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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #284,361
  • Jul 14, 2011 10:28pm Jul 14, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting CasperTrader
I got kicked out again.
Me too, just realized trying to sell a momentary top of ascending channel/wedge and trying to hold with stop at BE is ridiculous; that's hoping the channel will break the other side right away.. better to close the trade at opposite side, or close a half position if hoping for a break.. stop at BE and hold only if trading in channel direction.. well, that's trading 101 but still struggling to do it actually

i hate those BE stopouts. More than half of my trades is stopped at BE. Next week i will try to close a certain part of position and leave the initial stop at its place. That closed profit will be equal to risk left with the remaining part. So if my stop will be 30p and i get to +20p I'll close 0.6 lots out of 1 lot to make a "free trade" instead of moving the stop to BE.
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  • #284,362
  • Jul 14, 2011 10:38pm Jul 14, 2011 10:38pm
Quoting MaryJane
Me too, just realized trying to sell a momentary top of ascending channel/wedge and trying to hold with stop at BE is ridiculous; that's hoping the channel will break the other side right away.. better to close the trade at opposite side, or close a half position if hoping for a break.. stop at BE and hold only if trading in channel direction.. well, that's trading 101 but still struggling to do it actually

i hate those BE stopouts. More than half of my trades is stopped at BE. Next week i will try to close a certain part of position...
You are absolutely right but here's a few things to consider:
1. If most of your trades are BE stopouts but the price reverses and goes in your direction eventually, then you should not BE.
2. I usually don't BE but since I'm trading against the trend, it's safer. I know that in this scenario, if I did not BE my stop, I'll eventually be stop lossed the aggregate of which will be much more.
3. There are moves like the one in last couple of days that are several hundred pips but you have to be real patient waiting for them. When they do come, you make up for all the losses you might have had. In this case, it's not a good idea to close partial positions.

So, basically just look at your trade history to evaluate if BE or partial close was profitable or not.

BTW, I'm short again after seeing not much price movement to the upside.
  • #284,363
  • Jul 14, 2011 10:59pm Jul 14, 2011 10:59pm
Quoting CasperTrader
You are absolutely right but here's a few things to consider:..
100% agree.. thanks for advices! I have to re-evaluate this and set some hard rules. I understand the messed R:R aspect w/partial closes.

Back to topic: cable struggling at the low of 15m channel. we're in for a ride up to 6175/80 if it bounces or we'll drop lower, probably around 6110, if it finally breaks down - I suppose it will, maybe not now but next time.. only time will tell.

Daily pivot at 6139.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.gif Size: 18 KB
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  • #284,364
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:22am Jul 15, 2011 12:22am
hi good morning. In gu 15m time frame the raising wedge shape is broken in down side. Any one in short side? the 6143 today pivot stand a solid support so far breaking that below will give us a nice ride. but today have no news for cable only the eu and usd news makes me doubt its downside ride. If it is a false break out in the raising wedge occurred a while ago then we can see the 6250 today.
  • #284,365
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:00am Jul 15, 2011 1:00am
Quoting bchbch
hi good morning. In gu 15m time frame the raising wedge shape is broken in down side. Any one in short side? the 6143 today pivot stand a solid support so far breaking that below will give us a nice ride. but today have no news for cable only the eu and usd news makes me doubt its downside ride. If it is a false break out in the raising wedge occurred a while ago then we can see the 6250 today.
Trader from Croatia
  • #284,366
  • Edited 1:19am Jul 15, 2011 1:05am | Edited 1:19am
Frankie broke the wedge now. Tested the daily pivot, rejected very sharply. Staying aside at this moment, waiting for London.

I'm very curious about the weekly candle; close above 6100 would be hyperbullish take a look at it
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  • #284,367
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:32am Jul 15, 2011 1:32am
Quoting MaryJane
Frankie broke the wedge now. Tested the daily pivot, rejected very sharply. Staying aside at this moment, waiting for London.

I'm very curious about the weekly candle; close above 6100 would be hyperbullish take a look at it
I agree with you MJ. 6100 will be a crucial support today, break there we might see the 6000 again for buy.
  • #284,368
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:37am Jul 15, 2011 1:37am
Hi all,

It is good to buy at 1.61460? it seems to be strong support at m15. A few pin bar on it already.
  • #284,369
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:44am Jul 15, 2011 1:44am
Quoting gristar
Hi all,

It is good to buy at 1.61460? it seems to be strong support at m15. A few pin bar on it already.

seems like eurusd wants to go down so i think buying 1.6146 is not good call. ( 39 seems to be good support )
i went short 1.6170
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #284,370
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:49am Jul 15, 2011 1:49am
sold 6158.. everybody watch audusd for a wonderful move.. rate cut rumours, wow.
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  • #284,371
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:55am Jul 15, 2011 1:55am
short @ 6147 for 20 pips
  • #284,372
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:56am Jul 15, 2011 1:56am
monthly,weekly,daily levels at around 5-10 pips distance.. look at the price action.. crazy

http://i55.tinypic.com/zmkq34.jpg
  • #284,373
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:57am Jul 15, 2011 1:57am
good day/eve everyone.... its friday... and im not playing on friday... just my rules.. so today im just monitor a movement... now im trigger something.... see that new daily hi...1.6170... that mean gu is / will going down somehow...( just my opinion)... after 1 more candle on H4, it will be confirm..( its already actually but just to make sure)... but, like I said im not playing on friday... man im found myself serounding by 'shark' when im going to play today.... so... im on the sideline today... if 1.6170 is not broken / new line is being made below 1.6193 after todays end.. then on monday it will be a bearish .. so for me if that happened, what ever that selling on monday im going to take it... any way... this is just my opinion...

this is what I see on my H1 chart...
Attached Image
  • #284,374
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:00am Jul 15, 2011 2:00am
Quoting MaryJane
I'm very curious about the weekly candle; close above 6100 would be hyperbullish
For me above 6180.
I have MPP and WR1 at 6153. Weekly chart also has dynamic S/R of 20 EMA sitting at 6173.
and of course those levels should be tested as support b4 considering bullish.
  • #284,375
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:05am Jul 15, 2011 2:05am
H4 line graph possible south outbreak very soon.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15071.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15072.gif Size: 14 KB
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #284,376
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:15am Jul 15, 2011 2:15am
It seems like some of you guys are right. GU is going down now.
  • #284,377
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:15am Jul 15, 2011 2:15am
Got the 20+ pips today short from 6147 closed @ 6127. since its friday any thing can happen. so i had enough today. see you guys on monday. happy green pips to all.
  • #284,378
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:16am Jul 15, 2011 2:16am
pending buy order 1.6098 SL 1.6088 TP 1.6123
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #284,379
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:31am Jul 15, 2011 2:31am
Quoting eqshack
pending buy order 1.6098 SL 1.6088 TP 1.6123
well... that intresting... what is your reason for that if I may ask?...
  • #284,380
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:33am Jul 15, 2011 2:33am
Quoting eqshack
pending buy order 1.6098 SL 1.6088 TP 1.6123
yup i expect a bounce around 6100/05 too.. won't risk with a pending here.. pls be careful with that sl - look @h4 - 6075 last swing high before the huge move up and top of that wide range up bar later on. it might want to look at this pip, GL!!

PS: watch EU as well. fell off its channel again and retesting atm. if eu decides to tank, dollar strength could play out here too but if breaks in again and makes an up journey (the eu channel is about 90 pips high), cable could stall in this area for a while and look up again
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