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USD/CHF

  • #2,361
  • Jul 25, 2011 12:16pm Jul 25, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting Astroman
Very short term I am Long.

Earlier Shorts closed out.

Debt ceiling deal will be reached.

Do not want to be Short right now it has fallen enough because of it and only because of it already.

Good for at least 150 Pips.

Very short term, less than a week maybe.

Then will we see the never ending downtrend continue?
__________________

same here.
Im long from 0.8026 and i think it was pretty good choice
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #2,362
  • Jul 25, 2011 12:45pm Jul 25, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting eqshack
same here.
Im long from 0.8026 and i think it was pretty good choice
I completely agree since I see double-dip scenario as quite likely (the other dip to low 0.80XX being today). Similar double-dip happened in Dec. 2008.

However there is still one little thing that bothers me. Anytime USDCHF comes near round numbers it almost always pierces through (sometimes only just, but still).

See March 2011 (piercing 0.9000), Nov. 2009 (1.0000), March 2008 (1.0000), Nov. 2007 (1.1000), Nov. 2006 (1.2000) and so on.

Well, we will just have to see.
  • #2,363
  • Jul 25, 2011 1:26pm Jul 25, 2011 1:26pm
Unfortuantely this pair can go down much longer than i can remain solvent... The USD side of the equation has much to do with the debt cieling( smoke and mirrors mainly) but a much deeper underlying problem with the fiat currency and mismanagement of spending. I do beleive however, this will be fixed and the USD will rally


The swiss frac will remain strong due to the fact it remains the European safe haven currency. The Euro is nowhere near off the hook with the recent EFSF bailout. Basically it just dumped the fate of the entire Euro nation on the backs of germany and germany alone. And now there are 82 million very efficient and very pissed of germans who know that any of the other countries across europe dont pull thier down weight then they are in deep shiza. Worst case scenario being if france goes under than over 50% of german GDP will be lost in bailout funds for them, effectively launching Germany into a depression they havent experienced since after WWI


Well on a good note, at least history shows angry germans are no threat to anyone



on a side note I WILL be looking for a deep retracement back up to Parity over the next 6 months or so. The obvious entry point will be around the .80
  • #2,364
  • Jul 25, 2011 1:42pm Jul 25, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting Wulfgar


Well on a good note, at least history shows angry germans are no threat to anyone.


Then again they had many reasons to be angry.
  • #2,365
  • Jul 25, 2011 2:56pm Jul 25, 2011 2:56pm
Quoting Astroman

Then will we see the never ending downtrend continue?
__________________
I think that the agreement would be a good catalyst for change in the trend
  • #2,366
  • Jul 25, 2011 3:00pm Jul 25, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting pipfarm
If i had to guess ill take option 3.5 which is already sucked all the longs in and about to blow the lid off this thing and head off to a new low below .80777

pip

Looks like option 3.5 was correct.


pip
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #2,367
  • Jul 25, 2011 3:45pm Jul 25, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting pipfarm
Looks like option 3.5 was correct.
pip
Previous low was 0.8022 (18/07/2011), todays new low was 0.8019. So far looks more like double-dip (option (1) from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post4795938). So far.
  • #2,368
  • Jul 25, 2011 4:22pm Jul 25, 2011 4:22pm
Today is an aberration due to U.S. debt ceiling talks which will be resolved by Wednesday.

For the most part, as usual, the market has overreacted.

It will be resolved with all losses being undone and then some.
  • #2,369
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:44pm Jul 25, 2011 5:44pm
i have small long from 80.40 ..i moved my stop to 80.28 ..so i can go to bed now without to worry, maybe i catch one of these dubios 120pips rollover spikes
  • #2,370
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:03am Jul 26, 2011 12:03am
Today for the first time it will go below 0.8
be careful, don't over leverage on trades long or short.
  • #2,371
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:25am Jul 26, 2011 12:25am
I'm eager to see the strougle trough 0.70ties now.
It's really getting funny, not angry
Yet in the long turn, I'll buy. Can not personally betray the US, just a stuped principle that will eat my ears
  • #2,372
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:31am Jul 26, 2011 12:31am
Quoting gamemorph
I'm eager to see the strougle trough 0.70ties now.
It's really getting funny, not angry
Yet in the long turn, I'll buy. Can not personally betray the US, just a stuped principle that will eat my ears

go short the EURCHF then... or anything against the CHF...lol
  • #2,373
  • Jul 26, 2011 2:51am Jul 26, 2011 2:51am
hm, 0.80 holds for now en
let's see the second wave
I wouldn't feel confortable with short position these days, waiting for another long during the 70's
But hedging is a good idea indeed, I need to refine my strategy for such action
  • #2,374
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:41am Jul 26, 2011 5:41am
Quoting Spik
Previous low was 0.8022 (18/07/2011), todays new low was 0.8019. So far looks more like double-dip (option (1) from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post4795938). So far.

Cannot be a double bottom unless there is a w shape set of swings with the top of the w broken to confirm so option 3.5 is correct.


pip
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #2,375
  • Jul 26, 2011 6:13am Jul 26, 2011 6:13am
so is going long, buying? and short selling? if so i went long at .8018. climbing as of now. I really need to learn this fibonacci and more.
  • #2,376
  • Jul 26, 2011 6:27am Jul 26, 2011 6:27am
Waiting for the hourly descending triangle to break
  • #2,377
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:05pm Jul 26, 2011 4:05pm
This level is going to b tested (hopefully) again. The H4 is really not bullish (momentum way to high) but i'm going to invest in this mofo. I'm long from 0.8016. Will buy around 0.78 if it drops down there. No stops set. I can take it ). Don't wanna miss the bottom - if there's any. If 0.75 is going to b broken - the us of a is history! word. happyy trading xD
  • #2,378
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:09pm Jul 26, 2011 4:09pm
i'm not in yet -watching the m15 closely - will hit by the next retracement - BIG TIME!
  • #2,379
  • Jul 26, 2011 10:10pm Jul 26, 2011 10:10pm
Hi, I'm new to forex. I read that the forecast for the KOF Economic Barometer will be 2.12 compared to last month's 2.23. I just want to confirm that based on this information, USD/CHF will go low. Hope more experienced traders can advise as I can't start a new thread on the rookie's page. Thanks!
  • #2,380
  • Jul 26, 2011 10:50pm Jul 26, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting pipfarm
Cannot be a double bottom unless there is a w shape set of swings with the top of the w broken to confirm so option 3.5 is correct.


pip
Agreed. We continue to drown in the mud. No lifesaving device found.
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