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  • #482,461
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:59am Jul 7, 2011 3:59am
Quoting cloggie
On a side note, this is reflected in the change of currency reserves with USD dropping to a modern time low of 60%
Wow (it should be a lot lower IMO....lol).

Actually thats another indicator of how "lucky" are the FED and the dollar in general. The financial mess of the last couple of years and the catastrophic debt issues in the EZ have bought them some time and avoid a lot of pressure in the dollar given the poor state of the US macroeconomic side ("technical" default rumors, the messy and dangerous management of their deficits,etc).

In any case, I am not a dollar doomer, not because its strengths but because the alternatives are not ready or in the position to take the dollar leadership role in the next generation at least....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #482,462
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:02am Jul 7, 2011 4:02am
Quoting sisse
If we leave the debt problem aside. The main issue with interest rates is that they are making a very decent gap with the FED with the euro interest rate trending up and in other side the FED in "permanent" hold.

sisse
I agree with you brother.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #482,463
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:03am Jul 7, 2011 4:03am
Quoting Capn79
I'd park it in your trading account.

The largest a single strategy currency account/fund can handle is about a bn and a half, so where do you park a few hundred?
  • #482,464
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:03am Jul 7, 2011 4:03am
Quoting Stretch
What if it closes on 11, is it a 50/50 coin toss then?

IT never is 50/50
  • #482,465
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:06am Jul 7, 2011 4:06am
Quoting sisse
Wow (it should be a lot lower IMO....lol).

Actually thats another indicator of how "lucky" are the FED and the dollar in general. The financial mess of the last couple of years and the catastrophic debt issues in the EZ have bought them some time and avoid a lot of pressure in the dollar given the poor state of the US macroeconomic side ("technical" default rumors, the messy and dangerous management of their deficits,etc).

In any case, I am not a dollar doomer, not because its strengths but because the alternatives are not ready or in the...
Look at Pimco's holdings, the big boys are worried.
  • #482,466
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:06am Jul 7, 2011 4:06am
Quoting cloggie
The largest a single strategy currency account/fund can handle is about a bn and a half, so where do you park a few hundred?
various different places. live off the income it produces. not trading acc.
less hassle.
  • #482,467
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:08am Jul 7, 2011 4:08am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I agree with you brother.


guys do you think trichet will raise the repo rate by 25bps ? might be NO

i expect a good result from usd for today " such that EU can fly

better to wait for the news and be neutral till then >
finding A M S
  • #482,468
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:08am Jul 7, 2011 4:08am
Quoting cloggie
IT never is 50/50
Thought you would say that, haha. Thx
I would expect 97 now, (well 02 is a big number too I noticed, so that one first) but it looks PA thinks differently...
  • #482,469
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:09am Jul 7, 2011 4:09am
Quoting cloggie
The largest a single strategy currency account/fund can handle is about a bn and a half, so where do you park a few hundred?
Most of times not much choice but to invest large chunks in blue chips, gov. debt etc. A few percents in Brazil, China etc.
  • #482,470
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:11am Jul 7, 2011 4:11am
Quoting Mr. Aldi
Most of times not much choice but to invest large chunks in blue chips, gov. debt etc. A few percents in Brazil, China etc.

The point I am trying to get at, as that is how the conversation started, is that large institutions and CB's keep most in cash and bonds, and the place to be right now is the Euro, not the dollar. There has been a seismic shift this year that most here are either not seeing or not understanding. Even the large pensionfunds in the US are diversifying into euros right now away from the dollar.

There has been loads of dishing of the euro, but don't underestimate its importance on a global scale and the PIIGS issue is just a little annoyance.
  • #482,471
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:11am Jul 7, 2011 4:11am
Quoting cloggie
The largest a single strategy currency account/fund can handle is about a bn and a half, so where do you park a few hundred?
So after I max out the amount I place in your account... As you've mentioned before, the Euro is winning the race to the bottom with the debt issues (PIIGS)... so I'd want to park it where it would have the most liquidity... and as the Fed's IR rate now is 0%, I wouldn't want to park it where it can't not make money... I would feel better about parking it in USD if the cronies in D.C. actually did something to the resolve the spending & debt issues, as that would strengthen the economic outlook of the dollar.

Is this the right frame of mind, or am I missing the target?

Thanks,
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #482,472
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:14am Jul 7, 2011 4:14am
Let's see how far this can go, already scaled for +20 pips. 4341 resistance.

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  • #482,473
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:15am Jul 7, 2011 4:15am
Quoting Capn79
So after I max out the amount I place in your account... As you've mentioned before, the Euro is winning the race to the bottom with the debt issues (PIIGS)... so I'd want to park it where it would have the most liquidity... and as the Fed's IR rate now is 0%, I wouldn't want to park it where it can't not make money... I would feel better about parking it in USD if the cronies in D.C. actually did something to the resolve the spending & debt issues, as that would strengthen the economic outlook of the dollar.

Is this the right frame of mind, or...

As I posted in an answer to Sisse above, the USD reserve has gone down from 75 a decade and half ago to barely above 60, they did not put it in Renminbi or funny South American currencies, it is all parked in euros as that is the only global currency that is actually giving you a return and has a CB whose mandate is inflation only, not unemployment as it is with the FED.

The US has a long way to go to solve its problems, yes it is a race between 2 ugly sisters and for a while the dollar was winning, but as the ECB has set a path here that no other currency has taken yet, it is slowly winning the race. PIIGS issue is only a few percent of the eurozone and the total exposure is less then 5% of EU GDP, that is peanuts. Germany alone can handle all of it, and surely will.

I posted a few weeks back, what the EU means to Germany with unemployment below 6, the lowest since euro inception, and multinationals growing at 10%+ a year and the DAX heading for alltime highs. Germany is the biggest benefactor of the eurozone.
  • #482,474
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:15am Jul 7, 2011 4:15am
Quoting Stretch
nice
So close above of the hourly will take us to 21, 38
close below 97, 90, 83
?
What if it closes on 11, is it a 50/50 coin toss then?
8a.m. (GMT) candle closed below at 295.3 -> should be going down ?!
(but we're up since ... )
  • #482,475
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:16am Jul 7, 2011 4:16am
Quoting Capn79
Sisse,
With the ISM coming in lower than expected, doesn't that have implications on a lower NFP number? So if that comes in lower tomorrow, and should the ECB hike their rate as expected... it begs to wonder how to gauge the overall impact of the debt risk in the eurozone, as the USD continues to weaken yet the EU is somewhat indecisive... THoughts?

-Capn
ISM was in the mean not really lower in reality. More important IMO, is not the few ticks below but it confirms the last 3 months sluggish mood of the US economy (barely expanding ...compare it with the years when the US was on track).

Difficult if not impossible to forecast NFP only based in that ISM. Wait for ADP today for a better reference.

I see the picture a little bit different IMO, debt EZ is weaken (after the French and German banks cleared their holding in Greek debt in the last couple of months) and the US is in a comatose state.... I am inclined on a trigger from the US side in favour of the dollar. When? that the 1 mill question but NFP this week can give us some hints....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #482,476
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:16am Jul 7, 2011 4:16am
Quoting sisse
Wow (it should be a lot lower IMO....lol).

Actually thats another indicator of how "lucky" are the FED and the dollar in general. The financial mess of the last couple of years and the catastrophic debt issues in the EZ have bought them some time and avoid a lot of pressure in the dollar given the poor state of the US macroeconomic side ("technical" default rumors, the messy and dangerous management of their deficits,etc).

In any case, I am not a dollar doomer, not because its strengths but because the alternatives are not ready or in the...

nice philosophy
Robitussin, for the whole family
  • #482,477
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:16am Jul 7, 2011 4:16am
Quoting cloggie
The point I am trying to get at, as that is how the conversation started, is that large institutions and CB's keep most in cash and bonds, and the place to be right now is the Euro, not the dollar. There has been a seismic shift this year that most here are either not seeing or not understanding. Even the large pensionfunds in the US are diversifying into euros right now away from the dollar.

There has been loads of dishing of the euro, but don't underestimate its importance on a global scale and the PIIGS issue is just a little annoyance.
With rates getting raised in the EZ, how big/long would this shift be should the issues with the PIIGS impact the larger players (france, germany)?
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #482,478
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:17am Jul 7, 2011 4:17am
Bullish divergence on 15 min chart.
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  • #482,479
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:18am Jul 7, 2011 4:18am
Just jumping in with 55pips SL, you will got 550 pips return
No one wants to be defeated~
  • #482,480
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:19am Jul 7, 2011 4:19am
Quoting Capn79
With rates getting raised in the EZ, how big/long would this shift be should the issues with the PIIGS impact the larger players (france, germany)?

For us it all depends on the second half of the pair, the US needs to take action rather sooner then later. Their indecision is hurting them more internationally then they realise domestically.

The PIIGS are not really going to impact on France/Germany, total worst case exposure is less then 1Trn, that is peanuts compared to 10Trn+ a year. The ECB has a great policy of buying peripheral debt and desentisising it weekly, that policy does not increase the money supply and the big boys/CB's like that, it gives confidence to the underlying currency unlike QE.

Did you catch the austerity package that Italy quietly passed last week? Did not thnk so, you can take that "I" out of the PIIGS for now.
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