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Circular Trendlines

  • #681
  • Jul 12, 2011 1:27pm Jul 12, 2011 1:27pm
Quoting Kambooj
Best way right now to trade the EUR is entry order to sell at 3949 and to buy at 4000 level
Brother
Clear ur mind we are most of time have same view
I just finished review my chart we going up for while And have sell limit Up there And u will tell me where it is as always

My post before 10H ago
Quoting egkid

First support in my view as TP1 for my plan 1.38 - 1.3830

I must back to my work
Catch u later
  • #682
  • Jul 12, 2011 2:15pm Jul 12, 2011 2:15pm
Here is another snap shot of the situation...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #683
  • Jul 12, 2011 3:11pm Jul 12, 2011 3:11pm
I haven't posted for a while, just been busy. Here is what I saw happening:
The small abcd is the gartley for the large ABCD Fib move.
Looks like we are ready for a bull retrace now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 25 KB
  • #684
  • Jul 12, 2011 3:27pm Jul 12, 2011 3:27pm
Thanks, Thats what I thought it was too.

It dropped as soon as I Posted this one:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post4773025



But the main resistance line is 4100, and the way I see it is that it will make one last attempt at that level too.


Quoting DaveXXXX
I haven't posted for a while, just been busy. Here is what I saw happening:
The small abcd is the gartley for the large ABCD Fib move.
Looks like we are ready for a bull retrace now.
  • #685
  • Jul 12, 2011 5:42pm Jul 12, 2011 5:42pm
Hey guys, here is the most important chart we got going. It is the 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. THIS IS A DAILY CHART FRIENDS. The 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. have been used on the Daily chart for years!The first stop...LONG TERM.. is the 4400 area. Now I explaind that we have all the VSA signals in place. Let us see what happens. Now, this thing is not going to fly to the 4400 area in a straight line. Please keep that in mind. I think a lot of people out there have missconceptions about trading long term.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #686
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:12pm Jul 12, 2011 6:12pm
I'll keep that in mind
Very Interesting.
I will double check all my higher time frames to see whether this can be a possibility.


Quoting tornado11
Hey guys, here is the most important chart we got going. It is the 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. THIS IS A DAILY CHART FRIENDS. The 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. have been used on the Daily chart for years!The first stop...LONG TERM.. is the 4400 area. Now I explaind that we have all the VSA signals in place. Let us see what happens. Now, this thing is not going to fly to the 4400 area in a straight line. Please keep that in mind. I think a lot of people out there have missconceptions about trading long term.
  • #687
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:19pm Jul 12, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting Kambooj
Thanks, Thats what I thought it was too.

It dropped as soon as I Posted this one:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post4773025



But the main resistance line is 4100, and the way I see it is that it will make one last attempt at that level too.
No prob. I am not long quite yet. I might wait for an upsidedown H&S or some other readon before I enter.
  • #688
  • Jul 12, 2011 8:23pm Jul 12, 2011 8:23pm
Quoting tornado11
Hey guys, here is the most important chart we got going. It is the 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. THIS IS A DAILY CHART FRIENDS. The 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. have been used on the Daily chart for years!The first stop...LONG TERM.. is the 4400 area. Now I explaind that we have all the VSA signals in place. Let us see what happens. Now, this thing is not going to fly to the 4400 area in a straight line. Please keep that in mind. I think a lot of people out there have missconceptions about trading long term.
I also have it always open on one of my charts and I keep an eye on it but I just got a question. Someone tried to explain me before but I didn't get it, how do you find out about the 4400 area? I mean where do you look at. I know when there is a signal to enter short or long but I thought you never know where the price goes if looking just at 200SMA and Stochs. Maybe im missing out something? Thank u.
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #689
  • Jul 12, 2011 8:26pm Jul 12, 2011 8:26pm
Its an approximation. I have a DTL drawn off the tops and do an approximation. it could change as time goes by. I want to see this thing go to 4900 again. It would be nice.

Quoting Pip Maker
I also have it always open on one of my charts and I keep an eye on it but I just got a question. Someone tried to explain me before but I didn't get it, how do you find out about the 4400 area? I mean where do you look at. I know when there is a signal to enter short or long but I thought you never know where the price goes if looking just at 200SMA and Stochs. Maybe im missing out something? Thank u.
  • #690
  • Jul 12, 2011 8:28pm Jul 12, 2011 8:28pm
Trading is not exact science. This thing could break this 200 SMA tonight. I am just playing the averages ole buddy.

Quoting tornado11
Its an approximation. I have a DTL drawn off the tops and do an approximation. it could change as time goes by. I want to see this thing go to 4900 again. It would be nice.
  • #691
  • Jul 12, 2011 8:35pm Jul 12, 2011 8:35pm
Thanks for the response Kambooj.
  • #692
  • Jul 13, 2011 9:28am Jul 13, 2011 9:28am
That small loss I took on the 1 Hr signal, has turned into $$$$$ on the 4 hr signal. And the Daily bounce off the 200 SMA is icing on the cake. Just remember, the higher the timeframe the more dependable the signal. Now, there are a lot of people who went short on this and I feel for them, but with VSA you can really see where the professionals are buying or selling. First obstacle is the grey areas.



Quoting tornado11
Hey guys, here is the most important chart we got going. It is the 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. THIS IS A DAILY CHART FRIENDS. The 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. have been used on the Daily chart for years!The first stop...LONG TERM.. is the 4400 area. Now I explaind that we have all the VSA signals in place. Let us see what happens. Now, this thing is not going to fly to the 4400 area in a straight line. Please keep that in mind. I think a lot of people out there have missconceptions about trading long term.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #693
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:00am Jul 13, 2011 10:00am
Getting close to Daily resistance, so I just pulled 3/4 of my load off. I will wait for a pullback and some good VSA signals to buy some more, probably toinght.. Daily Stoch has crossed and this is turning out to be a Morning Star formation off the 200 SMA......Very Nice!


Quoting tornado11
That small loss I took on the 1 Hr signal, has turned into $$$$$ on the 4 hr signal. And the Daily bounce off the 200 SMA is icing on the cake. Just remember, the higher the timeframe the more dependable the signal. Now, there are a lot of people who went short on this and I feel for them, but with VSA you can really see where the professionals are buying or selling. First obstacle is the grey areas.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #694
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:00am Jul 13, 2011 10:00am
Hi Tornado11

I really appreciate your posts.

At the moment I cant see on the daily much upward movment the way you see it. However my M15 chart below is showing that the inside of the red circle has been used as a strong support for movement to go upwards. From the furiousity of the motion there could be some resistance at 4170. If the perimeter of the black circle gets broken, then the center of the red circle will be a slow down area. That is around 4250, and 4400 is just on the other side of the perimeter, and so with the nature of this move, 4400 is very much possible, depending on what happens at 4250.

As far as daily goes on my post here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...97#post4770597

You still can have a comeback to the 4250 region, but because of severe penetration of the 4000 region, I wouldnt remove the possibility of a strong sell at that level. If we go beyond 4250 towards 4400, then something else is happening on the daily time frame which makes the dip below 4000 a false break. In anyhow resistance is very strong around 4400 if it ever gets to there.



Quoting tornado11
That small loss I took on the 1 Hr signal, has turned into $$$$$ on the 4 hr signal. And the Daily bounce off the 200 SMA is icing on the cake. Just remember, the higher the timeframe the more dependable the signal. Now, there are a lot of people who went short on this and I feel for them, but with VSA you can really see where the professionals are buying or selling. First obstacle is the grey areas.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 58 KB
  • #695
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:26am Jul 13, 2011 10:26am
I am willing to bet that is all it was. Time will tell. Just look at the Monthly Fallin Wedge and see how it has 3 times tried to fall back into this area and has failed miserably each time. I believe we are on our way up. Fundies have never scared me and they never will. For your benefit I will post that Monthly chart for you all and you can see what I mean.


Quoting Kambooj
Hi Tornado11

I really appreciate your posts.

At the moment I cant see on the daily much upward movment the way you see it. However my M15 chart below is showing that the inside of the red circle has been used as a strong support for movement to go upwards. From the furiousity of the motion there could be some resistance at 4170. If the perimeter of the black circle gets broken, then the center of the red circle will be a slow down area. That is around 4250, and 4400 is just on the other side of the perimeter, and so with the nature of this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #696
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:31am Jul 13, 2011 10:31am
The problem with the trend changing on the daily time frame going towards 4400 is the severity of the break of this blue circle. It is understood that since the blue circle has been a very strong support in the past, the beakage of this circle would not occur without a rebound, and anything that breaks it will have a lot of energy to it. Also it is accepted behaviour that once a support level does get broken we will have a revisit to that support level.

In our case from May till around July 10th the 4000 - 4150 region was a fairly strong suport, and it did get broken severely and a revisit to it was expected.

What I am trying to imply is that from a trendline perspective and the severity of the pole break, its hard to see this thing fly to 4400. Overall the way I see it, is that the intention of price action is to dip lower than 3850, and its just doing a retracement for further down. As to how far this retracement can go, at the moment I believe it could have maxed out, but need a confirmation on M1, which I am not getting at the moment.




Quoting tornado11
Hey guys, here is the most important chart we got going. It is the 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. THIS IS A DAILY CHART FRIENDS. The 200 SMA and the Stochastic os. have been used on the Daily chart for years!The first stop...LONG TERM.. is the 4400 area. Now I explaind that we have all the VSA signals in place. Let us see what happens. Now, this thing is not going to fly to the 4400 area in a straight line. Please keep that in mind. I think a lot of people out there have missconceptions about trading long term.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H8.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #697
  • Jul 13, 2011 10:45am Jul 13, 2011 10:45am
The confirmation for short position is a break of the perimeter of the blue circle followed by the break of the solid straight black trendline. As far as up motion is considered, its within the accepted limitations of going from the perimeter to perimeter and speeding up through the center of the circle. have to wait before going short on this pair....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #698
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:03am Jul 13, 2011 11:03am
You have said the overall trend is down, can you please explain. Because I see it as still being up. And I understand depending on the way you look at it, it could be both.

So let us change our meaning a bit and do what we have done in the past. It is a term called T.O.M., "Trend of the Moment". This we can use to keep from confusing long term traders and short term traders. You are using the T.O.M.......Please let me know if I am right.

In the long term trend we are still up when taken off the daily as you can see below. As long as the Green UTL is not broken I consider the Long Term Trend, or L.T.T. is still up. I think using these terms will help keep from confusing those, like Egkid the other day because I dont think he understood that when trading off the daily, 200 Pip shakeouts are not uncommon.

Also, notice how the 200 SMA closely follows that main trend line.


Quoting Kambooj
The problem with the trend changing on the daily time frame going towards 4400 is the severity of the break of this blue circle. It is understood that since the blue circle has been a very strong support in the past, the beakage of this circle would not occur without a rebound, and anything that breaks it will have a lot of energy to it. Also it is accepted behaviour that once a support level does get broken we will have a revisit to that support level.

In our case from May till around July 10th the 4000 - 4150 region was a fairly strong suport,...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #699
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:39am Jul 13, 2011 11:39am
Its how the spike happens that concerns me, and how much time does it take to travel a certain amount of pips. The Green trendline on your chart has a high probability of breaking. Thats the way I see it.

Its because of the WAY that the Pole of the Circle that I was mentioning before got broken. A hard break usually means that the support that a particular circle has exhibited is no longer there, and motion usually at a minimum goes towards the center of such circles.

The Long Term Trend (L.T.T) at the moment, is towards 3000 level. At 3000 it has the probability of Reversing and going upwards.

The Trend Of The Movement Right now (T.O.M) is up, and I believe its maxed out.


Quoting tornado11
You have said the overall trend is down, can you please explain. Because I see it as still being up. And I understand depending on the way you look at it, it could be both.

So let us change our meaning a bit and do what we have done in the past. It is a term called T.O.M., "Trend of the Moment". This we can use to keep from confusing long term traders and short term traders. You are using the T.O.M.......Please let me know if I am right.

In the long term trend we are still up when taken off the daily as you can see below. As long as the Green...
  • #700
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:49am Jul 13, 2011 11:49am
So far the confirmation is here. Pending order at 4149 for a sell is a good start......

Quoting Kambooj
The confirmation for short position is a break of the perimeter of the blue circle followed by the break of the solid straight black trendline. As far as up motion is considered, its within the accepted limitations of going from the perimeter to perimeter and speeding up through the center of the circle. have to wait before going short on this pair....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 82 KB
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