LJ Forex Group | Page 22 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

JPY Group - Best Group to Trade 60 replies

Your experience with Forex.com [GAIN Capital Group, LLC] 37 replies

Forex Techniques Development Group 24 replies

FOREX, Robert Gray, FXLQ, and Nfa/ctfc... PLEASE REPOST IN EVERY GROUP 0 replies

Attachments: LJ Forex Group
Exit Attachments

LJ Forex Group

  • #421
  • Jul 7, 2011 7:35pm Jul 7, 2011 7:35pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
you understood my point well. having proper routines identifying areas is solution taken, the others seems too subjective, not sure how to achieve that.

by identifying areas, I have two lines in below chart, the 50 level is a daily s/r, 61.8 level is weekly. it seems a good location to go short for me, which level of the two carries higher probability in your opinion, if I may?

or, do you think these two levels are totally bullshit, sometimes they turn out to be trully bullshit, this occurs often, agree or not. how do you gain confidence in evaluating these two lines, for instance? thank you


Krue


Quoting lovejoy80
I'm not 100% sure what you mean but I think you're saying why is it so easy to see things in hindsight but not spot them in real time...if so then IMO it's down to having a proper routines in terms of identifying areas and checking charts periodically, experience, confidence and keeping it simple and just interpreting what is in front of you. It's not something that can be achieved overnight, it takes dedication and practice.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #422
  • Jul 8, 2011 6:55am Jul 8, 2011 6:55am
I stayed out today and slept in due to it being First Friday (NFP day). I really expected some nice risk appetite today, and expected the EUR to be stronger. Good thing I slept in.

Anyone trading today?
  • #423
  • Jul 8, 2011 12:40pm Jul 8, 2011 12:40pm
First and foremost, this is a great thread for new students learning to trade the volatile fx market. I’m very appreciative for Lovejoy sharing and many seniors out there. I’ve have some questions to ask: Sorry a bit lengthy here…

1.How do you decide on which currency pairs to trade before the start of each trading week? Do you rank them using interest differentials, spreads, news, technical outlook or others? There are so many fx pairs available that it makes quite impossible to focus on them all. Currently I’m having a fixed list (AU, NU, EJ, ECHF, EU, GJ, GU, UJ, UCHF, UCAD, XAU, XAG) that I monitor daily. I’m quite curious how the seniors in this thread keep watch of so many fx pairs, as I often see good setup in other pairs outside my list posted here.

2.How do you guys enter your trade assumed good confluence is reached (e.g. Trendline, BRN, Fib, PPZ)? I know there are some way to do so: (1) based on some price action like PB (2) touch trade (3) zoom down to lower timeframe like 5mins to look for PA when price approach target zone. Third option is out for me as I’ve a full time job and can only check my chart periodically (Btw, my preferred timeframe is 4H and Daily). Second option is too advanced as I do not know where to out my stoploss without price action bar forming. That leaves the first option available. But I always find that price decisively move away from confluence area (e.g. BRN, fib50, ppz) without forming good PA bars on 4H TF for my entry. But on the lower timeframe, a good PA bar might pop up! Argh I miss a lot of good trade which otherwise will get a decent return if I used adopt option (2) or (3). Any good suggestion here?

3.The next question is about stop-loss. Usually I will just hide it behind the price action bar (e.g. lower wick of PB for long). But sometimes, after price hit my entry, it just stalls there for the next 2 4H bars or even longer. In such situation, I get anxious because to me, a good trade should be a high momentum trade. What do you guys suggest in this situation as I do not want to wait and take a full bar loss? Right now, I will just manually close it when price just sleeps and go no where. Is that advisable?

Thank you very much!
  • #424
  • Jul 8, 2011 2:20pm Jul 8, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting krue
you understood my point well. having proper routines identifying areas is solution taken, the others seems too subjective, not sure how to achieve that.

by identifying areas, I have two lines in below chart, the 50 level is a daily s/r, 61.8 level is weekly. it seems a good location to go short for me, which level of the two carries higher probability in your opinion, if I may?

or, do you think these two levels are totally bullshit, sometimes they turn out to be trully bullshit, this occurs often, agree or not. how do you gain confidence...
I think you have spotted decent PPZ's (IMO) but i have a suggestion,

If you zoom out and see.These are not really just lines they are wide area's.

It depends on how you dress up you chart and view the SR and confluence in results of how much successful they prove to be or if they are just BS.

For an example,

You have a horizontal line at 390 confluenced with 50 fib and another one at 430 with 61 fib.

Price gets there and you put a short at 390 with a 20 pip SL. Price goes to 415, hits your SL and comes back down to 350. Also it dint go high enough to hit 430 so you could get another short touch trade with an SL at 460.

Now these are bullshit SR for you. lol

On the other hand i will do one of the two things,

1- Wait for price to hit 410 area which is in between the two fibs and short with my stop at 460.

2- Or if want a smaller SL i will wait for it to hit 430 and short with a 30 pip SL but also at a of risk my being missing the trade if it does not hit 430.

Now price hits 410 and triggers my short order, goes to 415 and turns back down towards 350. The levels worked out for me.

Or if i had went with 2nd option i would have missed my short trade cause of my greed or say perfectionism.

In both cases the Levels worked out fine for me and i am satisfied.

On the other hand they dint work for you.

So i just gave you this example to show how same things could mean different things to different people depending on how they conduct their operations.

Hope it helped.
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #425
  • Jul 8, 2011 2:38pm Jul 8, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting kenkoo
First and foremost, this is a great thread for new students learning to trade the volatile fx market. I’m very appreciative for Lovejoy sharing and many seniors out there. I’ve have some questions to ask: Sorry a bit lengthy here…

1.How do you decide on which currency pairs to trade before the start of each trading week? Do you rank them using interest differentials, spreads, news, technical outlook or others? There are so many fx pairs available that it makes quite impossible to focus on them all. Currently I’m having a fixed list (AU, NU,...
Hey Kenkoo,

The questions you have asked are very difficult to answer as these could not be answered in a single post. But the good news is LJ have made more than a hundred posts about How he places his stops, How he picks area's for his touch trades and how he enter trades when those area's are reached, How he treats PA bars and much much more.

But you will have to take a little pain to read over his journal ( start from October-2010) and you find answers to all of your questions. Next you will need to practice the findings yourself in the market to see what works for and what does't.

Regarding you first question, I think you have a good lists of pairs for a beginner. You can add more if you can manage the time and when get more experience with the major ones.

Hope is helped.
.
  • #426
  • Jul 8, 2011 2:41pm Jul 8, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I stayed out today and slept in due to it being First Friday (NFP day). I really expected some nice risk appetite today, and expected the EUR to be stronger. Good thing I slept in.

Anyone trading today?
Yeah i traded today, i also expected a good NFP number and massive risk appetite today.

To bad i dint slept in.
.
  • #427
  • Jul 8, 2011 3:47pm Jul 8, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Yeah i traded today, i also expected a good NFP number and massive risk appetite today.

To bad i dint slept in.
.
Yes. I am not sure if you watch CNBC or not, but it is fun to get up and turn it on in the morning. Anyway, there were some nice long EUR set-ups on the EURUSD and the EURJPY from yesterday. So I expected the EUR to be strong, but didn't trade due to NFP day.

I slept in, woke up and saw the pairs had not moved. I knew it all hinged on the news and I waited to see.

On CNBC there is a guy named Rick Santelli. He is pretty negative regarding Obama and his economic policies, and while he is usually spot on, he is funny just because he gets so animated. And the estimated Job growth was 125k for June (the big number released today). Santelli says "pffft, more like 88,000, just watch".

I wait, and the number is 12,000. WOW!!! OUCH!!! I look at the charts and the EURUSD and the EURJPY show risk aversion as they drop like a hot rock, LOL.
  • #428
  • Jul 9, 2011 1:22am Jul 9, 2011 1:22am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
thanks for your creativity, nasir, from your reply, it seems you are also not sure which one of the two lines carries higher probability,that was my point in question. however, your zoom out suggestion is useful. wish to see you post good charts next week, and happy weekend


Quoting nasir.khan
I think you have spotted decent PPZ's (IMO) but i have a suggestion,

If you zoom out and see.These are not really just lines they are wide area's.

It depends on how you dress up you chart and view the SR and confluence in results of how much successful they prove to be or if they are just BS.

For an example,

You have a horizontal line at 390 confluenced with 50 fib and another one at 430 with 61 fib.

Price gets there and you put a short at 390 with a 20 pip SL. Price goes to 415, hits your SL and comes back down to 350. Also it dint go...
  • #429
  • Jul 9, 2011 1:29am Jul 9, 2011 1:29am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
have you done the mechanical trading stage, tj ? from your postings, you have been paying a lot attention to fundies and market sentiment, guess you've passed that stage? how was the result if my guess work were correct? I think one needs to experience the mechanical stage first according to LJ's advice?


krue


Quoting unlv_tj
Yes. I am not sure if you watch CNBC or not, but it is fun to get up and turn it on in the morning. Anyway, there were some nice long EUR set-ups on the EURUSD and the EURJPY from yesterday. So I expected the EUR to be strong, but didn't trade due to NFP day.

I slept in, woke up and saw the pairs had not moved. I knew it all hinged on the news and I waited to see.

On CNBC there is a guy named Rick Santelli. He is pretty negative regarding Obama and his economic policies, and while he is usually spot on, he is funny just because he gets so animated....
  • #430
  • Jul 9, 2011 3:16am Jul 9, 2011 3:16am
Quoting krue
have you done the mechanical trading stage, tj ? from your postings, you have been paying a lot attention to fundies and market sentiment, guess you've passed that stage? how was the result if my guess work were correct? I think one needs to experience the mechanical stage first according to LJ's advice?


krue
I started with Phillip Nel's system and James16. Both are purely technical. But I feel more comfortable with what Mark is doing and his combines in some fundamentals.

I don't trade on fundamental news, but I add it into my thought process on which direction I expect the overall market to move in the short term (next few days).
  • #431
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:22am Jul 11, 2011 7:22am
Wow, the Eur is just falling off a cliff early on a Monday morning. I expected a small retrace to get into it first, nope, it went without me.
  • #432
  • Jul 11, 2011 9:45am Jul 11, 2011 9:45am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hey Kenkoo,

The questions you have asked are very difficult to answer as these could not be answered in a single post. But the good news is LJ have made more than a hundred posts about How he places his stops, How he picks area's for his touch trades and how he enter trades when those area's are reached, How he treats PA bars and much much more.

But you will have to take a little pain to read over his journal ( start from October-2010) and you find answers to all of your questions. Next you will need to practice the findings yourself in the...
Thanks a lot Nasir! I will read through the threads and see what I can snip out! Many pips to you
  • #433
  • Jul 13, 2011 9:29am Jul 13, 2011 9:29am
Still no trades this week. I had an order set on the USDJPY to go short at 80 this morning, and we didn't even get close to that level. I also went ahead and entered a short on the EURJPY at 113.50 and GBPJPY at 128. Looking for 1R bounces and then to get at break even, but none of these pairs even came close. The JPY is just too strong, too much uncertainity right now.

I think I got too picky on the EURUSD at 1.41. I believe this was a decent area for a 1R BE trade that I completely overlooked. I would have gotten 1R and then stopped out on my 2nd half, but I am still not sure how I over looked this area.

Anyone else here taken any trades this week or see the same levels I was seeing?

Thanks!

T.J.
  • #434
  • Jul 13, 2011 1:42pm Jul 13, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Still no trades this week. I had an order set on the USDJPY to go short at 80 this morning, and we didn't even get close to that level. I also went ahead and entered a short on the EURJPY at 113.50 and GBPJPY at 128. Looking for 1R bounces and then to get at break even, but none of these pairs even came close. The JPY is just too strong, too much uncertainity right now.

I think I got too picky on the EURUSD at 1.41. I believe this was a decent area for a 1R BE trade that I completely overlooked. I would have gotten 1R and then stopped...
I took the EU touch trade at 1.41 but ended up BE on this traded as managed it like you would've.

That would have been all for technical touch setups until now for this week.

But i analysed the fundamental situation, i realized that current rally un EU,GU etc was built on just little hint of QE3, and bulls really got out of their way to long and moves really got over extended in the face of what we we dealing with in Eurozone.

Eu debt issue are't gone anywhere and market will quickly turn its attention to them as soon as QE3 rally runs outa fuel.

So with these thoughts in my mind i looked over at my charts, saw some appropriate area's and went short EU,GU, and long Ucad.

Will use a loose trade management on these trades and see if i could catch some runners.
.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.jpg Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #435
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:14pm Jul 13, 2011 2:14pm
Nasir,

Thank you, yes I have the same thoughts on the market. Ben Bernake spoke today and hinted at QE3, and BAM the Eur recovers, the GBP recovers, and the stock market recovers. And it all seems short term, as the underlying issues still exist, and common sense will return to the market sooner or later.

I just completely overlooked the EURUSD 1.41 area for a short. I put one at 1.4150 a few days ago, but pulled it as it didn't look confluenced enough.

I still think the areas I pointed out on the JPY could be good short opportunities in the future, if the pairs ever recover enough...

UJ - 80
GPBJPY - 128
EURJPy - 113.5

And I may put in some sell orders again after today's NY session closes on these three pairs.
  • #436
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:40pm Jul 13, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Nasir,

Thank you, yes I have the same thoughts on the market. Ben Bernake spoke today and hinted at QE3, and BAM the Eur recovers, the GBP recovers, and the stock market recovers. And it all seems short term, as the underlying issues still exist, and common sense will return to the market sooner or later.

I just completely overlooked the EURUSD 1.41 area for a short. I put one at 1.4150 a few days ago, but pulled it as it didn't look confluenced enough.

I still think the areas I pointed out on the JPY could be good short opportunities...
Yeah mate,

Not really following Jpy's atm but yes good technical area's to short.
.
  • #437
  • Jul 13, 2011 7:22pm Jul 13, 2011 7:22pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
what you guys think of my short trade on EC technically speaking, it is not a major though? would you think this ppz a valid ppz and you would like to expect a bounce off of the retrace on daily? I am losing feel about S/R, not sure what's the problem......

Krue
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #438
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:29am Jul 14, 2011 4:29am
Quoting krue
what you guys think of my short trade on EC technically speaking, it is not a major though? would you think this ppz a valid ppz and you would like to expect a bounce off of the retrace on daily? I am losing feel about S/R, not sure what's the problem......

Krue
Looks like you got enough movement to get to BE. I hope you were able to do so.

I passed on this trade because the PPZ didn't line up with the 50 to 61.8 Fib retracement level. Price did not move down enough to retrace back to this PPZ and give it enough room to retrace.
  • #439
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:33am Jul 14, 2011 4:33am
I am wondering how you guys play something like my posted chart.

I had a sell order at 128.00 originally set on the GBPJPY. I then saw yesterday in the post NY market time and early JPY market time, the GBPJPY shot up to 127.82 and then shot back down.

In my little understanding of market dynamics, it seems this move might take out a lot of the stop loss orders and sell orders that I would piggy back off of at 128. So I pulled my order last night.

I wake up this morning to see price shot up to 128, and shot back down as I had originally expected, and yesterdays move did not seem to absorb all the selling pressure. So I missed out on this trade.

When you see something like this, do you normally close your pending orders or do you hold firm knowing the level is strong enough to absorb something this close and still get you to BE. Just wondering how you play this.

Thank you,

T.J.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #440
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:26am Jul 14, 2011 5:26am
Quoting unlv_tj
Nasir,

Thank you, yes I have the same thoughts on the market. Ben Bernake spoke today and hinted at QE3, and BAM the Eur recovers, the GBP recovers, and the stock market recovers. And it all seems short term, as the underlying issues still exist, and common sense will return to the market sooner or later.

I just completely overlooked the EURUSD 1.41 area for a short. I put one at 1.4150 a few days ago, but pulled it as it didn't look confluenced enough.

I still think the areas I pointed out on the JPY could be good short opportunities...
Hey i hope you got GJ touch short.
.
3 traders viewing now