1,034
  • Aug 8, 2011 1:13am Aug 8, 2011 1:13am
this is fucking crazy!
  • #1,035
  • Aug 8, 2011 11:41am Aug 8, 2011 11:41am
Quoting Xaron
They lost the first rounds. I agree, intervention usually only works short term, BUT the current levels will hurt Switzerland very, very big. CHF is NOT safe haven like all say. As soon as the markets grasp that there is NO safe haven out there anymore the CHF will drop like a stone. Switzerland has 8 million people, nice guys indeed, but it's too small to save the world.
I had told you to keep stop at entry

start buying 150 - 200 pips lower and be happy

SNB will not intervene, but market is too long CHF and will simply reverse by itself
  • #1,036
  • Aug 8, 2011 3:42pm Aug 8, 2011 3:42pm
The EUR/CHF continues to decline for another 700 pips. Just today at 4:40p.m Eastern time, it's hovering around 1.07 level. Watch out for late Monday actions, correct me if I'm wrong but for now, I stay in the side line until wait for to sell it.

Happy trading!
  • #1,037
  • Aug 9, 2011 3:45am Aug 9, 2011 3:45am
Quoting Klforexr
The EUR/CHF continues to decline for another 700 pips. Just today at 4:40p.m Eastern time, it's hovering around 1.07 level. Watch out for late Monday actions, correct me if I'm wrong but for now, I stay in the side line until wait for to sell it.

Happy trading!
I think weakness can be bought around 1.05 - 1.06 to start
  • #1,038
  • Aug 9, 2011 4:16am Aug 9, 2011 4:16am
1,0482!

Can it go under 1,0000?
Will anyone have a job in CH next month?
  • #1,039
  • Aug 9, 2011 4:35am Aug 9, 2011 4:35am
perfect, bought below 1.05 and keep stop at entry

the stop hunts should be over, maybe another one before or after FOMC

my suggested level came, let's watch where it goes from here
  • #1,040
  • Aug 9, 2011 4:41am Aug 9, 2011 4:41am
Why fight the trend buying? I agree with central bank intervening its no longer the 1 way bet that it has been of late but 4hr chart still clearly on lower highs, lower lows.
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