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Circular Trendlines

  • #721
  • Jul 15, 2011 6:47am Jul 15, 2011 6:47am
There is your move. Was kinda hoping to see a downthrust and possibly more, otherwise this up move that started the other night would not make sense. The 4hr is showing a Bull flag and a stopping volume down to test the 1.400 area would be just the ticket to get in a good buy.


Quoting Kambooj
Either 4110 or 4080 will be reached.

4080 has less probability at the moment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #722
  • Jul 15, 2011 8:10am Jul 15, 2011 8:10am
Hey, the 4 hr is screaming long. No definate signals yet but add them all up and they point North.
  • #723
  • Jul 15, 2011 8:17am Jul 15, 2011 8:17am
Overall my recommendation is have a pending order to go short at the break of 4089.

The bull scenario depends on a pole break of the lower blue circle, and you need a lot of momentum for that, and also closer distance. The distance is missing, so we need a super momentum upwards, and so far I havent seen from a behaviour perspective this tenacity.

But here is my chart...
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  • #724
  • Jul 15, 2011 8:30am Jul 15, 2011 8:30am
Here is the view on M5.

The 4100 region is the deciding factor. After it has been hit, we can decide what to do.

If 4089 wont get hit, then pending order to go long at 4141,

if 4089 got hit, then short at that level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #725
  • Jul 15, 2011 8:40am Jul 15, 2011 8:40am
Here is H1 Chart
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  • #726
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:07am Jul 15, 2011 9:07am
A different view still..

More Bearish pressure on the EUR/USD
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  • #727
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:24am Jul 15, 2011 9:24am
Here is a scenario that falls in line with your call, Kam. The 4 hr drop to 61.8 % is 1.4000 area. This would probably give that 4 hour VSA chart that selling climax that we desperately need. The Professional selling is waning so it will be a tough drop, but it would fit in like a puzzle piece. Below is Fib pull on the 4 hr.


FYI: Keep an eye on that Nesting Doll on or about 4060
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  • #728
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:38am Jul 15, 2011 9:38am
A selloff today would go a long way in confirming the Bull return. Lets see what happens in the next hour or 2.



Quoting tornado11
Here is a scenario that falls in line with your call, Kam. The 4 hr drop to 61.8 % is 1.4000 area. This would probably give that 4 hour VSA chart that selling climax that we desperately need. The Professional selling is waning so it will be a tough drop, but it would fit in like a puzzle piece. Below is Fib pull on the 4 hr.


FYI: Keep an eye on that Nesting Doll on or about 4060
  • #729
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:49am Jul 15, 2011 9:49am
Still a sell scenario and once 4090 breaks we are going to accelerate towards 4000
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  • #730
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:34am Jul 15, 2011 10:34am
Should have stuck to my guns. Looks like DB on the 1 hr. 4100 May be all.You have to remember, the E/U bounces off the 38% level about as often as it does the 61.8% level. It has tried 3 times and failed to break it. In a nutshell, we could be done. 1hr VSA showing potential Selling climax and a nice shakeout bar in the right order. Selling pressure from the big boys has all but dried up. and these bars indicate professional buying on the way down. Just my opinion.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #731
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:41am Jul 15, 2011 10:41am
Quoting tornado11
Should have stuck to my guns. Looks like DB on the 1 hr. 4100 May be all.You have to remember, the E/U bounces off the 38% level about as often as it does the 61.8% level. It has tried 3 times and failed to break it. In a nutshell, we could be done. 1hr VSA showing potential Selling climax and a nice shakeout bar in the right order. Selling pressure from the big boys has all but dried up. and these bars indicate professional buying on the way down. Just my opinion.

Yes....I learned that lesson several times....stick to your analysis .... I have no idea about volume and bars, but that huge pin on the H8 sealed a direction change for me....how long will it last? I really dont care.....I play intraday, but those big road signs help with overall trend IMHO....I enjoy your analysis....Keep up the good work
  • #732
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:43am Jul 15, 2011 10:43am
Quoting Kambooj
Still a sell scenario and once 4090 breaks we are going to accelerate towards 4000

We are around 1.415 now ..... looks like another point of interest on your chart.....might be it for a huge lower move
  • #733
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:47am Jul 15, 2011 10:47am
Its still on the wild side on M1.
I am expecting a much more powerfull upward thrust upwards, if a bull scenario is in place, but thats missing. Was expecting a strong spike to 4170. Otherwise it still lacking momentum to break that blue circle through the pole.


Quoting tornado11
Should have stuck to my guns. Looks like DB on the 1 hr. 4100 May be all.You have to remember, the E/U bounces off the 38% level about as often as it does the 61.8% level. It has tried 3 times and failed to break it. In a nutshell, we could be done. 1hr VSA showing potential Selling climax and a nice shakeout bar in the right order. Selling pressure from the big boys has all but dried up. and these bars indicate professional buying on the way down. Just my opinion.
  • #734
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:49am Jul 15, 2011 10:49am
Could be triangulation behaviour....

Quoting Kambooj
Its still on the wild side on M1.
I am expecting a much more powerfull upward thrust upwards, if a bull scenario is in place, but thats missing. Was expecting a strong spike to 4170. Otherwise it still lacking momentum to break that blue circle through the pole.
  • #735
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:09am Jul 15, 2011 11:09am
M1 is going crazy.

I have pending sell at 4133, if it continues downwards.
  • #736
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:10am Jul 15, 2011 11:10am
VSA is about the best strategy I have seen and I am just getting the hang of it. Once you know where the professional money is you got this thing licked and I am working on it, but I have got a lot to learn but it is coming fast. My 4400 pause is still up there guys, and if we break that DTL, 4900 is king. Now guys, make sure you are all sitting down here, because I am going to hang it out there for you. You can not disregaurd the Monthly Chart, so I am thinking 4400, 4900, 5130 and then down the road 6000 although not in a straight line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #737
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:14am Jul 15, 2011 11:14am
Below 4149, it will be the beginning of loosing bullish power.


Quoting Kambooj
M1 is going crazy.

I have pending sell at 4133, if it continues downwards.
  • #738
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:21am Jul 15, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Kambooj
Below 4149, it will be the beginning of loosing bullish power.
It will
  • #739
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:23am Jul 15, 2011 11:23am
Something has just occoured to me that a pattern called an Inside Bar has been broken on the 4hr to the bottom side but did not close. If it breaks the top side which is at 4695, that is what my trading Guru calls an inside bar suckin or something like that. Anyway, these things when they break the other way and close above, they usually go a long way. So keep that in mind.

Quoting tornado11
VSA is about the best strategy I have seen and I am just getting the hang of it. Once you know where the professional money is you got this thing licked and I am working on it, but I have got a lot to learn but it is coming fast. My 4400 pause is still up there guys, and if we break that DTL, 4900 is king. Now guys, make sure you are all sitting down here, because I am going to hang it out there for you. You can not disregaurd the Monthly Chart, so I am thinking 4400, 4900, 5130 and then down the road 6000 although not in a straight line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #740
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:28am Jul 15, 2011 11:28am
I agree with you, we need a super super spike to confirm this, and such a spike should not hold back at 4180, it should at a minimum go to 4250 FIRST, before any retracements. I am looking at few charts on M5, and H1, that still confirm bearishness. We need a strong spike below 4090 to go fully bearish.


Quoting tornado11
Something has just occoured to me that a pattern called an Inside Bar has been broken on the 4hr to the bottom side but did not close. If it breaks the top side which is at 4695, that is what my trading Guru calls an inside bar suckin or something like that. Anyway, these things when they break the other way and close above, they usually go a long way. So keep that in mind.
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