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Circular Trendlines

  • #801
  • Jul 21, 2011 9:15am Jul 21, 2011 9:15am
Quoting Kambooj
Although the EUR attempted to go upwards, but the chosen path of upward movement is posing its limitation on the strength of this pair. A sell opportunity for this pair should present itself sometime soon. If the EUR had chosen a alternate path such as the one presented in a previous post:


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post4797575


It would have the opportunity to gain strength along the way. But the current path thats its on right now is approaching a weak area of the circle, and it will prove difficult...
That looks like PACMAN!!!!
  • #802
  • Jul 22, 2011 12:38am Jul 22, 2011 12:38am
H4
The super thrust of the EUR will end around the 4630-4700 region on the other side of the perimeter of the black circle. The decisive break of the red trendline has set the stage for more upward movement from this pair. Once the blue straight trendline is reached we will get a retracement back to the red line.

M15
Upward movement will end around 4480-4520 region and a retracement back to 4320 could take effect at that time.

M5
Buy anywhere in between 4370-4390 zone
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.JPG Size: 86 KB
  • #803
  • Jul 22, 2011 5:07am Jul 22, 2011 5:07am
I am seeing this resistance above 1.4436 and some sort of tight range below that, with indecision.

Just to make it very basic, how do you apply circles to that ?

Your charts show great experience and ( to quote your post #1 ) I think I can learn a lot if I expand my " trendline " and " horizontal line " point of view with curved lines.

I am very much a pattern trader and all patterns work around your circles ( I noticed ). Very interesting !

Thank you, please continue.

Edit : chart EURUSD 15min






____________
michael
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-07-22 11h51_27_circles.jpg Size: 143 KB
Be like water.
  • #804
  • Jul 22, 2011 6:02am Jul 22, 2011 6:02am
we think there's trend up until 4490 before trend reflection until 4290 again so take care
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7-22-2011 1-56-25 PM.jpg Size: 146 KB
  • #805
  • Jul 22, 2011 8:28am Jul 22, 2011 8:28am
The low of 4380 should not have been broken in a bullish scenario, because the upper straight trendline is the maximum downward move in a uptrend scenario for the EUR.

Its recommended to stay aside to see what the EUR is intending to do.

The only way that the 4380 should have been broken its a reversal case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 56 KB
  • #806
  • Jul 22, 2011 8:43am Jul 22, 2011 8:43am
Here You Go...


Quoting msmarple
I am seeing this resistance above 1.4436 and some sort of tight range below that, with indecision.

Just to make it very basic, how do you apply circles to that ?

Your charts show great experience and ( to quote your post #1 ) I think I can learn a lot if I expand my " trendline " and " horizontal line " point of view with curved lines.

I am very much a pattern trader and all patterns work around your circles ( I noticed ). Very interesting !

Thank you, please continue.

Edit : chart EURUSD 15min






____________
michael
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MSMarple.jpg Size: 184 KB
  • #807
  • Jul 22, 2011 8:48am Jul 22, 2011 8:48am
The drop happening does not jive well with a breakout of the solid red trendline in the following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post4801439

The last line of defense is 4310 region, that could possibly be considered still bullish, but below that means that all we got yesterday was a false flag. Thats why its imperative to stay out for a while to see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #808
  • Jul 22, 2011 9:05am Jul 22, 2011 9:05am
Heavy barrell roll combined with strong push on the trendlines downwards is creating a highly questionable environment for any bullish scenario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 65 KB
  • #809
  • Jul 22, 2011 9:24am Jul 22, 2011 9:24am
Quoting Kambooj
Heavy barrell roll combined with strong push on the trendlines downwards is creating a highly questionable environment for any bullish scenario.
have u worked out a probability yet? It seems your method is lacking the ability to forecast above 50%....I absolutely believe u are on the cusp of a great tool, just asking how it can evolve?
  • #810
  • Jul 22, 2011 9:52am Jul 22, 2011 9:52am
Still the EUR is in extremely suspicious territory for a bullish scenario
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 54 KB
  • #811
  • Jul 22, 2011 9:58am Jul 22, 2011 9:58am
I will keep on working on it to make it better. I do admit that trying to catch false breaks is the hardest thing with this method.


Quoting needpips
have u worked out a probability yet? It seems your method is lacking the ability to forecast above 50%....I absolutely believe u are on the cusp of a great tool, just asking how it can evolve?
  • #812
  • Jul 24, 2011 8:00pm Jul 24, 2011 8:00pm
This pair will continue to go upwards to 4550 zone

At 4500 situation can become unstable for going long and a retracement should begin, anywhere in between 4500-4550

Since a drop could happen to 4314 at the boundary of the blue circle, its best to wait for the openning of the EUR session to see what happens, or need a rather large stoploss till 4300 to cover any movement.

overall its not a good time to go for a trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 149 KB
  • #813
  • Jul 24, 2011 11:31pm Jul 24, 2011 11:31pm
seriously, if your method doesn't work, stop saying that it has 80% probabilty.....stop denying the fact that your a loser and wanting others to follow u......it is a disease...
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #814
  • Jul 24, 2011 11:55pm Jul 24, 2011 11:55pm
I am not asking others to follow me,

I am just trying to show how you can use circles as boundaries of support or resistance to complement what you are already using.

As I have mentioned earlier to a different member in a previous post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...65#post4802965

the hardest thing in this system, and I believe any other trendline method is the false break of boundaries.

Somebody earlier in the thread mentioned that its lacking a fibonacci aspect to it, and I am experimenting with different fibonacci tools, such as spirls to see whether I can fine tune my analysis better.

At the end of it, you can decide whether this tool, or the analysis that I give is usefull for you or not.

Take Care

Quoting eu_trader
seriously, if your method doesn't work, stop saying that it has 80% probabilty.....stop denying the fact that your a loser and wanting others to follow u......it is a disease...
  • #815
  • Jul 25, 2011 12:02am Jul 25, 2011 12:02am
As of now, i am short on EUR/USD. Seems like betting against u makes my account go green...i am trying it again....
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #816
  • Jul 25, 2011 12:04am Jul 25, 2011 12:04am
Base on economic factors, EUR have not seen it's share of downward pressure yet.....The debt crisis in Greece is not over yet.. Many economist predict that EUR will still have downward pressure.....now it happens
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #817
  • Jul 25, 2011 12:35am Jul 25, 2011 12:35am
M30

After the strong break of the rather strong dotted black trendline, which was able to sustain a decent resistance from July 12th to July 21st, we will most probably see a strong break of the blue curve as well.

There are 2 empty spaces that have very little support within their territory. They are shown by the double black arrows.

Once price goes in these territories it will rush further down to the next support. So the lows of 4300 is the first major level, that if broken we will land on 4230-4250 region, and if that level is broken we will land on 4170.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 130 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.JPG Size: 129 KB
  • #818
  • Jul 25, 2011 1:28am Jul 25, 2011 1:28am
Quoting Kambooj
Here You Go...
Thanks for applying on my chart, I was experimenting with various touch points - really makes a huge difference in perimeter and analysis.

Practice makes perfect...!

I am not using this at all in order to follow you on signals etc., the essence of it is that you demonstrate a unique way of looking at price.

I have only seen this in the Tim Morge webinars to a similar degree, but that was median lines and pitchforks.

Thank you, more charts to come.



______________
michael
Be like water.
  • #819
  • Jul 25, 2011 9:03am Jul 25, 2011 9:03am
Possible Dip to 4250
Here we go...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #820
  • Jul 25, 2011 10:00am Jul 25, 2011 10:00am
If u guys track his thread, u realise that he keeps changing his trades like every few hours....i guess this guy doesn't trade at all......becareful in following him....
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
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