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Circular Trendlines

  • #761
  • Jul 18, 2011 12:56am Jul 18, 2011 12:56am
On July 1st I had a post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post4744169

on the H8 chart that was showing a price war between the 2 blue and red circles in the diagram below.

Because of the drop below 4090 on the openning of the Asian session, I have to conclude that movement that started on July 3rd from 4579 and went to 3837 is not a false break of the blue circle, and its movement will travel to the perimeter of the dotted black circle. Also notice that the bounce off the median line in blue has not been strong enough to get itself above the dotted grey line. The dotted grey line should have acted as support if we were going more upwards, but it has failed to do so.

Overall there is a strong thrust downwards developing as price action is slowly attempting to break 4000 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily.jpg Size: 221 KB
  • #762
  • Jul 18, 2011 8:58am Jul 18, 2011 8:58am
The struggle for the EUR to maintain itself above 4000 will soon fade away, and we might be entering a range bound territory between 3900 and 4100 for a while before the dip downwards towards 3700 and beyond starts.

Here is a alternate view...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #763
  • Jul 18, 2011 10:55am Jul 18, 2011 10:55am
A stronger drop is yet to follow soon breaking the 4000 region and going towards 3920.

Here are the details...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #764
  • Jul 18, 2011 11:52am Jul 18, 2011 11:52am
A better sell position, rather than the pending order at 4020 will soon become available, and that is at 4115-4125 region.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M10.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #765
  • Jul 18, 2011 9:00pm Jul 18, 2011 9:00pm
Quoting Kambooj
A better sell position, rather than the pending order at 4020 will soon become available, and that is at 4115-4125 region.
I think you may be right about the 4125 region sell but I also see a possible sell at 4175-4190 region if it does get up there. Hard to say if it will get up to the 4175-4190 area for sure though so a sure entry might be the 4125 area and a larger SL in case it creeps up to the 4175-4190 area.
  • #766
  • Jul 18, 2011 9:24pm Jul 18, 2011 9:24pm
Usually the Asian session does not offer the best trade opportunities for the EUR/USD, and thats why I am waiting to see what happens in a few hours. Looks like the red curve in this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post4789272

had a false break, but I am trying to confirm this, because my straight trendlines are saying one thing and the curved ones are saying another, thats why I am waiting to get more trendline confirmation, before doing another post. I'll post something around 1:00 AM - 1:30 AM EST.

Take Care


Quoting DaveXXXX
I think you may be right about the 4125 region sell but I also see a possible sell at 4175-4190 region if it does get up there. Hard to say if it will get up to the 4175-4190 area for sure though so a sure entry might be the 4125 area and a larger SL in case it creeps up to the 4175-4190 area.
  • #767
  • Jul 19, 2011 12:16am Jul 19, 2011 12:16am
It was a false break

Its a sell on the EUR, and will post charts soon.


Quoting Kambooj
Usually the Asian session does not offer the best trade opportunities for the EUR/USD, and thats why I am waiting to see what happens in a few hours. Looks like the red curve in this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post4789272

had a false break, but I am trying to confirm this, because my straight trendlines are saying one thing and the curved ones are saying another, thats why I am waiting to get more trendline confirmation, before doing another post. I'll post something around 1:00 AM - 1:30 AM EST.

Take...
  • #768
  • Jul 19, 2011 12:37am Jul 19, 2011 12:37am
M5
There was a pole break of the red circle earlier in the day. Ususally pole breaks if they are authentic and strong, travel at a minimum to the center of the circle. If they are met with resistance in their early stages they turn around and break the same perimeter of the circle that they entered harder in the reverse direction. This is whats happening to the EUR right now.

An example of this situation can be seen on the H1 chart in the following post as well, and the decent that happened on July 3rd after that:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post4746536

Overall on this time frame, the EUR will be breaking the blue straight trendline, and after that has happened, the perimeter of the black circle will be broken, and we will be again in 4016 territory.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.JPG Size: 152 KB
  • #769
  • Jul 19, 2011 12:48am Jul 19, 2011 12:48am
This is a different view on the M15 Chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #770
  • Jul 19, 2011 12:59am Jul 19, 2011 12:59am
A different view from H1 ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #771
  • Jul 19, 2011 1:34am Jul 19, 2011 1:34am
Quoting Kambooj
A different view from H1 ....
Looking forward to it
  • #772
  • Jul 19, 2011 8:15am Jul 19, 2011 8:15am
Since the EUR has decided to choose a alternate path of movement and break the solid straight red line, then in order for it to go further upwards towards 4700, it will need a extremely powerfull spike happening in the vicinity of 4250 to go higher up and completely turn into a bullish scenario. For now direction is still undetermined with respect to behaviour of this pair, and need to stand aside on the sideline for a while to see how the movement is reacting with respect to the black straight trendline and the black circle. If this is the beginning of a bullish scenario, we should not see big retracements, and motion upwards should continue until 4250, where it will find a resistance and hang in there at that level for a solid break. The retracement happening from 4200 is a little bit too much at the moment for a bullish scenario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #773
  • Jul 19, 2011 8:38am Jul 19, 2011 8:38am
admit that u can't profit from such analysis.....clearly u have no stop loss
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #774
  • Jul 19, 2011 8:58am Jul 19, 2011 8:58am
I leave stoploss up to the individual to decide. I try to give direction as best as I can, but sometimes I fail too.


Quoting eu_trader
admit that u can't profit from such analysis.....clearly u have no stop loss
  • #775
  • Jul 19, 2011 9:31am Jul 19, 2011 9:31am
Just brilliant analysis!!!

I admire you so much Kambooj for sharing your unique approach.

Quoting Kambooj
Since the EUR has decided to choose a alternate path of movement and break the solid straight red line, then in order for it to go further upwards towards 4700, it will need a extremely powerfull spike happening in the vicinity of 4250 to go higher up and completely turn into a bullish scenario. For now direction is still undetermined with respect to behaviour of this pair, and need to stand aside on the sideline for a while to see how the movement is reacting with respect to the black straight trendline and the black circle. If this is the beginning...
  • #776
  • Jul 19, 2011 9:53am Jul 19, 2011 9:53am
Kambooj Thank you for your work
  • #777
  • Jul 19, 2011 10:00am Jul 19, 2011 10:00am
The upward movement of the EUR depends on the break of the blue circle. As I am posting this, I noticed that it has slightly broken. Once break is confirmed it will dive down to 4110
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #778
  • Jul 19, 2011 10:36am Jul 19, 2011 10:36am
EUR needs a super solid break to really make itself bullish. Looking at the H2 chart, any motion that broke the solid straight trendline, was not able to sustain itself above that trendline and turned around at the next straight trendline.

For this pair in order to avoid the same situation that happened in the past, it needs a solid 300-400 pip thrust upwards, to go beyond the green circle and the next straight trendline above it.

What is the motivation for such a thrust remains questionable,

plus recent behaviour is much too questionable to have the potential for such a thrust.

Situation still remains bearish, but we dont have a real good position which is safe and sound to do anything.

Still standing on the sideline...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H2.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #779
  • Jul 19, 2011 11:02am Jul 19, 2011 11:02am
So far the M1 time frame is showing a perimeter to perimeter move that probably will end at 4110-4120 region. Such a move will put us back in bearish mode again, and at that level we can gage things better.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #780
  • Jul 19, 2011 1:29pm Jul 19, 2011 1:29pm
The EUR has done a severe drop from the perimeter of the blue circle. There is little support lines between 4180 and 4016 territory. This means that the drop will continue onwards until 4016 is reached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 60 KB
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