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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,841
  • Jul 13, 2011 9:56pm Jul 13, 2011 9:56pm
BOJ will probably let it drop to .50, then they might decide intervene.
  • #24,842
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:08pm Jul 13, 2011 10:08pm
According to Oanda's figures (as publicly displayed on their website), over 80% of USD/JPY positions are long and over 10% of all open positions across all pairs are USD/JPY. This was the case earlier today (about 14 hours ago), as still is now. Now I'm sure some of the people who had an open long early today have closed their positions and some people came in buying later in the day. Hence, mantaining the overall aforementioned figures at over 80% and 10%. But this tells me that Oanda has a major stake on this pair. You can also be sure most (if not all) other brokers are in a similar position. And since most retail brokers are market makers, that means the brokers are entering the other side of the trade into the real market through their "liquidity providers" using retailer money (along with some of theirs too probably).

Now that's not the main reason why this pair continues to drop like a stone. The main reason is because there is no apparent good reason to invest in the US dollar right now. On the contrary, there are reasons for big money to go elsewhere. The US is not looking like they will raise rates anytime soon. The US looks like they may possibly be downgraded. Emerging markets continue to emerge. So the banks put their money elsewhere. Why is there so much being put in Yen beats the hell out of me, but of the majors it seems to be the most steady one right now in terms of longterm perspective. Now with all that crap I just said, I expect for the Yen bubble to burst sometime. How long will it be is the million dollar question - literally.
  • #24,843
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:27pm Jul 13, 2011 10:27pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
According to Oanda's figures (as publicly displayed on their website), over 80% of USD/JPY positions are long and over 10% of all open positions across all pairs are USD/JPY. This was the case earlier today (about 14 hours ago), as still is now. Now I'm sure some of the people who had an open long early today have closed their positions and some people came in buying later in the day. Hence, mantaining the overall aforementioned figures at over 80% and 10%. But this tells me that Oanda has a major stake on this pair. You can also be sure most...
http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook

You won't see this switch sides until

1) bulls are back
and 2) bulls have about peaked and turn power back over to bears.

lmao, cracks me up how often retails are constantly on the wrong side.

Euro this week and last week was like 70% long. Now that they finally get a solid, and extremly aggressive bull candle on the daily... 52% are now short.

Just complete madness, I don't know how the turnover rate in trading isn't higher.
  • #24,844
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:35pm Jul 13, 2011 10:35pm
Quoting Venice
http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook

You won't see this switch sides until

1) bulls are back
and 2) bulls have about peaked and turn power back over to bears.

lmao, cracks me up how often retails are constantly on the wrong side.

Euro this week and last week was like 70% long. Now that they finally get a solid, and extremly aggressive bull candle on the daily... 52% are now short.

Just complete madness, I don't know how the turnover rate in trading isn't higher.
Most people don't know or understand the dynamics of trading. They think price goes up only because people started buying or down because someone is selling. Not quite.
  • #24,845
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:51pm Jul 13, 2011 10:51pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Most people don't know or understand the dynamics of trading. They think price goes up only because people started buying or down because someone is selling. Not quite.
Not only that, there are heaps of people entering long because they think that the Yen is at record highs so it "has to drop"......same with the Swissy. The Yen (and Swissy) doesn't know what 'record high' means......and it will continue to climb for as long as the forces dictate.

There is no reason to long these pairs, there is no reversal in sight. They won't drop forever, but I cannot see anything that would indicate the bear run is over yet.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,846
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:55pm Jul 13, 2011 11:55pm
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #24,847
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:01am Jul 14, 2011 12:01am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
According to Oanda's figures (as publicly displayed on their website), over 80% But this tells me that Oanda has a major stake on this
Nice post. I hear of big stops below 78.40 and more below an option barrier at 78.00.
  • #24,848
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:34am Jul 14, 2011 12:34am
Hello Boj!!
  • #24,849
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:37am Jul 14, 2011 12:37am
Trader from Croatia
  • #24,850
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:38am Jul 14, 2011 12:38am
Quoting Geene
Nice.
  • #24,851
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:38am Jul 14, 2011 12:38am
lol, or not??? seems a little weak...
  • #24,852
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:44am Jul 14, 2011 12:44am
Reuters reporting notable buying from a US bank.
  • #24,853
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:48am Jul 14, 2011 12:48am
Quoting Astroman
Reuters reporting notable buying from a US bank.
really? I was pretty sure it was this

http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/b...illadance1.gif
  • #24,854
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:50am Jul 14, 2011 12:50am
Quoting Wulfgar
really? I was pretty sure it was this

http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/b...illadance1.gif
LOL. Oh man that was good. I actually laughed out loud.
  • #24,855
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:52am Jul 14, 2011 12:52am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
LOL. Oh man that was good. I actually laughed out loud.
hey when godzilla dances it rocks the UJ... forex 101
  • #24,856
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:54am Jul 14, 2011 12:54am
Quoting Wulfgar
really?
Really.
  • #24,857
  • Jul 14, 2011 1:07am Jul 14, 2011 1:07am
Japanese official is mum on whether they intervened or not. Either way it has been good for a 30+ move. Maybe relieve some of the downside pressure for now.
  • #24,858
  • Jul 14, 2011 1:08am Jul 14, 2011 1:08am
I was only playin bud.. i believe you... I wasnt making fun of you or anything... just lightening up the mood a bit
  • #24,859
  • Jul 14, 2011 1:21am Jul 14, 2011 1:21am
Quoting Wulfgar
.. i believe you... I wasnt making fun of you or anything...
I didn't take it that you were making fun of me or anything but I did not provide a link so I thought that maybe you thought that I was just assuming that is what happened.

Everything is good.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...spikes-higher/
  • #24,860
  • Jul 14, 2011 1:33am Jul 14, 2011 1:33am
Quoting realjumper
there is no reversal in sight. They won't drop forever, but I cannot see anything that would indicate the bear run is over yet.
What effect, if any, do you think the U.S. raising its debt ceiling will have in the short term on this pair?
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