USD/JPY Discussion | Page 1243 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,841
  • Jul 13, 2011 7:56pm Jul 13, 2011 7:56pm
BOJ will probably let it drop to .50, then they might decide intervene.
  • #24,842
  • Jul 13, 2011 8:08pm Jul 13, 2011 8:08pm
According to Oanda's figures (as publicly displayed on their website), over 80% of USD/JPY positions are long and over 10% of all open positions across all pairs are USD/JPY. This was the case earlier today (about 14 hours ago), as still is now. Now I'm sure some of the people who had an open long early today have closed their positions and some people came in buying later in the day. Hence, mantaining the overall aforementioned figures at over 80% and 10%. But this tells me that Oanda has a major stake on this pair. You can also be sure most (if not all) other brokers are in a similar position. And since most retail brokers are market makers, that means the brokers are entering the other side of the trade into the real market through their "liquidity providers" using retailer money (along with some of theirs too probably).

Now that's not the main reason why this pair continues to drop like a stone. The main reason is because there is no apparent good reason to invest in the US dollar right now. On the contrary, there are reasons for big money to go elsewhere. The US is not looking like they will raise rates anytime soon. The US looks like they may possibly be downgraded. Emerging markets continue to emerge. So the banks put their money elsewhere. Why is there so much being put in Yen beats the hell out of me, but of the majors it seems to be the most steady one right now in terms of longterm perspective. Now with all that crap I just said, I expect for the Yen bubble to burst sometime. How long will it be is the million dollar question - literally.
  • #24,843
  • Jul 13, 2011 8:27pm Jul 13, 2011 8:27pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
According to Oanda's figures (as publicly displayed on their website), over 80% of USD/JPY positions are long and over 10% of all open positions across all pairs are USD/JPY. This was the case earlier today (about 14 hours ago), as still is now. Now I'm sure some of the people who had an open long early today have closed their positions and some people came in buying later in the day. Hence, mantaining the overall aforementioned figures at over 80% and 10%. But this tells me that Oanda has a major stake on this pair. You can also be sure most...
http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook

You won't see this switch sides until

1) bulls are back
and 2) bulls have about peaked and turn power back over to bears.

lmao, cracks me up how often retails are constantly on the wrong side.

Euro this week and last week was like 70% long. Now that they finally get a solid, and extremly aggressive bull candle on the daily... 52% are now short.

Just complete madness, I don't know how the turnover rate in trading isn't higher.
  • #24,844
  • Jul 13, 2011 8:35pm Jul 13, 2011 8:35pm
Quoting Venice
http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook

You won't see this switch sides until

1) bulls are back
and 2) bulls have about peaked and turn power back over to bears.

lmao, cracks me up how often retails are constantly on the wrong side.

Euro this week and last week was like 70% long. Now that they finally get a solid, and extremly aggressive bull candle on the daily... 52% are now short.

Just complete madness, I don't know how the turnover rate in trading isn't higher.
Most people don't know or understand the dynamics of trading. They think price goes up only because people started buying or down because someone is selling. Not quite.
  • #24,845
  • Jul 13, 2011 8:51pm Jul 13, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Most people don't know or understand the dynamics of trading. They think price goes up only because people started buying or down because someone is selling. Not quite.
Not only that, there are heaps of people entering long because they think that the Yen is at record highs so it "has to drop"......same with the Swissy. The Yen (and Swissy) doesn't know what 'record high' means......and it will continue to climb for as long as the forces dictate.

There is no reason to long these pairs, there is no reversal in sight. They won't drop forever, but I cannot see anything that would indicate the bear run is over yet.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,846
  • Jul 13, 2011 9:55pm Jul 13, 2011 9:55pm
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #24,847
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:01pm Jul 13, 2011 10:01pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
According to Oanda's figures (as publicly displayed on their website), over 80% But this tells me that Oanda has a major stake on this
Nice post. I hear of big stops below 78.40 and more below an option barrier at 78.00.
  • #24,848
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:34pm Jul 13, 2011 10:34pm
Hello Boj!!
  • #24,849
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:37pm Jul 13, 2011 10:37pm
Trader from Croatia
  • #24,850
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:38pm Jul 13, 2011 10:38pm
Quoting Geene
Nice.
  • #24,851
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:38pm Jul 13, 2011 10:38pm
lol, or not??? seems a little weak...
  • #24,852
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:44pm Jul 13, 2011 10:44pm
Reuters reporting notable buying from a US bank.
  • #24,853
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:48pm Jul 13, 2011 10:48pm
Quoting Astroman
Reuters reporting notable buying from a US bank.
really? I was pretty sure it was this

http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/b...illadance1.gif
  • #24,854
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:50pm Jul 13, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting Wulfgar
really? I was pretty sure it was this

http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/b...illadance1.gif
LOL. Oh man that was good. I actually laughed out loud.
  • #24,855
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:52pm Jul 13, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
LOL. Oh man that was good. I actually laughed out loud.
hey when godzilla dances it rocks the UJ... forex 101
  • #24,856
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:54pm Jul 13, 2011 10:54pm
Quoting Wulfgar
really?
Really.
  • #24,857
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:07pm Jul 13, 2011 11:07pm
Japanese official is mum on whether they intervened or not. Either way it has been good for a 30+ move. Maybe relieve some of the downside pressure for now.
  • #24,858
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:08pm Jul 13, 2011 11:08pm
I was only playin bud.. i believe you... I wasnt making fun of you or anything... just lightening up the mood a bit
  • #24,859
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:21pm Jul 13, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting Wulfgar
.. i believe you... I wasnt making fun of you or anything...
I didn't take it that you were making fun of me or anything but I did not provide a link so I thought that maybe you thought that I was just assuming that is what happened.

Everything is good.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...spikes-higher/
  • #24,860
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:33pm Jul 13, 2011 11:33pm
Quoting realjumper
there is no reversal in sight. They won't drop forever, but I cannot see anything that would indicate the bear run is over yet.
What effect, if any, do you think the U.S. raising its debt ceiling will have in the short term on this pair?
80 traders viewing now