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EUR/CHF

  • #861
  • Jul 11, 2011 10:05am Jul 11, 2011 10:05am
Quoting patryn
I am starting to buy today

EURCHF and USDCHF...I expect a small bounce, consolidation with swings, and then the big rise

1.20 - 21 and 0.88 - 89 my targets
  • #862
  • Jul 12, 2011 3:03am Jul 12, 2011 3:03am
1.1580
Nothing from SNB
Nothing from nobody

Something fishy here...are we facing PIIGS based (hyper)inflation or big turnover?
  • #863
  • Jul 12, 2011 3:18am Jul 12, 2011 3:18am
Era of global trading going to shreds /caput.

Everybody, go back to local trading with your neighbours.

I expect 1.00 EUR/CHF within this summer.

Also: <0.8 in USD/CHF (soon after August 2)
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #864
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:00pm Jul 13, 2011 4:00pm
I'm beginner on Forex market, I can't predict eur/chf in the future but I notice something today that can be useful.

During the summer 2008 everybody talked about super expensive OIL! Everybody talked about 150us$/barrel, 180us$, 200us$ ... I was in the TAXI and taxi driver asked me "what do you think about 200us$ oil price"
Now we know the truth ... Oil price in mid 2008 was bubble.

Same situation today, I was in taxi and taxi driver asked me "What do you think about investments in CHF?" When people on the street start talking about some goods... you can be 100% sure that is the time to escape. Here, in my country, everybody are craze about Swiss francs.

I saw some guy on "Discovery" channel when he said about situation at 1929. "when my shoe cleaner know more than me about stocks it is time to sell!"

I bought some francs during summer 2009 and I will sell them in case of 1eur=1chf! That is one in a life time opportunity.

And, at last CHF is just a peace of paper.
  • #865
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:28pm Jul 13, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting random8
I'm beginner on Forex market, I can't predict eur/chf in the future but I notice something today that can be useful.

During the summer 2008 everybody talked about super expensive OIL! Everybody talked about 150us$/barrel, 180us$, 200us$ ... I was in the TAXI and taxi driver asked me "what do you think about 200us$ oil price"
Now we know the truth ... Oil price in mid 2008 was bubble.

Same situation today, I was in taxi and taxi driver asked me "What do you think about investments in CHF?" When people on the street start talking about some...
i think you mean dollar is a piece of paper since frank got strong
anyway somebody is doing some deep anal drilling tonight,as eur/chf and usd/chf are on record highs.
  • #866
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:29pm Jul 13, 2011 4:29pm
Quoting georgem
Era of global trading going to shreds /caput.

Everybody, go back to local trading with your neighbours.

I expect 1.00 EUR/CHF within this summer.

Also: <0.8 in USD/CHF (soon after August 2)
Gonna use you as indicator to buy usd and eur
  • #867
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:48pm Jul 15, 2011 1:48pm
Yesterday I entered LONG EURCHF @ 1,15400 and the pair reached in its high @ 1,1648.
Pretty nice for one day trade. I was targeting 1,1800 zone next week but... now EURCHF returned south leaving me with stop-loss.
Too many (BAD) news went through the markets making them unpredictable.
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #868
  • Jul 15, 2011 4:41pm Jul 15, 2011 4:41pm
Quoting halkins
Yesterday I entered LONG EURCHF @ 1,15400 and the pair reached in its high @ 1,1648.
Pretty nice for one day trade. I was targeting 1,1800 zone next week but... now EURCHF returned south leaving me with stop-loss.
Too many (BAD) news went through the markets making them unpredictable.
Never let a winner turn into a loser!
  • #869
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:08pm Jul 15, 2011 9:08pm
Quoting random8
I'm beginner on Forex market, I can't predict eur/chf in the future but I notice something today that can be useful.

During the summer 2008 everybody talked about super expensive OIL! Everybody talked about 150us$/barrel, 180us$, 200us$ ... I was in the TAXI and taxi driver asked me "what do you think about 200us$ oil price"
Now we know the truth ... Oil price in mid 2008 was bubble.

Same situation today, I was in taxi and taxi driver asked me "What do you think about investments in CHF?" When people on the street start talking about...
in my country people were crazy about gold skyrocketing to 1200$

it went up 300$ more in one year afterwards
  • #870
  • Jul 16, 2011 4:58am Jul 16, 2011 4:58am
Quoting sidhujag
Never let a winner turn into a loser!
Oh yeah... Easy to say as "trend is your friend" and "buy low sell high"etc.
In real life it doesn't look so sweet...
How do you make your "Never let a winner turn into a loser" trades?
I used to close half of my position after 200 pips but couple of times the price went up even 4000pips and I had strange feeling that I lowered my profits by half, or I just could wait a bit longer...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #871
  • Edited 11:16am Jul 16, 2011 11:03am | Edited 11:16am
You should enter your trades according to your time frames. If you are a using the hourly charts, then you should base your trades off of hourly charts. A bad habit of switching from hourly to 4 hour to daily can run your account into the ground, because ultimately you are changing your strategy. If your strategy is one hour you should have a firm idea of what the average move in pips is according to your strategy. I incorporate hourly and 4 hour charts into my strategy and manage my entries and exits accordingly. If you deviate from your strategy path, you are leaving your account to the markets will. I use the 1 hour charts, and I try to incorporate my strategy into the 4 hour charts, by utilizing the 4 hours as a safety net, if my 1 hour fails. If I dont have a 4 hour safety net...and my 1 hour fails me..I am out! Ultimately you profit depends on your money management skills. If you can manage atleast a little profit if things turn ugly you are still winning. Money mangement is KEY to success in this business. Its a shame posters dont focus more on money management instead of trying to find the best strategy, when ultimately a strategy that is 5/10 can still be profitable if it is managed correctly. The big banks know this, but the advantage is they have access to the best management tools on the planet, we retailers have to invent our own.

Its funny...the same rule applies for athletes as it does trading. As an athlete in training the key to success is learning to develop your skill to become better, but what good is that skill if you can't recover from a significant loss. A marathon runner will run 50 k, but the key to success is to manage his/her recovery for the next marathon. efficient recover will lead to increased time to train and improve on the strategy. Anyways..I am rambling on here....jsut wanted to express my opinion.

good luck
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #872
  • Jul 16, 2011 11:26am Jul 16, 2011 11:26am
Quoting halkins
Yesterday I entered LONG EURCHF @ 1,15400 and the pair reached in its high @ 1,1648.
Pretty nice for one day trade. I was targeting 1,1800 zone next week but... now EURCHF returned south leaving me with stop-loss.
Too many (BAD) news went through the markets making them unpredictable.

Which timeframe did you use to base this trade from, then we can get to the root of your error.

pip
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #873
  • Jul 16, 2011 11:39am Jul 16, 2011 11:39am
Quoting halkins
Oh yeah... Easy to say as "trend is your friend" and "buy low sell high"etc.
In real life it doesn't look so sweet...
How do you make your "Never let a winner turn into a loser" trades?
I used to close half of my position after 200 pips but couple of times the price went up even 4000pips and I had strange feeling that I lowered my profits by half, or I just could wait a bit longer...

Trend is not always your friend, it can be your worst enemy if you dont know that all swings can have a trend that means even when when one timeframe is trending that trend can be part of a corrective swing during a higher degree trend, i suspect from looking at the charts from your recent trade that is how the market fooled you.

pip
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #874
  • Jul 16, 2011 12:15pm Jul 16, 2011 12:15pm
Completely agree with Frothy !
CHF strongest currency - EUR weakest, just look at the 4h chart - going down, how far down who knows, so short on the highs in the 1h chart with a 100 pip stop loss, then move it to BE as soon as possible. Closed mine on friday, be back in monday after the bounce higher (too much profit to risk over the weekend).
Good trading everyone !
Andy.
  • #875
  • Edited 1:45pm Jul 16, 2011 1:19pm | Edited 1:45pm
Mostly I am looking for a setup on DAILY charts... then moving for a closer look on 1H, 30mins waiting for a new trend to form and confirm and final decission is made on 15/10mins. Pretty boring...
It works most of the time. But this week wasn't my favourite ;-) too many news changed trend direction in a minute only to change this again next day.
I have noticed I am sucessful when staying out of MONTHLY IMPORTANT NEWS (FED press conference, E.C.B., Non-Farm parolls etc.)
Maybe it's because I am a TECHNICAL rather then FUNDAMENTAL

Here is a quick (OPTIMISTIC) chart (blue was my hope-trend ;-))
Anyway I still thing we are getting into CONSOLIDATION and we'll see EURCHF higher next week...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: corel012.jpg Size: 110 KB
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #876
  • Jul 16, 2011 3:34pm Jul 16, 2011 3:34pm
Quoting halkins
Mostly I am looking for a setup on DAILY charts... then moving for a closer look on 1H, 30mins waiting for a new trend to form and confirm and final decission is made on 15/10mins. Pretty boring...
It works most of the time. But this week wasn't my favourite ;-) too many news changed trend direction in a minute only to change this again next day.
I have noticed I am sucessful when staying out of MONTHLY IMPORTANT NEWS (FED press conference, E.C.B., Non-Farm parolls etc.)
Maybe it's because I am a TECHNICAL rather then FUNDAMENTAL

Here is a quick...
I am not suprised that you have had some success with that approach as it sounds as if you are looking for a new trend contrary to the current so in essence you are probably always counter trend, trend trading against the higher timeframe.

If you use the daily as your trading timeframe and want to trade with the trend rather than trade a counter trend, trend , wait for a retracement on the daily and trade in the direction of the weekly, i find it is best to use the 4 hour or daily for entry. I know it sounds easy but that is the way it works. As for the news it makes no difference to me a set up is a set up and often news releases are used to push the price in the opposite direction to the overall trend for the pros to get in at a discounted price although that is not a rule one should be aware that can happen.

Essentially if you know how to read a chart correctly all the information you need to trade is there in front of you.

As for longs from the daily next week you may just be in for some more punishment (there may be some short term upside bias but that can only lead to more pain for an inexperienced trader) as there is no indication of the direction changing in the short term at least not from a technical perspective, if the fundamentals change then the charts will show when the time is right to go long.

i hope this helps

pip
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #877
  • Jul 17, 2011 12:26am Jul 17, 2011 12:26am
It might not right that the prices are not breakout from the trendline you already enter the trade.

For the volatile market, do you consider to use Stop close only (SCO) instead of the common stop loss.

By the way, anyone know how to exceute Stop Close Only orders on MT4 platform? EA for this?

I also get stop out from my trade GBPUSD pair last week, which now already turn out to be profitable. Oh no..

Please see my attached screen shot..

Regards,

Quoting halkins
Mostly I am looking for a setup on DAILY charts... then moving for a closer look on 1H, 30mins waiting for a new trend to form and confirm and final decission is made on 15/10mins. Pretty boring...
It works most of the time. But this week wasn't my favourite ;-) too many news changed trend direction in a minute only to change this again next day.
I have noticed I am sucessful when staying out of MONTHLY IMPORTANT NEWS (FED press conference, E.C.B., Non-Farm parolls etc.)
Maybe it's because I am a TECHNICAL rather then FUNDAMENTAL

Here is a quick...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable GBPUSD PAIR.jpg Size: 85 KB
  • #878
  • Jul 17, 2011 11:29am Jul 17, 2011 11:29am
Quoting Fx Rocket

I also get stop out from my trade GBPUSD pair last week, which now already turn out to be profitable. Oh no..
Please see my attached screen shot..
Regards,
Well, you can believe it or not, but most of traders are RIGHT about trend direction, but also... most of them are WRONG about timing.
So they enter into trade too early only to be stopped out by big-boys who sweep away their stop loss orders and open profitable positions.

------------------
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #879
  • Jul 17, 2011 2:17pm Jul 17, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting halkins
Well, you can believe it or not, but most of traders are RIGHT about trend direction, but also... most of them are WRONG about timing.
So they enter into trade too early only to be stopped out by big-boys who sweep away their stop loss orders and open profitable positions.

------------------
In EUR/CHF case, the time is now, that is in 1.13XX region, to go finally long.
  • #880
  • Jul 17, 2011 2:20pm Jul 17, 2011 2:20pm
pre market opening spike:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.gif Size: 18 KB
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