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EUR/CHF

  • #981
  • Aug 3, 2011 1:11am Aug 3, 2011 1:11am
Doesn't seems like the Euro rally going to stop anytime soon.
  • #982
  • Aug 3, 2011 1:24am Aug 3, 2011 1:24am
Quoting Jt1982
Doesn't seems like the Euro rally going to stop anytime soon.
Maybe now?
  • #983
  • Aug 3, 2011 2:00am Aug 3, 2011 2:00am
suisse has to play the inflation game too,other wise they get struggled by euro and dollar

we should close the gap from 07.25
  • #984
  • Aug 3, 2011 2:29am Aug 3, 2011 2:29am
Guys, if somebody likes forex rollercoaster EURCHF is a perfect pair for trading.

The pair downtrend stays intact however huge volatility is still on its way…
Honestly, SNB intervention was nothing unexpected. Very dear frank is not good for Swiss economy. Only swiss holidaymakers enjoy cheap hols.
I have experienced loads of SNB interventions in the past and they always used to do it out of the blue. It's always "unexpected".
Market was awaiting some intervention, only nobody knew when...

OK. Today we’ll have ADP Non-Farm Employment and again, good news for American economy will hit EURCHF even further north, bad news for USA will draw down EURCHF to its previous lows.

Whatever the news we can still expect massive ups and downs, and this is the only thing sure about EURCHF.
So guys, enjoy your rollercoaster ride, while I’ll stay beside and watch ;-)))
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  • #985
  • Aug 3, 2011 2:49am Aug 3, 2011 2:49am
Quoting halkins
Guys, if somebody likes forex rollercoaster EURCHF is a perfect pair for trading.

The pair downtrend stays intact however huge volatility is still on its way…
Honestly, SNB intervention was nothing unexpected. Very dear frank is not good for Swiss economy. Only swiss holidaymakers enjoy cheap hols.
[font=Verdana][size=2]I have experienced loads of SNB interventions in the past and they always used to do it out of the blue. It's...
Thanks for that... Good to know
  • #986
  • Aug 3, 2011 7:35am Aug 3, 2011 7:35am
intervention my foot

http://i54.photobucket.com/albums/g9...o/euro3-30.gif
  • #987
  • Aug 3, 2011 10:20am Aug 3, 2011 10:20am
Quoting hindustani
intervention my foot

He he after just a HINT of intervention EUR rose 2.5% ... this is the proof of very, very sensitive & nervous EUR/CHF market.
  • #988
  • Aug 3, 2011 12:47pm Aug 3, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting Jazznos
I use about 1.5%, so its not horrible.. but then i went and added in more shorts while it was still going up, thinking they would be safe, but alas all taken... :-( About -5% today as a result...

Didnt stick to my rule of 2 losses and out, cos i was sure they would work out in the long run... Now im wondering if its time to go again, but fingers still burning.... and who knows WTF its gonna do...
I am so sorry for your trade, Jazznos. The old saying says “the biggest enemy of a trader is… himself.

It took me much more time to develop my trading discipline then to learn all chart & candle tricks.
For instance I have learnt to close half of my position when I am in profits. This way I secure myself from sudden trend reversal and I do not consider this as wasting of money.
I have also noticed that when I was trading with small amounts I was nearly always winning, while trading with big money, emotions took control over me and I was making stupid thing after another…
Just relax and try again tomorrow.
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  • #989
  • Aug 3, 2011 4:25pm Aug 3, 2011 4:25pm
Quoting halkins
I am so sorry for your trade, Jazznos. The old saying says “the biggest enemy of a trader is… himself.

Thanks bro, its cool, just one of those things. If i had kept one of my positions at BE I would still be in now...! Dont worry Im not a n00b, but only been trading with half decent money a couple of weeks, so like you said, it will affect your emotions a lot more and thats the next game to master. Just so frustrating to be up $1200 and end up down $400 30 mins later! I'll get over it
  • #990
  • Aug 4, 2011 6:21am Aug 4, 2011 6:21am
That wasn't intervention. What was it...?

I think we'll see real intervention when swiss economy collapse around 1.00, 5000+ pips in a day
  • #991
  • Aug 4, 2011 6:44am Aug 4, 2011 6:44am
Quoting mccoy
That wasn't intervention. What was it...?

I think we'll see real intervention when swiss economy collapse around 1.00, 5000+ pips in a day
Actually it was only so called „verbal” intervention.
I’d prefer to name it “a threat” from Swiss government saying;
Leave us alone you bloody speculators!
Stop buying our currency or we will open all our bank safes and change this to euros and dollars and yens and change interest rates and…
Scary, isn’t?

But seriously, if price will still keep on going down a real bank intervention is highly possible. No question asked.

-----------------
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  • #992
  • Aug 4, 2011 7:00am Aug 4, 2011 7:00am
rumor has it the snb is pissed right off....some serious intervention is coming down the line....if they can get the politics worked out to do it. IT would of been done a long time ago..but nobody wants to suffer the consequences if it fails......either way....I think it is safer to hide in usd.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #993
  • Aug 4, 2011 8:10am Aug 4, 2011 8:10am
yep, SNB has to definitely take the gloves off, and fight with iron fists.

Enough of chicken-fights.... its time to go for the kill!

We are not in kansas anymore, this is war!


this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #994
  • Aug 4, 2011 8:57am Aug 4, 2011 8:57am
Remember guys, tomorrow we have very important Non-Farm Employment and it could have a huge impact on all pairs, indexes and trades.
Anything can happen.
Non-Farm will definitely set up a future trend for next week or two.
------------------------
Good news for US economy and EURCHF goes up, bad news and you guys can wave bye-bye and forget about 1,100 level.
Welcome to 1,0600 zone.
If EURCHF hits 1.0600 we can expect ECB to make us another tricky intervention.
------------------------
The strenght of any move depends on difference between forecasts and real data.

So traders, take your pills and enjoy... ;-)))

-
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  • #995
  • Aug 4, 2011 9:27am Aug 4, 2011 9:27am
Quoting halkins
Remember guys, tomorrow we have very important Non-Farm Employment and it could have a huge impact on all pairs, indexes and trades.
Anything can happen.
Non-Farm will definitely set up a future trend for next week or two.
------------------------
Good news for US economy and EURCHF goes up, bad news and you guys can wave bye-bye and forget about 1,100 level.
Welcome to 1,0600 zone.
If EURCHF hits 1.0600 we can expect ECB to make us another tricky intervention.
------------------------
The strenght...
I agree! watch out......and if bernanke hints at qe3 next week.....woooooooaaaahh heading to par... LOL
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #996
  • Aug 4, 2011 10:33am Aug 4, 2011 10:33am
Quoting halkins
Remember guys, tomorrow we have very important Non-Farm Employment and it could have a huge impact on all pairs, indexes and trades.
Anything can happen.
Non-Farm will definitely set up a future trend for next week or two.
------------------------
Good news for US economy and EURCHF goes up, bad news and you guys can wave bye-bye and forget about 1,100 level.
Welcome to 1,0600 zone.
If EURCHF hits 1.0600 we can expect ECB to make us another tricky intervention.
------------------------
The strenght...
I dont agree. I've seen enough NFPs that had no big effect, or were already priced in.

Its always about expectations. Nobody expects wonders from tommorows NFPs.... so if they manipulate the data to cheat then we might see a big move. But honestly... trust has completely vanished, we have open currency war.

You really think, NFP is that important in this context?

I laugh my ass off when I hear some currency experts still proclaim, the importance of america as THE BIGGEST ECONOMY of the world, blabla.... bull****.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #997
  • Aug 4, 2011 11:01am Aug 4, 2011 11:01am
Quoting georgem
I dont agree. I've seen enough NFPs that had no big effect, or were already priced in.
(...)
You really think, NFP is that important in this context?
I laugh my ass off when I hear some currency experts still proclaim, the importance of america as THE BIGGEST ECONOMY of the world, blabla.... bull****.
Fairly I do not consider US as “The Biggest Economy” but as a trader I am definitely aware of US data having a huge influence on most of my trades. When Ben Bernanke scratches his head, either I loose or make more money… and I have no bloody idea why is this happening. That’s the way it is.
Personally I think more important for the world is how China is doing now… as those guys manufacture majority of world’s products. Hence, most of our laptops we are working on now carry “made in China” labels. ;-))) isn’t it?

So… if Non-Farm Payrolls will be oscillating around its forecasts, it could really have minor impact on the market. But if it will differ significantly, far from its forecasts, it could be another earthquake.
Traders are emotional, actually they trade emotions, not real money.
So whether I like it or not, I do what masses do…
;-)
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  • #998
  • Aug 4, 2011 11:09am Aug 4, 2011 11:09am
Quoting halkins
So whether I like it or not, I do what masses do…
;-)
Therein I agree again.

Right now I just dont see big importance in NFP, because damage is already done, and government has shown REPEATEDLY it will do what it can to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich, and make it very difficult for the middle class (who actually creates jobs) to conduct business and grow! Thats why the dollar looses value consistantly.

I am waiting to see something truly spectacular like the FED raising its interst rate or something....

Change in policy. Not more of the same...

But ofcourse what I just said is very longterm fundamental view... But from the view of a daytrader you might be right about short term effect of tommorows NFP...

but lol look at short term effect of the two interventions we had yesterday....

of course, play the game right and make some shortterm pips. Good luck!
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #999
  • Aug 4, 2011 11:19am Aug 4, 2011 11:19am
Quoting georgem
But ofcourse what I just said is very longterm... But from the view of a daytrader you might be right about short term effect of tommorows NFP...

but lol look at short term effect of the two interventions we had yesterday....
Ha ha, yeap… you’re right, georgem.

Today ECB press conference and J.C. Trichet speech made me 2.5-3% profits in just one day on USDNOK.
For me (day/swing) trader it had a “huge impact”, as not everyday I am making so easily 3% in couple of hours…
You can have a look on this trade on another FF thread “Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)”

-
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  • #1,000
  • Aug 4, 2011 12:41pm Aug 4, 2011 12:41pm
Guys the SNB hasn't even really intervened yet. They will flood the market as if there is no tomorrow. They don't care about inflation anymore. It looks like the end of the world has been priced in. So NFP can almost likely only surprise on the up side.
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