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USD/CHF

  • #2,181
  • Jul 8, 2011 8:53am Jul 8, 2011 8:53am
Quoting Abouelzelouf
wait and see the result of NFP, and you will know how the future of usdchf will move the rest of the month.

USDCHF SHORT
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #2,182
  • Jul 8, 2011 9:11am Jul 8, 2011 9:11am
multiple support at 8380-75-60, will be tough to break but if it does we may see 8300 early next week
  • #2,183
  • Jul 9, 2011 1:27am Jul 9, 2011 1:27am
Quoting challenger78
multiple support at 8380-75-60, will be tough to break but if it does we may see 8300 early next week
they should probably be the last downward stops before a strong rise can commence

0.8275 lows could be restested but I don't expect them to be breached on a daily basis, especially after the Parliament in Swiss is starting to discuss about the strong franc

Moreover, if a deal will be found on the US debt, this pair could go up very quickly as market is very very short.

that said, long term downtrend is still clear, but this consolidation should lead to a rise towards 0.86 - 0.87 at least if the 0.8525 resistance gives way
  • #2,184
  • Jul 9, 2011 3:18am Jul 9, 2011 3:18am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=396

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398
  • #2,185
  • Jul 9, 2011 9:09am Jul 9, 2011 9:09am
ahoooooooooo yesterdays live trade... closed it a few minutes before nfp what a damn good decision
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchftrade15.jpg Size: 14 KB
consistency wins
  • #2,186
  • Jul 9, 2011 11:19am Jul 9, 2011 11:19am
Yes I agree there is NOT enough Swiss talk.. IT IS A MAJOR and an awesome pair to trade at that.
Quoting ra300z
I don't see much discussion of USDCHF very often...

According to the calendar, there is to be an interest rate statement in 9.5 hours. The prediction is that the rate will go up by a quarter percent.

I see that USDCHF has been on a tear lately going up about 280 pips since June 6th. That leads me to believe that the market thinks they won't increase interest rates. Otherwise the price would go down since increasing interest rates make a currency more valuable, thus USDCHF should be going down.

Any ideas on if they will go increase...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,187
  • Jul 9, 2011 11:22am Jul 9, 2011 11:22am
If it did pan out the yield would be so small that it might be a better idea to just short after completion.

Personally It just looks like typical PA for swissy to me.

Makes a reaction low, jumps up a bit and then hovers above that low until the next bloodbath...

Quoting clc4x
Attachment
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,188
  • Jul 9, 2011 11:27am Jul 9, 2011 11:27am
On the daily I had a call for a HUGE HS. It did pan out - that is the remnants of old TA. A bit hard to see on the weekly. it surely did reverse the pair.

Where were you guys when this pair was at 1.2 and falling!!

Quoting hutrader
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy FALLLLLLLING.GIF Size: 27 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,189
  • Jul 9, 2011 2:08pm Jul 9, 2011 2:08pm
Might the CHF be overbought and therefore a long position in the USD be a good pick? Which effects will the US debt ceiling have on the USD?
  • #2,190
  • Jul 9, 2011 8:48pm Jul 9, 2011 8:48pm
Quoting fammira
especially after the Parliament in Swiss is starting to discuss about the strong franc
Let them talk.

I do believe that they have come to the realization that intervention was the biggest waste of money and effort that they have ever engaged in.

If they try, it will fail once again.
  • #2,191
  • Jul 9, 2011 8:51pm Jul 9, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting iTrader
ahoooooooooo yesterdays live trade... closed it a few minutes before nfp what a damn good decision
Good move. Even though there were signs that NFP was going to beat expectations....why play with fire?

Glad it worked out well for you. It worked out pretty well for me as well.

  • #2,192
  • Jul 9, 2011 8:54pm Jul 9, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting XTrade
Yes I agree there is NOT enough Swiss talk.. IT IS A MAJOR and an awesome pair to trade at that.
I agree.

For now I have lost all faith in the USD against the CHF. I have been buying strong dips for months with fairly good success but it has been rather stressful.

For the first time in months I am debating entering a strong Short position.
  • #2,193
  • Jul 9, 2011 10:34pm Jul 9, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting Astroman
I agree.

For now I have lost all faith in the USD against the CHF. I have been buying strong dips for months with fairly good success but it has been rather stressful.

For the first time in months I am debating entering a strong Short position.
that's how market creates sentiment and act against it....you were willing to buy above 1, or even at 90, and now you want to sell at 0,83

when most of the traders change their mind, market players have succeded and trap them going in the opposite direction.

there is no sign of change in the main trend, but the last consolidation could lead to a strong drop in CHF, as positioning is now at really extreme levels.
In the last two weeks something changed, at least this is what seems to me.
From sell any rally to cover the dip, and now they are probably building long position on any drop.

I expect any news from Switzerland to be one of the potential trigger for a reverse in CHF.The bounce could be quick and powerful, and lead us to 0.95 in a few weeks.
  • #2,194
  • Jul 10, 2011 1:14am Jul 10, 2011 1:14am
Quoting Astroman
I agree.

For now I have lost all faith in the USD against the CHF. I have been buying strong dips for months with fairly good success but it has been rather stressful.

For the first time in months I am debating entering a strong Short position.
Dont! Look at the weekly chart. What it tells you? Wait for, maybe, 2-3 weeks and then enter long or put a pending long at 0.8550. The market will give you a nice present.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf monthly butterfly.gif Size: 18 KB
Price comes first; fundamentals come second
  • #2,195
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:11am Jul 11, 2011 7:11am
Good points fammira. This is certainly oversold, however it has been like this for months.

The main fundamental change that could limit the downtrend is the end of QE2 in USA that just happend (this is why we saw the mini up move recently, together with hype of US recovery that ultimately failed in last NFP), however, it is replaced by hidden QE3Light, enabling some momentum to remain in the downtrend.

So i feel it has some more down to go within this week, but not too much, unless there is a new development. Quarter earnings week in USA could provide direction, will be watching for sentiment on those.

PS: on a related note, EURCHF was a good sell given all the negative press created around eurozone within the last week, however, EZ fundamentals have not changed and this is just speculative attack to save the USD reserve currency status, so i am looking to buy that pair once people have realised it's dropped without good reason and start buying it again

Quoting fammira
they should probably be the last downward stops before a strong rise can commence

0.8275 lows could be restested but I don't expect them to be breached on a daily basis, especially after the Parliament in Swiss is starting to discuss about the strong franc

Moreover, if a deal will be found on the US debt, this pair could go up very quickly as market is very very short.

that said, long term downtrend is still clear, but this consolidation should lead to a rise towards 0.86 - 0.87 at least if the 0.8525 resistance gives way
  • #2,196
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:19am Jul 11, 2011 7:19am
Quoting Zyggy
Dont! Look at the weekly chart. What it tells you? Wait for, maybe, 2-3 weeks and then enter long or put a pending long at 0.8550. The market will give you a nice present.
Nice pic, but i am sure if you look back, you will find lots of butterflies that told you to buy in error...
  • #2,197
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:56am Jul 11, 2011 7:56am
Quoting challenger78
Good points fammira. This is certainly oversold, however it has been like this for months.

The main fundamental change that could limit the downtrend is the end of QE2 in USA that just happend (this is why we saw the mini up move recently, together with hype of US recovery that ultimately failed in last NFP), however, it is replaced by hidden QE3Light, enabling some momentum to remain in the downtrend.

So i feel it has some more down to go within this week, but not too much, unless there is a new development. Quarter earnings week in USA...

yes, I don't even want to try to take the low, but we are close
buying EURCHF as well today, if it breaks the low again tomorrow (last 1.1691), it should then rise big...with USDCHF leading
  • #2,198
  • Jul 11, 2011 8:00am Jul 11, 2011 8:00am
What's with the sudden spike?
  • #2,199
  • Jul 11, 2011 8:21am Jul 11, 2011 8:21am
Quoting Callen
What's with the sudden spike?
it was longs stop losses triggered, mood remains risk averse so the rally after the spike should be already over. The previous strong support at 8360 should now provide solid resistance.
  • #2,200
  • Jul 11, 2011 11:09am Jul 11, 2011 11:09am
Now we have bullish Gartley on both weekly and 1H TF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 1h butterfly.gif Size: 20 KB
Price comes first; fundamentals come second
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