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  • #482,441
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:30am Jul 7, 2011 3:30am
Quoting Barata
And what is the markets reaction you expect to the probable rate hike?

Barring any better then expected news from the US, up.
  • #482,442
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:37am Jul 7, 2011 3:37am
site problems, anyone, or just me?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #482,443
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:37am Jul 7, 2011 3:37am
Quoting pkimnyc
unless you treat it like a business, you won't make it. my 2c and just a friendly advice.
What I said appears to have been misinterpreted... perhaps if I had put after it it would have been understood better.
I operate with clear definite rules, if I break them I lose BIG!
  • #482,444
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:38am Jul 7, 2011 3:38am
Quoting cloggie
As to the ECB today, I fully expect 2 more rate hikes this year as long as Trichet keeps using the V-word. Do I expect a hike today? Very, very probable. The ECB mandate differs from the FED and as we have gone down this road there is no turning back anymore, so if I had a vote I would vote yes today and I expect a majority to do so.
absolutely agree. i see at least one more rate hike this year as well.....

guess a hike today is aunavoidable..

lets c

take care guys
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #482,445
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:40am Jul 7, 2011 3:40am
Quoting PayTheLimit
site problems, anyone, or just me?
Yea, some site problems here too.
  • #482,446
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:41am Jul 7, 2011 3:41am
Quoting PayTheLimit
site problems, anyone, or just me?
me too
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #482,447
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:41am Jul 7, 2011 3:41am
Quoting cloggie
Barring any better then expected news from the US, up.
I think that mkt is expecting hike, and if so it is as expected 0,25, maybe no change will happen.

I think it would be much bigger move on mkt if there will be no hike. Just oppinion...
  • #482,448
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:45am Jul 7, 2011 3:45am
Quoting cloggie
As to the ECB today, I fully expect 2 more rate hikes this year as long as Trichet keeps using the V-word. Do I expect a hike today? Very, very probable. The ECB mandate differs from the FED and as we have gone down this road there is no turning back anymore, so if I had a vote I would vote yes today and I expect a majority to do so.
If we leave the debt problem aside. The main issue with interest rates is that they are making a very decent gap with the FED with the euro interest rate trending up and in other side the FED in "permanent" hold. From a strictly monetary perspective and without debt in the middle, ECB with rates at 2% or above and FED at the same levels the pair should be trading at all time highs 1.60xx and beyond...

That's why I think NFP tomorrow is even more important than usual (and the next US macro numbers in general) and are key for the future of the pair when the debt risk issue is resolved (any solution, default or not)....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #482,449
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:49am Jul 7, 2011 3:49am
just checking eu sudden tanking last time , bear continued & 1 more leg down was there & with break limit 4327 more fall all expected but this move apparently with chf news , wherase no abnormal reaction in chf crosses or any other pair perhaps ! just fishy enough .false move if should reverse in no time !!
now wavewise 1 leg down perfect & only to see if any extensions down or not , more down like 4247, 4170 are possible levels from earlier .

will wait next session for new set up with update charts to see .
good trading specially luck for all today at the same time .

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #482,450
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:49am Jul 7, 2011 3:49am
Quoting sisse
If we leave the debt problem aside. The main issue with interest rates is that they are making a very decent gap with the FED with the euro interest rate trending up and in other side the FED in "permanent" hold. From a strictly monetary perspective and without debt in the middle, ECB with rates at 2% or above and FED at the same levels the pair should be trading at all time highs 1.60xx and beyond...

That's why I think NFP tomorrow is even more important than usual (and the next US macro numbers in general) and are key for the future of the...

On a side note, this is reflected in the change of currency reserves with USD dropping to a modern time low of 60%
  • #482,451
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:51am Jul 7, 2011 3:51am
Trichet starts his conference at 1:30pm GMT time, I guess there's a good chance the euro will plummet around 100pips as it always does when he opens his mouth
  • #482,452
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:52am Jul 7, 2011 3:52am
Quoting cloggie
The mid TF's are technically itching for an upward correction, the fundies are just not helping much this morning. I am waiting for a reaction to 11 again. Will then make up my mind for an intraday trade. Of course for any of that to happen 82 needs to hold



This ain't rocketscience.....
  • #482,453
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:54am Jul 7, 2011 3:54am
Quoting sisse
If we leave the debt problem aside. The main issue with interest rates is that they are making a very decent gap with the FED with the euro interest rate trending up and in other side the FED in "permanent" hold. From a strictly monetary perspective and without debt in the middle, ECB with rates at 2% or above and FED at the same levels the pair should be trading at all time highs 1.60xx and beyond...

That's why I think NFP tomorrow is even more important than usual (and the next US macro numbers in general) and are key for the future of...
Sisse,
With the ISM coming in lower than expected, doesn't that have implications on a lower NFP number? So if that comes in lower tomorrow, and should the ECB hike their rate as expected... it begs to wonder how to gauge the overall impact of the debt risk in the eurozone, as the USD continues to weaken yet the EU is somewhat indecisive... THoughts?

-Capn
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #482,454
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:55am Jul 7, 2011 3:55am
Quoting Capn79
Sisse,
With the ISM coming in lower than expected, doesn't that have implications on a lower NFP number? So if that comes in lower tomorrow, and should the ECB hike their rate as expected... it begs to wonder how to gauge the overall impact of the debt risk in the eurozone, as the USD continues to weaken yet the EU is somewhat indecisive... THoughts?

-Capn

IF you had a few hundred billion in cash, where would you park it for the longer term if your scenario plays out.
  • #482,455
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:56am Jul 7, 2011 3:56am
Quoting cloggie


This ain't rocketscience.....
getting those levels is..

mine is 19...but again...you nailed it better
always watch your leveles compare to mine

  • #482,456
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:57am Jul 7, 2011 3:57am
Quoting cloggie


This ain't rocketscience.....
Isn't that what Edison said after he finally perfected the light bulb? (after 1,000 tries)
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #482,457
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:58am Jul 7, 2011 3:58am
Quoting bradu

mine is 19...but again...you nailed it better

Been doing it for a few days longer then you.
  • #482,458
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:58am Jul 7, 2011 3:58am
Quoting cloggie
IF you had a few hundred billion in cash, where would you park it for the longer term if your scenario plays out.
I'd park it in your trading account.
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #482,459
  • Jul 7, 2011 3:59am Jul 7, 2011 3:59am
Quoting Capn79
I'd park it in your trading account.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #482,460
  • Edited 4:24am Jul 7, 2011 3:59am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting cloggie


This ain't rocketscience.....
nice
So close above of the hourly will take us to 21, 38?
close below 97, 90, 83?

What if it closes on 11, is it a 50/50 coin toss then?
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