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Circular Trendlines

  • #841
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:02am Jul 28, 2011 12:02am
Since price action has decided to break lower than 4340 before making a upward movement to 4416, chances of it going higher are very slim, basically because the black circle has been broken too early, thereby nullifying any possible support at 4370 area. The 4370 area is becoming a resistance zone and further down movement will happen quickly.
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.JPG Size: 118 KB
  • #842
  • Jul 28, 2011 8:47am Jul 28, 2011 8:47am
The EUR has broken a important support level shown by the dotted black horizontal line. It will decend further to the vicinity of the red curve, which could be anywhere from 4050 to 3975. The interim support levels are shown by horizontal dotted lines where a slight reaction might happen at those levels, The most notable retracement will happen at the lows of 4000.
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  • #843
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:48am Jul 28, 2011 9:48am
If you havent shorted the EUR yet, you can wait a bit for another half an hour to see what happens, maybe we can get a higher high and a better spot to short this pair. For now on M1 is showing a slight bullish tendency. A breakout sell below 4280 is a better positioned strategy to go short.
  • #844
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:55am Jul 28, 2011 9:55am
If 4330 is reached, you need to stay out of putting sell order at market price.

At 4330-4340 the EUR is doing something else.

Rasing Pending orders below the second last low is the safest way to short such a market.


Quoting Kambooj
If you havent shorted the EUR yet, you can wait a bit for another half an hour to see what happens, maybe we can get a higher high and a better spot to short this pair. For now on M1 is showing a slight bullish tendency. A breakout sell below 4280 is a better positioned strategy to go short.
  • #845
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:03pm Jul 28, 2011 3:03pm
Here is another Update...
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  • #846
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:31am Jul 29, 2011 8:31am
As I am writing this, its getting broken, but have to see the extent of the break, because we could just be caught in a upward C wave, followed by a reversal, will have to wait on this one...
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  • #847
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:49am Jul 29, 2011 8:49am
Quoting Kambooj
As I am writing this, its getting broken, but have to see the extent of the break, because we could just be caught in a upward C wave, followed by a reversal, will have to wait on this one...
Hi
exactly brother
for me i have sell@4380
let's c
B back later
  • #848
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:01am Jul 29, 2011 9:01am
For a bearish scenario, 4402, could be the maximum stretch of this move
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  • #849
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:09am Jul 29, 2011 9:09am
Quoting Kambooj
For a bearish scenario, 4402, could be the maximum stretch of this move
it's bouncing now @ last week close on weekly chart which is 4380
Check weekly chart
b back after 2h
c u
  • #850
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:18am Jul 29, 2011 9:18am
A view from M1.
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  • #851
  • Jul 29, 2011 10:09am Jul 29, 2011 10:09am
Lack of a drop to 4320 region will push this slight bullish scenario to 4436...

Quoting Kambooj
A view from M1.
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  • #852
  • Jul 29, 2011 11:55am Jul 29, 2011 11:55am
Quoting egkid
it's bouncing now @ last week close on weekly chart which is 4380
Check weekly chart
b back after 2h
c u
Switch to 5 min chart want to c close under 4370 to let my position run
  • #853
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:44pm Jul 29, 2011 12:44pm
I am just trying to monitor the situation now. Behaviour is not reminicent of a downtrend scneario, and not entering any trades for 2 reasons:

1. Friday Afternoon
2. Blue trendlines

On a C wave rebound you usually dont have the shift shown by the blue trendlines happening. A downward angle of greater than 45 degrees, and preferably 80 degress is observed. Price Action which is going along a 45 degree angle (blue lines) upwards,

This is not good news for a bear scenario.

Entered a short at 4370 for 20 pips and staying aside now to see what happens. The boundaries of the dotted black circle and the red circle are candidates for support. If such a thing happens, then have to check higher time frames to see whether we have a temporary bullish scenario till the middle of next week.

Right now higher time frames are suggesting bearish outlook, but will have to wait for a more suitable trading position,


Quoting egkid
Switch to 5 min chart want to c close under 4370 to let my position run
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #854
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:01pm Jul 29, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting Kambooj
I am just trying to monitor the situation now. Behaviour is not reminicent of a downtrend scneario, and not entering any trades for 2 reasons:

1. Friday Afternoon
2. Blue trendlines

On a C wave rebound you usually dont have the shift shown by the blue trendlines happening. A downward angle of greater than 45 degrees, and preferably 80 degress is observed. Price Action which is going along a 45 degree angle (blue lines) upwards,

This is not good news for a bear scenario.

Entered a short at 4370 for 20 pips and staying aside now to see what...
I divided my positions so no worry
look to G/U if u trade it PA now 6440 and I'm IN
Sell@6440 Target 1.55xx
For E/U have 1 sell position@ 1.44 Target 1.34
Many will say I'm nuts But i trade my own chart and i know when i close it
  • #855
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:17pm Jul 29, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting egkid
I divided my positions so no worry
look to G/U if u trade it PA now 6440 and I'm IN
Sell@6440 Target 1.55xx
For E/U have 1 sell position@ 1.44 Target 1.34
Many will say I'm nuts But i trade my own chart and i know when i close it
U are the man....Im just looking for 1.41 to close out my 1.44's.....Could u elaborate on your "charts"
  • #856
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:29pm Jul 29, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting needpips
U are the man....Im just looking for 1.41 to close out my 1.44's.....Could u elaborate on your "charts"
Sorry My chart not clear now and have no time to do so
but if u asking why i target 1.34 i can answer u, is this ur question?
  • #857
  • Jul 31, 2011 11:26pm Jul 31, 2011 11:26pm
H2
Failure to make a decisive break of the 4350 region has introduced a slight bullish scenario for this pair till the next resistance level.
The next resistance level is around 4460-4470 region. A break of that resistance will land us at 4560.

Trend on the bigger time frame above H2 is a sell, but for the next 24 hours we might see a retest of 4500 region.

M15
Upward movement will find resistance at the vicinity of the center of the red circle. If the center is surpassed movement will go to the other side of the perimeter of the red circle.
If movement finds resistance at 4460 region and doesnt make a decisive break of that region, then we will start again on our downward track towards breaking the low of 4225.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #858
  • Aug 1, 2011 6:15pm Aug 1, 2011 6:15pm
Quoting egkid
I divided my positions so no worry
look to G/U if u trade it PA now 6440 and I'm IN
Sell@6440 Target 1.55xx
For E/U have 1 sell position@ 1.44 Target 1.34
Many will say I'm nuts But i trade my own chart and i know when i close it
Hi all
Happy Ramadan to all Muslims here
Positions still in play
Checking E/U Chart and 1.3690 Take my attention ,
weekly close under 4070 will confirm this view
C U
  • #859
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:35am Aug 2, 2011 8:35am
Thanks and same to you

Quoting egkid
Hi all
Happy Ramadan to all Muslims here
Positions still in play
Checking E/U Chart and 1.3690 Take my attention ,
weekly close under 4070 will confirm this view
C U
  • #860
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:36am Aug 2, 2011 8:36am
H2
On this time frame the drop that has started has the potential of reaching 3950, as long as it doesnt turn into a triangular formation of some sort or the other. The maximum retracement at the moment in a impulse scenario for the drop that started from 4450 is around 4280 before another series of drop happesns. Right now the motion is stuck in the center region of the red circle and it could agitate a bit between 4280 and 4170 before dipping further down.

M15
Motion has approached the south pole of the green circle, and this region might turn out to be a tough region to go downwards, for this reason a probable retracement to 4260 region exists that could help to generate further momentum to go downwards.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 67 KB
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