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  • #4,641
  • Jul 10, 2011 9:12pm Jul 10, 2011 9:12pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning all

Thank you for the continued interest.

Apologies for my absence from forum activities however it is proving to be a very busy year for myself.

The book is almost complete. Just on that note, I have noticed that the content of the book does not differ much from the content I have contributed in this very thread apart from a planned flow of explanation.

I did not have a chance to read all the posts after my last post in the thread however I can clearly notice that traders are 'finally' looking at market/trading through a...
Hello 'G'!

Thank-you! for your 'participation' on this forum! Your posts seem to always cause a 'paradigm shift' for me whilst I direct my efforts to gain insight towards trading FX successfully.









Respect and gratitude,

Dan.

p.s. @ Vee; your efforts on this thread have been above and beyond IMHO. Thank you.

Dan.
  • #4,642
  • Jul 10, 2011 11:35pm Jul 10, 2011 11:35pm
Quoting andante9
Hello 'G'!

Thank-you!....
Dan.
Thanks Dan. I have been thinking about Graeme's last several posts over the weekend and here's a 'tool' I added to my tool chest to help me understand the overall net currency exposure. Trading multiple pairs and in bidirectional could get difficult to track during volatile sessions (news time). This would help me quickly understand which currencies have the most net exposure. It could also help in hedging analysis if one chooses to do so. Unfortunately, there is no way in MT4 (and most other trading platforms that I know excluding Oanda) to easily do this type of assessment.

Attached Image
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,643
  • Jul 11, 2011 1:16am Jul 11, 2011 1:16am
Quoting VEEFX
Thanks Dan. I have been thinking about Graeme's last several posts over the weekend and here's a 'tool' I added to my tool chest to help me understand the overall net currency exposure. Trading multiple pairs and in bidirectional could get difficult to track during volatile sessions (news time). This would help me quickly understand which currencies have the most net exposure. It could also help in hedging analysis if one chooses to do so. Unfortunately, there is no way in MT4 (and most other trading platforms that I know excluding Oanda) to easily...
Hi V

re: net exposure.

I wonder about this indicator that seems to be included with mt4 called iexposure (see below attached). I think it is the same information that you have found to be helpful and I believe it was included with the original installation package.

I do not mean to distract from the thread, I'm just wondering if it shows the same information that you've presented here.

Thanks

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,644
  • Jul 11, 2011 1:30am Jul 11, 2011 1:30am
Quoting andante9
Hi V

re: net exposure.
No Dan. This indicator reflects each net exposure of each currency 'pair' traded which is different from what I have. Mine calculates the net exposure on each country's currency (which could be used to hedge against currency futures or options for advanced traders). I mainly use it to track volatility during a particular country's news release to assess how much concerned I should be with the outcome of an expected (or unexpected) news release.

It could also be used for global diversification in a traditional sense or for dollar-cost averaging purposes to avoid loading positions too heavily on any given country.

This is probably causing distraction from the core principles of this thread so I will stop here :-

EDIT: I calculate this in excel from my trade blotter which has a live MT4 feed
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,645
  • Jul 11, 2011 2:27pm Jul 11, 2011 2:27pm
Hi Graeme,

Just wanted to say a quick thanks for always coming back to the thread and re-motivating us with your knowledge.

Can't wait for the book.

A
  • #4,646
  • Jul 11, 2011 9:14pm Jul 11, 2011 9:14pm
Good morning all,

Here are my replies to the questions after my last post

alexandersv - rules are simple. you are trying to hit x3 20 take profits each day. you could trade on any session, any timeframe, any pair. The only rules are that you only enter buy positions if price is above open price of the day and sell positions if price is below the open price of the day. It does not matter if each broker shows different open price. I will explain the reason below when I reply to member: costa. Please feel free to ask further.

veefx - good question. when it comes to analyzing ones own statistics, how does one count 'potential' unrealized profit over a given period. THe only way possible is similar to forecasting future population growth. You work out average unrealized profit of the last few weeks/months/days and project this forward for the given period of testing. If you have results from last 4 weeks then you would work out the average and project it forward for the next one year. However.. The last 4 weeks could be 'of better result' or 'of poor result' hence you would need to continue analyzing your stats often. You will notice a large deviation with the first few analysis only to notice a plateau few months in. That plateau is your true median. Hope this helps

costa - Different times of daily candle does not matter. It does not matter if the screen you look at is different to all the other traders. Infact, it will differ from broker to broker. The entries may differ between traders of different daily candle however as long as the trading principal based on long-term growth on the main trend, inevitably you will both arrive at the same door of profit. At the end it will still look like pasta even though i strain mine first and you choose to strain yours last.

veefx - Outstanding on eurznd. So simple yet so sensible. Hope all other readers notice what you are trying to establish.

andante9, ardi- thank you very much for the compliments.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #4,647
  • Jul 11, 2011 10:33pm Jul 11, 2011 10:33pm
Welcome back Graeme
I've read thru all your posts numerous times and everytime thru them I find some better understanding or slightly different idea. I look forward to your book because I believe the correct interpetation of your concepts will be easier to grasp when offered in one continuous setting.
I have had trouble remotely matching your entry success utilizing your described methods, therefore I continue to practice daily your style while trying to blend my personal method (requiring a larger stop loss). I cannot express how much you have helped my trading and overall understanding of the markets.
Much appreciated and look forward in years to come to make that charitable donation in your name.
gmcc
  • #4,648
  • Edited Jul 12, 2011 12:03am Jul 11, 2011 10:39pm | Edited Jul 12, 2011 12:03am
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning all,

Here are my replies to the questions after my last post

alexandersv - rules are simple. you are trying to hit x3 20 take profits each day. you could trade on any session, any timeframe, any pair. The only rules are that you only enter buy positions if price is above open price of the day and sell positions if price is below the open price of the day. It does not matter if each broker shows different open price. I will explain the reason below when I reply to member: costa. Please feel free to ask further.

veefx - good...
Thanks Graeme. I had not thought of tracking unrealized profits to future forecasting. Now it is all coming together and I certainly appreciate the encouragement on my EURNZD positions. I tried your approach on freezing profits today and here's what I have to share with everybody.

Pretty amazing stuff.... as time goes by, it will surely bring further clarity to this concept.

Couple of questions if you don't mind me asking. While building the two short positions, I moved SL to BE as part of my MM. Today, I took two long positions without SL as in the screenshot below.

- Would you recommend removing my BE for short positions? I don't think so as stacking and moving SL to BE is part of our MM rules.

- If price continues downward, at what level would you close your long positions i.e. unfreeze? I am thinking only after a confirmation on downward continuation when weekly candle closed below last's year's low. My concern is, I don't want to wait for too long as closing these two long positions at a loss would have a huge negative hit on my realized account balance. It would introduce drawdown/volatility on my account balance curve impacting my overall statistics. Account drawdowns is something I personally monitor very closely so getting a bit concerned about this.

Many thanks again for your continued participation to help us all.

Sincerely,

- Vee
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT: I have made my trade explorer open for constructive criticism.... http://www.forexfactory.com/veefx

EDIT1: Getting ready to start freezing 1640 pips from my 5 E/U short positions.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #4,649
  • Jul 12, 2011 3:06am Jul 12, 2011 3:06am
Quoting VEEFX
Couple of questions if you don't mind me asking. While building the two short positions, I moved SL to BE as part of my MM. Today, I took two long positions without SL as in the screenshot below.

- Would you recommend removing my BE for short positions? I don't think so as stacking and moving SL to BE is part of our MM rules.

- If price continues downward, at what level would you close your long positions i.e. unfreeze? I am thinking only after a confirmation on downward continuation when weekly candle closed below last's year's low. My concern...
Hi Vee,

Just a thought re your two long EUR/NZD positions: wouldn't you apply the same approach as to your short positions, for consistency's sake?

That is move to BE with the same rationale as when you did for the short positions. To my mind, and Graeme may correct me here, "freezing" positions is the natural outcome of following the market flow rather than a desire to freeze in itself. So on my logic when entering the long positions, I'd have a SL at a level that is consistent with my usual trading philosophy and thus the loss of only 2 positions wouldn't be such a big drawdown.

Worse case scenario, your 2 long SLs get hit, you take a reasonable loss, but the market reverses and closes with a nice bold weekly up candle...then you get another chance next week...

Apologies if I've confused the issue.
Cheers
SJB
  • #4,650
  • Jul 12, 2011 1:56pm Jul 12, 2011 1:56pm
Hi Graeme !
Ive started reading this thread just about one or two weeks ago, and I found it amazing !
I understand all your thoughts about the market, and I feel really lucky to find this thread..
However I got some problems with "managing" of hundred positions , I can't see through them (sorry for
my bad eng, you probably know what I mean)
Should I make some kind of journal of this? What do you do ?
And, By the way, how its going nowadays?
Thanks for your kind answer in advance, Zoltan.
P.s.: Ive only read the first thirty pages of the thread, you possibly already answered this Q, I apologize.
  • #4,651
  • Jul 12, 2011 2:55pm Jul 12, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Graeme,

Glad to see you are doing well. I can't wait to get a copy of your book :-
Thanks for your continued interest in our journey to become better and prosperous traders. Your top notch wisdom is something I personally would cherish forever. You have been an incredible mentor and I am positive, long term success is just around the corner for me. Being in US has its challenges but nothing has some a dedicated trader to navigate though the maze.

Hope to meet and thank you in person some day.

Regards,

Vee
I am completely agree with Vee....i hope i will be able to meet Graeme (one day) and pay my respect and appreciation in person.
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #4,652
  • Jul 13, 2011 5:03pm Jul 13, 2011 5:03pm
After lurking since the beginning and implementing this style of trade with varying degrees of success and failure I just wanted to ask you more experienced folks, or even Graeme, if available, how you deal with the situation I found myself in yesterday.

I have a 500$ account and each trade risk 2%, works out that 50 pip move is worth around 10$.
Since 4th July have been stacking shorts on EURUSD quite successfully using pending orders placed under retrace bars on H4. Had accumulated 5 positions up till 11th July with minimal loss and nicely set to BE - all good so far.

At the low overnight on the 12th July (I sleep in NZ) equity / floating profit had increased account by 50% in a very short time - wow - one of the strengths of this system. I was asleep for the H4 FB that formed on the bounce, so couldn't hedge these shorts. In fact even if I had that would only have been 1 of the 5 positions hedged. With all the euro shananigins it then bounces back up 250 pips so I lose all the 50% increase - that I never had realised in the first place!

How do you deal/cope with this rather than saying wow 50% equity increase - I'm out! and will wait and patiently rebuild again.

Kind regards
  • #4,653
  • Jul 13, 2011 7:12pm Jul 13, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting drandycollings
After lurking since the beginning and implementing this style of trade with varying degrees of success and failure I just wanted to ask you more experienced folks, or even Graeme, if available, how you deal with the situation I found myself in yesterday.

I have a 500$ account and each trade risk 2%, works out that 50 pip move is worth around 10$.
Since 4th July have been stacking shorts on EURUSD quite successfully using pending orders placed under retrace bars on H4. Had accumulated 5 positions up till 11th July with minimal loss and nicely...
Hi Andy,

I experienced the same emotions initially (and a little bit today as well!) to watch all my floating profit slowly disappear. The only way (imho!) to stay sane is to build some realized profits at a rapid pace by focussing on unrealized equity growth and taking profits more frequently. Once you have a decent account balance growth, then it becoming much easier to start shifting focus on realized account balance and start ignoring unrealized equity growth. You have to literally brainwash yourself into thinking that unrealized profit is not yours !

here's my equity curve if it makes you feel any better.. lol
Attached Image


It matters more what I see here though...
Attached Image
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,654
  • Jul 14, 2011 9:53am Jul 14, 2011 9:53am
Thank you for this amazing thread! Together with Nomask's this is the best ever thread in FF.

Regards.
  • #4,655
  • Jul 14, 2011 3:25pm Jul 14, 2011 3:25pm
Thanks Vee,

I will give it a go. A number of times now I have found equity up 50 even 100% in quite a short time without over risking, only to see it all wipe out and actually be negative which is heartbreaking. I think I will take your advice and if initially building a larger than expected profit will bank some, and still try to leave a single leg at that time.

Thanks again for your time, and the graphs which look a lot like the wild swings I am experiencing.
  • #4,656
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:21pm Jul 14, 2011 7:21pm
Hello Graeme.

First of all, I would like to thank you sharing all your wonderful knowledge with us. The amount of time and effort you put forth is incredible and I a feel very fortunate to have found this forum.

I have been browsing forums for a while, in search of the system or program or method that will help me become a successful forex trader.

I am one of the many who have been to all of seminars or webinars, and purchased countless books and systems, yet I still have not become consistently profitable. I believe one of my biggest problems is that I don't know who or what information to trust. After being scammed so many times by all the misinformation out there, it is hard to know what is really the truth. Because of this, I was always jumping from system to system - when one of the systems failed - I did not have enough trust in the system to keep going with it, so I dumped it and tried the next one.

I was always drawn to the "sexy and cool" scalping systems that promised quick riches, you know, the ones that always have the fancy cars and jets and stuff in the pictures, even though deep down, I knew that it was probably just gambling.

I have been searching for a way to do long term trading, where I could build positions over time. A method where I don't have to sit at my PC for ten hours a day.

I am so glad that I found this forum! I am reading all the posts and really absorbing the information. I am only on page 8, but already I have found that I have a very dramatic shift in the way I think about trading.

Over the past few days, I have setup one of my PCs to monitor the Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts, where I can start to get a "feel" for the way they move so I can learn the best methods for entering the position correctly - which as you say, is very important.

I have already setup a demo account and a tracking spreadsheet to track my legs. I have to say that was in INCREDIBLE feeling when I opened my first three positions off the Daily/Weekly charts a few days ago, and watched as all three went positive and have been growing nicely. Currently up 185pips, 156pips and 39pips - with all three having break even stops for no risk. What a great feeling !

I know I have a LOT yet to learn and I really look forward to reading the rest of this thread.

Thank you again Graeme! I think I have found my mentor!

Take Care.
  • #4,657
  • Jul 15, 2011 5:17am Jul 15, 2011 5:17am
Quoting darko2010
Hi everyone,

I have been an early reader of this great thread and Graeme is an extraordinary trader and teacher. There are not enough words to thank him for his patience and dedication to this forum.

However, even though I believe I understand his trading approach which makes perfect sense for the patient, long-term investor who looks beyond short-term volatility (and losses) and focuses on the big picture, I have the feeling this philosophy has a much more impactful result when applied to stocks or even commodities rather than on FX instruments.

Why?...

Hi Darko,
To some point I am with you to say that Graeme's method, being based on T.A., can be applied to whatever instrument you wish to trade. I myself have posted charts of my crude oil trades here. But my longest run so far (500+ pips) was with eur/aud pair.
I am still working on a combination of this method and the COT to trade commodities.
I haven't traded stocks this way.

Best,
Muntu
Patience is magic
  • #4,658
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:08pm Jul 15, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting Eklavya
Folks..I am attaching all of PIPeasy's posts in a pdf file. Please PM me if you are unable to download the file...

http://www.mediafire.com/?nzhyiod0jk6b20c
Thanks for your hard work.

Forever grateful.

zz
  • #4,659
  • Jul 17, 2011 2:11am Jul 17, 2011 2:11am
Hi all,

I'm going to ask a question that has been nagging me since Graeme first mentioned the 3x20 pip exercise early in the thread. If anyone can successfully do 3x20 pip per day, why bother at all with this long term trading approach? Grabbing 60 pips per day consistently would give a far far less volatile equity curve than doing these millipedes and create much less frustration than watching ones legs die repeatedly.

This is a serious question, I'm not trolling here.

With kind regards,
MK
  • #4,660
  • Jul 17, 2011 8:45am Jul 17, 2011 8:45am
Quoting MidKnight
Hi all,

I'm going to ask a question that has been nagging me since Graeme first mentioned the 3x20 pip exercise early in the thread. If anyone can successfully do 3x20 pip per day, why bother at all with this long term trading approach? Grabbing 60 pips per day consistently would give a far far less volatile equity curve than doing these millipedes and create much less frustration than watching ones legs die repeatedly.

This is a serious question, I'm not trolling here.

With kind regards,
MK
Hi MK,

If I read the rules for this exercise properly, there's no limit to how many trades you can take in a day, hence, you could have 30 losers and 3 winners.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
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